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2014 Season Review: Alec Martinez

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I love Alec Martinez. Please keep that in mind before you write your angry comment.

dCorsi Table


Martinez's dCorsi (2011-14)

YEAREXPECTED CORSI FORACTUAL CORSI FORDCORSI
2010-113.8911.87.91
2011-1211.2625.2814.02
2012-1313.2318.835.6
2013-1414.8914.35-0.54

(stats via Behind the Net and @mimicohero)

Before we get into his positives or negatives, there's something important that needs to be stated about Alec. It's neither a positive nor a negative of his season, because it's not his fault narratives are a thing. But Alec Martinez is not "clutch". "Clutch" does not exist.

Yes, he scored two key goals to help the Kings win the 2014 Stanley Cup, first in overtime of game 7 against the Blackhawks and then in double overtime of game 5 against the Rangers. Obviously no one would deny that those two goals were huge. What I would take issue with is that this represents some kind of skill or unique trait of Alec's. Think about it for a second: when someone is talking about a "skill", does that not imply a strong aspect of repeatability? What, exactly, was the repeatable skill displayed by Martinez in his two overtime goals? Let's take another look at them both real quick:

First of all, you should go read Eric's awesome post on this goal to see what the Kings did as a team to set it up. But that's not our focus here: what, pray tell, did Martinez do on this goal that could possibly be called "clutch" or repeatable? He stands at the point with his stick down, like basically any defenseman would do when he's completely uncovered and his forwards have the puck down low, waits for the pass, and fires off an extremely routine wrist shot. The fact that said wrist shot happened to hit a Chicago defender and take a funny bounce past Corey Crawford and into the net comes down to everyone's favorite word: luck. Was it "clutch" that Martinez happened to be there to take the shot? Because I sure don't see how it was "clutch" that it hit someone and bounced in.

Here's his other supposedly "clutch" goal. This time Alec does deserve quite a bit more credit for his role in the play: he makes a beautiful exit of the defensive zone, skating it out, passing it over to Kyle Clifford and staying with his two forwards on the rush, and he's in perfect position to tap in the rebound after Tyler Toffoli makes a great shot to get him said rebound. But again, there's still a strong luck component here, because there's no rebound for Martinez to tap in if Toffoli didn't take said great shot. If Toffoli's shot goes wide, or Lundqvist is able to kick the rebound out further away, Martinez never has his tap-in and we're talking about someone else scoring the Stanley Cup game winner (I suppose it's possible the Rangers win the game instead, but pssh, let's try to be realistic here). Was it "clutch" by Martinez to make a nice zone exit, join the rush well, and be in great position to tap in a fortuitous bounce that came right onto his stick? Nope. He's a good hockey player, and he does those things all the time. It just so happened that this time everything worked out perfectly. Embrace randomness.

But with that out of the way, let's talk about his actual season....

Positives

Alec had his strongest season of his career from a goal-scoring perspective, putting up eleven goals to go along with eleven assists in 61 games. His 22 points were also a career high, beating out a previous high of 16 points (5-11) in 60 games during the 2010-11 season. He also set a new career high for games played after only playing 51 in 2011-12 and 27 of 48 in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, so it would appear that #freeAlecMartinez is now a thing of the past. Again, he's a very good hockey player and almost a ridiculously good third-pairing defenseman, so having him in the lineup regularly going forward is very much a positive, even if it may have taken some luck on his part to finally earn that regular spot (more on that in a second).

Martinez was also very good at helping the Kings generate shots on goal on their power play. His 54.7 SF/60 on the man advantage ranked fifth on the Kings among skaters who played at least 41 games last season, and he was second only to Jake Muzzin's 55.6 SF/60 on the power play among Kings defensemen. Yes, he was ahead of Drew Doughty (51.1) in this stat, although Doughty played a lot more on the PP than Martinez did. This was a good bounce-back for Martinez after he had dropped all the way down to 32.7 SF/60 on the PP last year in his limited playing time, basically matching his 2011-12 numbers (54.9).

Alec's scoring chance numbers were okay. He was involved in 1.1 chances/60 minutes he played last year, which put him at fourth among Kings defensemen, behind Doughty (2.1), Muzzin & Voynov (both 1.4), but ahead of Mitchell (0.6), Regehr (0.4), and Greene (0.2). Probably about what you would expect, I think. On the power play he was great though, involved in 8.5 chances per 60 minutes. That's ahead of every Kings defenseman except Willie Mitchell of all people (8.7), including Doughty (8.2), Muzzin (7.2), and Voynov (4.9). Between this and his SF/60 numbers it's pretty clear he had a great year on the power play, and is a hell of a weapon for the Kings' second unit.

Negatives

Perhaps the oddest part of all the positive attention Martinez received this season was that it was easily his worst year as a King from a puck possession standpoint. Look at his dCorsi numbers: he significantly outperformed his expected Corsi for three straight seasons, but this past year he dropped off a ton, from a positive difference of 5.6 in 2012-13 to actually being slightly underwater at -0.54. The drop wasn't quite as severe in his Corsi rel- he went from being a positive 3.2% in 2012-13 to -0.3% this past season, a difference of -3.5 in Corsi rel as compared to a difference of -6.14 in dCorsi- which is probably explained by his easier competition compared to the rest of the team. Scroll down and check out the Kings' usage chart and you'll see that he faces much weaker competition than literally every other defenseman, and his zone starts are quite a bit easier as well. Given these factors, his weak Corsi numbers are definitely a negative. Hopefully he can bounce back next year.

Martinez received so much positive attention from those aforementioned strong offensive numbers in the traditional counting stats, but he is unlikely to score double-digit goals or 20+ points again. Alec's 8.6 sh% this past year was the highest of his career, besting his 8.1 sh% from 2010-11 and way up from his 2011-12 & 2012-13 shooting percentages (5.3% & 3.9%, respectively). It's not likely his true shooting talent is 8%, so expect his goals to be back in the single digits next year. In addition to his own shooting percentage being so high, his teammates also shot higher than usual when he was on the ice last year too (7.4% last year, compared to 4.5% in 2011-12 and 5.2% in 2012-13), which means his assist total probably has some room to regress too, though maybe not to the same extreme as his goals. Bottom line, he probably will be back to a mid-single digits goals/mid-teens points player next year.

His zone entry numbers were also a negative last year, as Nick outlined in his post on the subject, describing his 20% carry-in rate as "paltry" (for comparison's sake, Muzzin & Voynov both had identical 34% carry-in rates). He needs to try carrying the puck in more and dumping it in less next season; perhaps with a more solidified role on the team he'll feel more comfortable trying things and less like any mistake he makes will send him back to the press box. As a result of failing to carry in the puck so much, his 0.35 shots per entry was the worst on the team last year, tied for that "honor" with Willie Mitchell. But when he did carry the puck over the line himself, the Kings had 0.78 shots per carry-in, which was good for 8th on the team. Skate the puck Alec!

2000 WWF Superstar Comparable: Rikishi

Rikishi_medium

Before his surprising run in 2000, Rikishi had already been around for quite a long time, although few fans (including yours truly) even realized it then. Originally he was 1/2 of the Headshrinkers tag team in the early-to-mid 90s, but after that run ended he struggled to stay on WWF television with a few forgettable gimmicks. First he was given the gimmick of MAKIN' A DIFFERENCE FATU, a street-wise Samoan who survived a drive-by shooting (apparently this really happened) and rose up to be a positive role model, for the kids! Shockingly, this didn't get over at all, which deprived us of the WWF bringing in his cousins from ECW, the Samoan Gangsta Party (they did appear on TV a few times in the crowd during his matches, but they never even actually confronted him before the whole stupid thing was dropped), to feud with him over whether or not making a difference was a good thing, I guess? Yeah. Then he was repackaged as THE SULTAN, a masked evil Arab (yes, the WWF misrepresenting a Samoan's race, I'm shocked too). That didn't get over either, and Rikishi basically disappeared from television for more than three years.

In November of 1999, Rikishi suddenly reappeared on television as this big fat guy wearing a thong and beating jobbers. He then began teaming with Too Cool, basically a pair of dancing goofball idiots, and by a stroke of dumb luck this somehow became ridiculously popular. After the three of them would win their match, Rikishi would go to leave before Too Cool would produce MAGIC SHADES~~~ that Rikishi would put on and immediately become, uh, funky. The three would then dance together, to the delight of the crowd. The following is an actual quote from Rikishi's Wikipedia page: "The sight of a fat man in a thong dancing deceptively well became popular." Yes. Indeed.

So Rikishi took this ludicrous gimmick of being an enormous fat man who liked to dance in a thong and rub his butt in people's faces during matches (it was called the Stinkface, and it was indeed disgusting in case you were wondering) and almost inexplicably managed to become one of the most popular wrestlers in the WWF with it. He had a memorable bout with WWF Champion Triple H on an episode of Raw and a short run as Intercontiental Champion, culminating in perhaps his career highlight when the legitimately 400+ pound man somehow jumped off the top of a steel cage onto another man without killing either one of them. But perhaps feeling the gimmick didn't have legs as a main eventer (and they might have been right), the WWF turned him into a bad guy late in 2000, revealing that he was the one who ran over Stone Cold Steve Austin with a car in late 1999, to try and take him to the "next level". For some reason he continued wearing a giant thong even after his heel turn, which even as a know-nothing kid I knew was really stupid. Shockingly, a monster heel Samoan in a thong who runs people over with cars and talks about how he did it for the Samoan people didn't get over. I know, I'm shocked too. He did have an awesome heel theme song though! I'M A BAD MANNNNN!

Like Alec Martinez, Rikishi was a solid performer who ended up in the right place at the right time after being forced to sit on the sidelines for a while. But after his ill-advised heel turn, Rikishi never really came close to his 2000 peak again, even after the WWF realized their mistake and turned him back to his original fun-loving babyface character in May of 2001. Martinez, like Rikishi, will probably struggle to reach his own highs of 2013-14 again, even though he'll likely continue to be a solid player.

Going Forward

Martinez needs to carry the puck in more, and he needs to have a possession bounce-back next season. If both those things happen, he will be great again (even though his goal and point production would still likely drop off a bit). But even if he remains what he was in 2013-14, he'll still be well above average as far as third-pairing defensemen go, I think.

Grade

Let's give him a C. Really I think C+ would fit him best, and maybe B- would work too. His possession stats were weak, especially given the competition and zone starts, and he really needs to carry the puck in more than he did this past season. But on the other hand, he was great on the power play in a possibly sustainable way, so he does have that working in his favor. And he certainly wasn't bad or an anchor or anything at even strength. But he's shown in the past he can be better, and I think he will be again.

Poll
Grade Alec Martinez's season.

  57 votes |Results


Jewels from the Crown's Second Annual Top 25 Under 25

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It's August again, and Kings news has largely ground to a halt, so as part of our ongoing attempt to entertain and inform you, we present our second annual Top 25 Under 25 special.

Overview

The Top 25 Under 25, for those of you who missed last year's inaugural edition, is exactly what it sounds like - a countdown of the organisation's twenty-five most promising young prospects and players under age 25. The Kings are still one of the younger teams in the league, although they're not quite as fresh-faced and youthful as they have been in the recent past, with team management focusing on continuing the championship success, holding on to performance rather than potential. Now that the Cup has been re-captured, the Top 25 Under 25 is a good chance to look forward, take stock of what's in the pipeline, and re-evaluate the organisation's depth.

Qualifying players

Aged-out graduates from last year's list include: Dwight King (woo), Jordan Nolan (boo), Keaton Ellerby (lol), and Jake Muzzin (dreamy sigh). Also no longer on the list are Linden Vey, Brandon Kozun, Nick Deslauriers, and Hudson Fasching, who were traded. The Kings chose not to sign Tomas Hyka and relinquished his rights.

41 players qualified, as listed below (with ages as of October 1, 2014, approximating the start of the regular season):

NameAgePositionLeagueContract status
Adrian Kempe18RWSHLunsigned
Jacob Middleton18DOHLunsigned
Spencer Watson18RWOHLunsigned
Matthew Mistele18LWOHLunsigned
Alec Dillon18GBCHLunsigned
Roland McKeown18DOHLunsigned
Dominik Kubalik19LWOHLunsigned
Valentin Zykov19LWQMJHLRFA in '18
Jake Marchment19COHLunsigned
Michael Amadio19COHLunsigned
Alex Lintuniemi19DOHLunsigned
Justin Auger20RWOHLunsigned
Nick Ebert20DOHLRFA in '18
Zachary Leslie20DOHLunsigned
Kurtis MacDermid20DOHLRFA in '18
Steven Johnson20DUSHLunsigned
Jonny Brodzinski21CNCHCunsigned
Andrew Crescenzi21RWAHLRFA in '16
Michael Mersch21LWBig-10RFA in '18
Nikolay Prokhorkin21LWKHL???!!!???
Colin Miller21DAHLRFA in '17
Alex Roach21DWHLRFA in '17
Patrik Bartosak21GWHLRFA in '17
Scott Sabourin22RWAHLRFA in '17
Tanner Pearson22LWNHLRFA in '16
Tyler Toffoli22RWNHLRFA in '16
Maxim Kitsyn22LWAHL/ECHLRFA in '17
Joel Lowry22LWECACunsigned
Nick Shore22CAHLRFA in '16
Jordan Weal22CAHLRFA in '16
Derek Forbort22DAHLRFA in '17
Kevin Gravel22DNCHCunsigned
Paul LaDue22DNCHCunsigned
Kyle Clifford23LWNHLRFA in '16
Brayden McNabb23DAHLRFA in '17
Andy Andreoff23LWAHLRFA in '16
Jean-Francois Berube23GAHLRFA in '17
Drew Doughty24DNHLUFA in '20
Slava Voynov24DNHLUFA in '20
Martin Jones24GNHLRFA in '16
Nic Dowd24CNCHCRFA in '16


Methodology & results

We expanded the voting pool quite a bit this year. In addition to most of the Jewels current staff (Robert, Eric, Nick, John, Andrew, Niesy, Robyn, and me), we also enlisted the awesome ladies of Kings podcast Thx Bud (Chanelle & Diane), retired/dead Battle of California Kings writer Rudy Kelly, current BoC Kings writer Ryan Dunn, Kings reporter for The Hockey Writers Sheng Peng, Kings guru at Hockey's Future & Hockey Buzz Jason Lewis, LA Kings Insider Jon Rosen, and his trusty intern James Nicholson. Look at us, making friends and influencing people.

We each did our rankings using the same basic method taken from the Habs Eye on the Prize Top 25 Under 25, asking ourselves the questions: would you trade any player straight-up for any other one? Who is more valuable going forward to the team? If choosing betweentwo players, who would you rather have from a pure talent perspective?

Despite the larger number of ballots, the votes were a little more concentrated this year. Last year, only three players (Dominik Kubalik, Zach Leslie, and Joel Lowry) out of 40 failed to get a vote. This year, Alec Dillon, Dominik Kubalik, Jake Marchment, Justin Auger, Kurtis MacDermid, Steven Johnson, and Joel Lowry all failed to garner a single vote, leading me to ask - seriously, what is a Joel Lowry?

The players who received votes but didn't make the Top 25, in descending order of popularity, are: Alex Roach, Maxim Kitsyn, Alex Lintuniemi, Paul LaDue, Andrew Crescenzi, Matthew Mistele, Scott Sabourin, Michael Amadio, and Jacob Middleton. Most of this isn't surprising - Lintuniemi, Mistele, Amadio, and Middleton are new draftees, LaDue was a 2013 2012 draftee who had a quiet 2013-14 season, Roach was an unheralded free agent signing who didn't make a huge mark on the WHL, and Crescenzi looks to be an AHL lifer - but the decline in Kitsyn's fortune is interesting to note. Formerly one of the Kings' most well-regarded prospects, Kitsyn continued his recent decline with an absolutely awful 2013-14 that included a demotion to the ECHL. While he may yet turn it around, he's looking like he's trending towards bust.

Well, this got dark.

Back to sunshine - our countdown kicks off Wednesday, with Nick's profile of Mystery Player #25. Until then, let us know what you think, share what your personal ranking would be, or defend Joel Lowry's honour in the comments. Get excited!!

Jonathan Quick is overrated in NHL 15

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EA Sports continues to tease its release of NHL 15. On Monday it released its top five rated goalies, which led to some scuttlebutt.

Sports video game player ratings are rather arbitrary, so there's not much use getting too upset about a number applied to a virtual character. But that doesn't mean they can't still be critiqued.

First, we'll say that EA Sports has been quite good when it comes to its NHL product. Last July, NHL 14 was ranked the best sports video game at the annual E3 expo. This year's edition, NHL 15, is set to come out in early September, and EA has been counting down the time by slowly revealing different elements of the game.

On Monday, they rolled out the top five rated goaltenders in the game.

So who did EA rank ahead of the likes of Carey Price and Tuukkaa Rask?

No. 1 was Henrik Lundqvist, something that probably didn't and shouldn't surprise too many hockey fans. But coming in at No. 2 in a tie with Lundqvist?

2. Jonathan Quick - L.A. Kings - 93 Overall

The former Conn Smythe winner and two time Stanley Cup champion has been one of the league's top netminders for the past five years. Quick challenges shooters with (91) Aggressiveness - but uses his amazing Athletic ability with (91) Speed and Agility to get back into position.

Over the past five years, it's quite difficult to call Quick a top netminder.

His save percentage among active goalies to have played at least 200 games doesn't even crack the top 10. He's coming off a season in which his team won the Stanley Cup, but did so largely in spite of his efforts. In 49 games this past season, Quick posted a .927 save percentage in 5v5 situations when the score was close, which was just the 13th-highest mark in the league. (It's probably not a coincidence that his overall save percentage in the last five years also comes in at 13th.)

Quick didn't fare much better in the 2014 postseason. His overall 5v5 save percentage dipped to .918, and during one stretch he surrendered 13 goals in the final three games of the Western Conference Final against theChicago Blackhawks.

What's more peculiar is that while Lundqvist comes in ahead of Quick on the list, both players have identical overall rankings. Thankfully it's just a video game.

2014 Season Review: Willie Mitchell

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Two Cups in three years? AUTOMATIC A

dCorsi Table


Mitchell's dCorsi (2011-14)

Corsi OnExpected CorsidCorsi
2010-112.6643.173-0.509
2011-129.7310.368-0.636
2013-1411.81412.743-0.929

(stats via Behind the Net and @mimicohero)

Positives

Willie Mitchell has a well-defined role. He kills penalties. He plays defense. He gets paired with a younger, more offensively talented defenseman and handles things on the back end. It's hard to argue that he didn't succeed in those roles, for the most part. The Kings' PK finished 11th overall in the NHL, killing 83.1% of their penalties this season. The Kings took home the Jennings Trophy after allowing the fewest goals in the NHL. Alec Martinez and Slava Voynov, despite each struggling at times, each put up career-high point totals. And both Martinez and Voynov performed about as well with Mitchell as they did without him, which I'll mark as a positive because Mitchell turned 37 in April.

The big concern coming into 2013-14 was injury, and aside from a nasty-looking injury sustained in Game 6 of the first round, Mitchell played big minutes without his health failing him. (Mitchell missed the Anaheim series, allowing Jeff Schultz to become an unlikely contributor to the Cup run.) Even when Mitchell looked a bit slow out there, he was still averaging 20 minutes per game and generally not freaking anyone out in his own zone. Mitchell was alternately a second-pairing and third-pairing guy, and that seemed like the right spot for him.

He also appeared to have a positive impact "in the room," but we'll save that for a bit farther down...

Negatives

... because we have to put the sentimental value of Mitchell aside for a couple paragraphs.

After a year off, Mitchell's performance did decline in comparison to 2010-11 and 2011-12. That is to be expected, to a degree. Mitchell, however, did not get the tough assignments he had received in past years; though he started in his own zone fairly often, the quality of his competition was just fifth on the Kings. His playoff assignments were a bit tougher relative to his own team, but again, they were on a tier with Robyn Regehr and below Doughty, Muzzin, and Voynov. This made it a little disheartening that Mitchell took 18 more penalties than he drew, which was the worst cumulative figure on the team. In fairness, though, Greene had a -14 in half as many games, so he's not at that level.

Mitchell gets a bit of a pass for his relatively weak possession numbers, though when playing with Alec Martinez (a past possession dynamo) and Slava Voynov (who the Kings have invested in quite a bit), you'd expect Mitchell to really see the benefits. And his zone entry numbers and scoring chance numbers are predictably weak, but if you were expecting Willie Mitchell to really shine in those departments, you don't watch the Kings enough.

In the end, there was simply no room for Mitchell on next year's Kings. Chalk that up to a lack of cap room, but also chalk it up to the Kings' apparent belief that Robyn Regehr is a better option on the blueline than Mitchell in the coming years. Given Mitchell's age, the Kings might not be wrong.

Pokemon Comparable: Slowbro

Slowbro_medium

(Note: I know absolutely nothing about Roman history or professional wrestling.)

Slowbro is an evolved water/psychic type Pokemon. His strongest traits are his defense and his special abilities, while he is (obviously) one of the slowest Pokemon in the game. Apparently, in his previous form, Slowbro fished using his tail; now, however, he swims to catch his prey because of that thing on his tail.

That thing, by the way, is another Pokemon. The Pokemon (a Shellder, if you were curious) persistently holds on to the tail of Slowbro. It's a beneficial relationship for both sides. Slowbro has lost the ability to feel pain due to Shellder's poison, and is actually strengthened by the Shellder's presence. The Shellder feeds on Slowbro's scraps and is essentially protected by the presence of a larger, stronger, more experienced Pokemon. (Way too much information on Slowbro here.)

Mitchell, of course, is an avid fisherman, but more importantly, he has formed a mutually beneficial relationship with a number of younger defensive partners. Drew Doughty, Slava Voynov, and Alec Martinez are among those who have latched on to Mitchell and grown from his experience, while the presence of those up-and-coming defensemen has allowed Mitchell to flourish in a more defensive role. Doesn't seem very hygienic, though.

Highlight

This was where he got injured. Hell of a kill.

(He also provided the shot which Dustin Brown tipped in in overtime of Game 2.)

Going Forward

Mitchell will now make a large amount of money to do his mentor thing in Florida. In particular, he's the odds-on favorite to play with #1 overall pick Aaron Ekblad. I imagine they'd be happy to see him flourish on the level that Drew Doughty did, though in Doughty's case, he had a fantastic season under his belt even before Mitchell showed up.

The Kings are probably going to miss Mitchell quite a bit from a leadership standpoint. He was easily the oldest member of the Cup-winning squad, more than three years older than Robyn Regehr, and it showed in the respect he got from teammates and fans alike. It felt like he was here a longer than four years, didn't it?

From a hockey standpoint, they'll miss him, in the sense that giving Robyn Regehr or Matt Greene his minutes is a bit of a downgrade. It might not be as large a fall as expected, though. The biggest question is how long it will take Brayden McNabb to find his place in the Kings' lineup; if he's capable of playing decent minutes by the end of the season, letting Mitchell walk was the right move.

Grade

After a long injury layoff, expectations for Willie Mitchell were varied. Most of us had forgotten about said injury layoff by the time the playoffs rolled around, and that speaks to the workmanlike performance he put in this season. I'll give him a B to send him on his way.

Poll
Grade Willie Mitchell's season.

  23 votes |Results

Wilderness Walk: Preseason Distractions

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Preseason football is finally here to distract us until hockey starts. Thanks NFL!

All this video game talk has got me thinking, which can be a very dangerous thing.

Here are my top video game picks

My top NHL video games:

  1. NHL Hitz (just awesome, giant people, crazy hits)
  2. NHL 05 (50% of one timers went in)
  3. NHL 07 (skill stick)

My top Multiplayer games (non sport games)

  1. Super Smash Bros. (Melee, not  F'ing Brawl)
  2. Halo 1 & 2 (the good old days)
  3. Mario Kart 64 (still the best in the series)
  4. Star Wars Pod Racer 64 (Just 2 player, but it gets heated pretty quickly)

With that out of the way.

On to Your Walk

MN Wild News

Slovak legend, NHL All-Star Pavol Demitra to be honored in documentary - NHL.com - News RIP Pavol Demitra, outstanding hockey player.

Watch Every Goal Kyle Brodziak Scored Last Season
Wait I thought he was shutout last season?

MN Wild Prospects Remain At USA Junior Evaluation Camp
Minnesota still has a few players in play, including are top 2 picks from the draft.

Q & A With Matt Dumba - Minnesota Wild | Features
A nice interview with Wild prospect Matt Dumba. Hopefully he takes the next step this year.

Other Hockey News

Did Ticketmaster spoil details for Sharks, Kings NHL Stadium Series game? | Puck Daddy - Yahoo Sports
Ticketmaster wouldn't do that would they? When will it be our turn?

NHL Stadium Series returning to California in February 2015? - CBSSports.com
California continues to get outdoor game love.

Connor McDavid eager to get draft-eligible season underway - NHL.com - NHL Insider
The next Crosby is ready to prove that he is the next Crosby!!

Columbus Blue Jackets top 10 prospects led by Alexander Wennberg - NHL.com's 30 in 30 package: 2014-15
I remember a time when Columbus didn't have prospects

Nathan Horton's performance headlines Columbus Blue Jackets' five questions - NHL.com's 30 in 30 package: 2014-15
Will Horton do well. Is he worth the big contract he got?

Flyers D Timonen being treated for blood clots in Finland
Hopefully Timonen will recover

Taste of success leaves Columbus Blue Jackets craving more - NHL.com's 30 in 30 package: 2014-15
Its nice to see underdogs succeed. its difficult to hate the Jackets

2014 Franchise Faceoff
Who would you start a franchise with, Stamkos or the Great 8? vote here

Sonny Milano OHL rumors persist - SB Nation College Hockey
Hopefully this talent stays in the NCAA, still wish we had drafted this kid. Why is BC so stacked

Sharks vs. Kings NHL outdoor game to be played at Levi's Stadium

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After the phenomenal success of the Stadium Series last year, including bringing outdoor hockey to California for the first time, the NHL is back at it this coming season.

The NHL has announced that Levi's Stadium, the brand-new home of the San Francisco 49ers, will play host to the second ever NHL outdoor game in California, pitting the San Jose Sharks against the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Los Angeles Kings on February 21, 2015.

The Kings took part in the Stadium Series last season, but were shut out 3-0 by the Anaheim Ducks in front of 54,099 fans at Dodger Stadium.

The game between the Sharks and Kings is yet another schedule highlight between the two rivals, as the Kings will raise their cup banner in their home opener against the Sharks in October.

The Sharks are likely to be extra motivated to wreck both big nights for the Kings after blowing a 3-0 series lead in the first round of last year's playoffs, which should guarantee an escalation in the rivalry. Then again, the Sharks haven't exactly done much to change their fate this offseason.

Tickets for the game will be on sale for season ticket holders of the teams beginning at 10 a.m. on August 7, 2014, available on a first-come, first-serve basis. Ticket information for the general public will be announced at a later date.

Considering that Levi's Stadium is considerably larger than Dodger Stadium, and that the Sharks are historically a more popular team than the Ducks, this is likely to be the biggest game in California hockey history. NHLPA director Don Fehr and NHL commissioner Gary Bettman were both effusive in their praise for the quality of hockey provided by California's teams, something that has become a consistent storyline in recent years.

Last season the Stadium Series set viewership records in several markets in both the USA and Canada, and the top six most watched hockey games in the USA in the last 39 years are all outdoor games.

LA Kings' Top 25 Under 25: #25 - Zac Leslie

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The first thing I learned about Zac Leslie is that his forehead is powerful

Sc1_medium

When Zac Leslie entered the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, he did so as the 146th ranked North American skater according to NHL Central Scouting. That's a moderately impressive feat given that the 6-foot, 198-pound defender went unranked when that same service released their prospect rankings at mid-season.

Leslie was fresh off a breakout season when the Kings used their sixth round selection on him. His 40 points in 68 games were a vast improvement on the 17 he logged during the 2011/12 campaign. He improved yet again this past season, picking up 50 points in 60 games. Leslie's bump in production came in equal parts goals and assists. To me, this suggests that actual growth may be responsible for his increased production as opposed to merely an unsustainable shooting percentage spike.

If his point totals hadn't already suggested it, Leslie has proven himself to be a capable puck-moving defenseman during his time in junior hockey. Nelson Emerson - LA Kings' director of player development - said the following about Leslie at the 2013 development camp:

I didn’t know him before he got here, but I read that he’s an offensive defenseman who can move puck up the ice, and that’s what I see. One of the benefits he has is that he moves very well, laterally, and he plays with his head up, so he’s able to make that first pass. If you’re a forward, you love when the defensemen are able to see things up the ice. That’s something he does well, and we’re looking forward to working with him, that’s for sure.

In my opinion, that's exactly the kind of player the Kings should be gambling on with later-round picks. This description sounds very similar to the kind of game that Alec Martinez plays. A-Mart was a 4th round pick in 2007 and, well, that has worked out in the Kings' favor I think.

I'M NOT SAYING THAT ZAC LESLIE IS GOING TO SCORE THE CUP WINNING GOAL FOR THE 2020 KINGS BUT THAT IS ABSOLUTELY WHAT I AM SAYING.

Okay, sorry.

As I said before, Zac Leslie had himself a pretty nice season. Notably, he had a 4-goal game back in November. That feat earned him Player of the Week honors from the CHL. Some people in the Kings' hockey ops thought he often looked like one of the best players in the CHL during his 2013/14 season. He helped lead the Guelph Storm to an OHL championship. At this year's development camp, Jon Rosen was able to catch up with him. Rosen was also able to drive home the Alec Martinez comparison. Good job, Jon Rosen.

At 198 pounds, Leslie is now 26 pounds heavier than he was when he was drafted. We're delving into micro-analysis at this point, but this could indicate a strong commitment to improvement both on and off the ice. He's shown steady improvement every single year of his career. He enters the 2014/15 season eligible to join the Manchester Monarchs for the first time.

It's been suggested that the Kings may have wavering confidence top defensive prospects like Derek Forbort and Kevin Gravel, which could be one of the reasons that they sought out Brayden McNabb. Given that (possible) fact, Leslie may have a nice niche to fill. It is quite certain that the Kings are short of immediate defensive depth beyond the NHL level, regardless of how you feel about Forbort and Gravel. If Leslie is able to continue fueling an upward trajectory in his hockey career, he could be a pretty quick riser through the Kings' ranks.



Arizona Coyotes Preseason Countdown: 47 Days

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Two Coyotes players finished last season with 47 points. One isn't with the team anymore because of it and the other should have had so much more.

In a full 82 game season, 47 points isn't a very important total. It works out to .57 points per game, a little more than one point for every two contests played. Last season, the Coyotes had two players finish the year with exactly 47 points. It was a disappointment for both and something to build on this year for one.

The 2013-14 season got off to hot start for two important Coyote players, fancy new free agent signing Mike Ribeiro and team captain Shane Doan. Ribeiro went pointless in his first three games in a Coyote sweater, but followed that with a seven game scoring streak, notching nine points in that time.

Ribeiro's hot and cold performance would continue throughout the opening part of the season before everything took a turn after the December 4th game against the Flames. Before that game, Ribeiro had 21 points in 28 games. He would only score 26 points in the remaining 52 games he played as a Coyote.

The December 4th game against Calgary is the turning point for the Coyotes' entire 2014 season because it was the last game Shane Doan played in before felled by a mysterious illness. Doan had 22 points in 26 games at that point and was providing big goals and a huge presence on the powerplay. Doan would miss the next month of games with what was diagnosed as Rocky Mountain Fever, not retuning until January 4th against the Philadelphia Flyers.

In a normal season, that would be devastating enough, but in the Olympic year with the condensed season, it was catastrophic for the team and Doan. After tallying 15 goals in the opening 26 games, he only added 8 in the remaining 43 games he played after coming back.

Doan's illness led to his disappointing final numbers. For Ribeiro, the answer wasn't as simple. Although losing the Captain on his wing was certainly a blow, the former Coyote would also have multiple instances of uninspired play and many dumb penalties that cost the Coyotes dearly. For a team that wasn't exactly high on offensive talent, it was telling that #63 was a healthy scratch twice down the stretch for the Coyotes' unsuccessful playoff run.

Off-ice issues along with the poor on-ice performance ultimately led General Manger Don Maloney to buying out the remaining 3 years of Mike's contract this offseason, making him a free agent who eventually signed with Nashville.

Doan will hope for a bounce back season after the less than stellar end to last season. While 47 points in 69 games isn't a bad season, it's tough to finish that way after the promising start. And with 47 days left until the Coyotes start the preseason against the defending Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings, it's going to be long wait to start skating again for real.


Sharks, Kings to face off at Levi's Stadium in NHL Stadium Series

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The 49ers and Levi's Stadium announced the facility will host an NHL Stadium Series game on February 21. The San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings will square off in the 49ers stadium.

The San Francisco 49ers and Levi's Stadium have announced that the site will play host to a 2015 hockey game between the San Jose Sharks and the Los Angeles Kings. The game will take place on February 21, 2015, and will be part of the NFL's Stadium Series. This marks the second hockey game in California, with the first being Kings-Ducks at Dodger Stadium last year.

This news actually leaked a few days ago thanks to a Ticketmaster mistake. Ticketmaster had an accidental pre-release that showed Kings-Sharks at Levi's Stadium. The game had been rumored, but there was some question about whether it would be at Levi's Stadium, or at AT&T Park. When the Ticketmaster leak happened, Bay Area Sports Guy broke down why each site made sense. Although AT&T would have had a lot to offer, Levi's Stadium offers more seats. That means more money, and potentially a chance to pound their chests over attendance records.

There will be a pre-sale of tickets starting August 7 (tomorrow) for SBL members, Sharks season ticket holders, and Kings season ticket holders. Later in the fall, remaining tickets will go on sale to the general public.

I'm not a huge hockey fan, but I don't know of many events that are more fun in person. Baseball is great in person, but the excitement of a hockey game is crazy. The only sporting event where I had more fun was a WWE PPV, and I'd call that "sports entertainment" as opposed to strictly sports. I've had a great time at 49ers games, but for just picking an event to watch live regardless of teams playing, hockey might be my choice.

I do wonder how hockey translates outdoors in bigger venues. The intimate nature of a hockey arena adds to the excitement. I've never been to one of these outdoor hockey games. I imagine it's pretty cool initially, but once you get into the game itself, how does the bigger environment impact it?

Morning Bag Skate 8/7

BREAKING: The Minnesota Wild have to play all of their games indoors next season.

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California gets another outdoor game and you don't hahahahahahahahahah

It was confirmed this morning that on February 21, 2015 the Sharks will be hosting the Kings at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. This game will be apart of the 2015 Stadium Series. Fans of other teams, who have severe inferiority complexes, are very troubled by the fact that California is hosting another outdoor game. Many argued that the Stadium Series game last year between the Anaheim Ducks and the Los Angeles Kings made a mockery of outdoor games because of KISS, a beach volleyball court, rollerskaters, etc etc etc, and while yes it was ridiculous, the whole point of the matter is that California is a thousand times better than Minnesota in every way, shape and form.

Five Reasons Why California is ideal for an outdoor game:

5) It's a growing market. Say what you will about California fans and the tendency of people bandwagoning. People bandwagon everywhere. Don't be a stupid loser. I'm sure you became a fan of your team when they acquired a star or made the playoffs as well. Don't be a jealous ugly baby. The fact is that California has hoisted three Stanley Cups (San Jose N/A) in the past seven years, all three teams are very good, and more people are becoming fans of hockey everyday in California. These teams are going to be good for awhile, so get fucking used to it.

4)It's not technically winter in February.Fans will get to wear whatever the hell they want to the game without worrying about freezing to death. I saw pictures of fans at the other Stadium Series games, and although they looked pretty happy, I assumed that it was because they were dead and the rigor mortis caused their faces to stay that way.

3) The Stadium will be filled with beautiful people.This is not something that you will see at an outdoor game hosted by the Minnesota Wild or the St. Louis Blues.

2) The Rivalry between the San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings is a beautiful mess. This rivalry, although I'm on the shitty side of it, is amazing and fun and horrifying and annoying and fucking awful. You can't ask for much more when watching a hockey game.

1) California is the best state ever. Best weather, food, beaches, attractions, etc. Why do you think so many hockey players want to come here to play hockey and not Minnesota, the "State of Hockey"? I'm sorry, but I'll never go to your shitty state to see your shitty hockey team and your shitty huge mall.

Sabres Links: Reinhart focused on team Canada, Compher nets pair of assists, San Jose to host outdoor game

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Sabres fans may be excited for the possibility of Reinhart making the Sabres, but he's taking things one step at a time. JT Compher continues to impress at national development camp, tallying another pair of assists.

Sabres Links

Around The League

  • The NHL officially announced that the Sharks will be hosting the Kings outdoors at Levi Stadium this season [NHL.com]
  • After suffering a concussion in Canada's first exhibition game, Aaron Ekblad is out for the rest of camp [TSN]
  • The ECHL and CHL are merging according to reports. There are also some rumblings that some of the ECHL teams, like Bakersfield, Las Vegas, Stockton and Ontario (California) could move up to the AHL next year to form a Western Conference [Pro Hockey Talk]
  • In search of Vic Ferrari, a pioneer in advanced stats whose identity was a mystery before now [CBC]

Thoughts on what a College Hockey hate map would look like

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With colors like red and maroon for rage, green for envy, and gold for "your team isn't as good as mine."

Like love and rubbing success in the faces of opponents, hating is a tradition as old as time in sports fandom. It's true. Haters are going to hate. College hockey fans know that as well as anyone.

Over the past week, Reddit users have created hate maps by state and province for each of the 4 major pro sports. The maps tell an interesting story on the NHL side. Beating the other two teams in your state and plugging your ears with Stanley Cup rings will make the Kings hated in Caifornia. Canadians are not fans of Massholes.

The Great Plains are apparently stuck in the 90's, and of course there are many theories behind Africa hating Winnipeg yet Georgia letting bygones be bygones.

Hate maps and discussion of rivalries is an off-season activity that is maybe second to Mount Rushmore lists in being brought up on an annual basis. (Often times rivalry talk is also an in-season activity.) Weekends and trophies are made for these. Whether it is an observation, a moment of pride or just the fact we may be petty people, there is something to be said about pointing out when the grass is greener.

Still, seeing the NHL map made me wonder how the college hockey version would look.

Some of the map would be easy to figure out even without anyone in general that has the sample size to do so making one. North Dakota's hate spirit animal would be a Gopher. So would Wisconsin's. Maine would most likely be New Hampshire. Alabama on a hate map is showing the Bemidji State Beavers. No really. (More on this below.) The big rivalries and smaller ones alike are known. From the Battle of Commonwealth Ave in Boston to the Upper Pennisula to sportswriters and the phrase #cawlidgehawkey, each region has one or two that escapes the confines.

Other areas are not so easy. Here are ten thoughts about states I'd be interested in seeing how they would turn out on a college hockey hate map, in no particular order.

1. Who wins in a mythical battle over Alaska?

Several states have two major college hockey programs. Rhode Island has Brown and Providence. New Hampshire has UNH and Dartmouth. Alaska, isolated and on its own, features the best of the two team battles with the dual hatred both Nanooks and Seawolves have for the other. Despite spending over 20 years in separate conferences until last season, both Alaska-Anchorage and Alaska made time to play one another for bragging rights over the Governor's Cup. The battle between the state's two largest cities mirrors the closeness of Pittsburgh-Philadelphia on the NHL map and is one that would be great to play out here.

2. Connecticut's 2013 National Championship Redux

Similar to Alaska, I feel the Nutmeg State would be a great fight between Quinnipiac and Yale fans against the other (sorry both Sacred Heart and Connecticut and a couple teams outstate being wildcards). Two teams, two similarly sized fanbases and attendance and one of the better ECAC rivalries.

3. Would people freak out over Alabama's selection?

One of the outrageous reactions that came from the NHL map was Alabama choosing Vancouver for some unknown reason. Did a bunch of people from Calgary move to Montgomery? Are there Birmingham Bulls fans taking out their 30 year-old anger at Canada not letting them join the NHL? I don't know.

In a college hockey hate map, the choice of the state featuring the only school in SEC country, Alabama-Huntsville, is fairly simple. The Chargers and Bemidji State have had a passionate rivalry on both sides going back to the days when both were Division II powerhouses. That continued through the CHA and now both schools are WCHA members. With over 70 meetings between the two, this is a case where familiarity on the ice breeds contempt that doesn't exist geographically. It's because of that where there could be a similar reaction to the NHL among people who haven't paid attention.

4. The regional nature of the game means there are going to be a lot of weird answers

If Alabama's answer is odd, then so will the hatred throughout the country with so many areas that don't feature a Division 1 men's hockey team. People move, allegiances stay - I met a University of Vermont hockey fan in Oklahoma this summer - and college hockey is small enough where one person can make a difference.

Maybe this sees America draped in the Red/Maroon and Gold hatred alliance of Minnesota, Boston College and Denver. Maybe we see a lot more weird answers like California hating Notre Dame or Idaho for some strange reason expressing disgust at American International. Others could be a mixture such as the case of a major city like Chicago, which was utilized as a hub of four different alumni bases for the outdoor Hockey City Classic in 2013.

My guess is a mix of all three with areas leaning towards their respective regions, but it'd be fun to see.

5. Does Pennsylvania actually hate anyone?

More importantly: should Pennsylvania be forced to hate? Things are pretty chill in PA. Of the three schools that have D1 hockey in the Keystone State, Penn State is entering year 3, Robert Morris just made its first NCAA Tournament and Mercyhurst won Atlantic Hockey's regular season title.

If anything, my guess would be Penn State's size overwhelms this and votes for a Big Ten football rival, however, it's not really earned. That's like going to Philadelphia and saying Sheetz is better than Wawa, even though it absolutely is not, or incorrectly calling Pennsylvania a state (IT'S A COMMONWEALTH!). They are small nuisances. For now, enjoy the love PA. You'll know when that day comes for hockey hate.

6. Massachusetts has BC-BU among rivalries, but how others vote shine a light

Massachusetts contains several big in-state rivalries between UMass-UMass-Lowell,  Merrimack-UMass-Lowell and about any permutation of the four Beanpot teams. None may be bigger than Boston College-Boston University, however. Just by themselves BC is a bigger school and has the bigger base. If this hate map had a large enough sample size, MA would bring out some Terrier rage. That's not the case. Boston College has been the dominant team in college hockey over the last 5 years. That is big for bringing the hate. With several other rivalries and fanbases that hate both BC and BU, it could end differently depending on how those other vote.

7. Michigan would be more fun if split up by peninsula

I'm thinking that the overwhelming presence of the University of Michigan takes the Great Lake State (and Ohio too minus some Buckeyes vitriol from Miami, Bowling Green and the rest of the state no one else knows). The Wolverines split along Michigan State and Ohio State and it's easy.

Of course, that could be completely wrong, which is one of the reasons I'd love to see how assumptions turn out (and you know what happens when you assume...) with this happening. At the same time, split Michigan into the Upper and Lower Peninsulas and it seems the UP would be an interesting ball of hate compared with the lower mitten. Northern Michigan and Michigan Tech have no love for the other and Lake Superior State is the wild card in every sense. Even Wisconsin and Michigan loom large.

8. The Gophers decide Minnesota one way or another

Like Michigan, Minnesota has one polarizing team above the rest in the Gophers. The University of Minnesota looms large thanks to TV, exposure and is the #1 source of hatred everywhere in the Upper Midwest (perhaps minus Beltrami County, as BSU beat writer Jack Hittinger points out) with four out five college hockey fanbases in Minnesota agreeing on who is the worst.

Still, the Gophers have the largest fanbase inside Minnesota. Whether it outnumbers the others, including the large contingent of North Dakota and Wisconsin fans that live in the Twin Cities is a good question. If it does then the state likely goes Kelly Green. If not - or if Wisconsin also gets a lot of votes from Minnesota fans - then the Gophers claim another state.

9. Colorado's hate flows through the Gold Pan and college hockey ex-pats

Denver and Colorado College's fight over the Gold Pan is exactly that on an annual basis. The games are heated. A couple years back one ended with Pioneers goalie Juho Olkinuora straight up fighting. With all due respect to Air Force, the third team in Colorado, on the surface hate seems to be a civil war between two of the larger teams in the country.

On the other hand, Denver seems to have a lot of college hockey ex-pats. Any time North Dakota, Minnesota (both of them no strangers to end-of-game shenanigans) or a big name Eastern school play the Pioneers there are a fair share of visiting fans. (Seriously, North Dakota is up there in terms of Boston College and Minnesota when it comes to being hated even if the state hate map does not show it. They travel well.) Is that enough to affect Colorado?

10. Which way does New York go? Because there seems to be several and predicting a winner seems futile.

Union-RPI. Canisius-Niagara. St. Lawrence-Clarkson. Cornell-Harvard. Cornell-BU. RIT-Canisius. Lake Placid hosting the ECAC Tournament-Atlantic City hosting. No large schools or overwhelming fanbases. Outstate school hatred. New York City containing a hodgepodge of alumni throughout New York state and the country.

The options are endless.

--

Agree? Disagree? Didn't bring up your state? Discuss it in the comments.

Nathan Wells is a college hockey columnist for SB Nation. You can also follow him on Twitter --

2014 Season Review: Jake Muzzin

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Jake Muzzin Corsi, 2012-2014

GPCorsi RelativeCorsi OnExpected CorsidCorsi
2012-134521.726.43910.45115.988
2013-147613.523.71212.61611.096

(dCorsi from @Mimicohero. Those dCorsis were 1st and 7th among all NHL defensemen, respectively.)

Positives

Jake Muzzin led all defensemen in 2013-14 with a 61.1% Corsi. That was no one-year aberration - he was just repeating what he'd done in 2012-13 (63.1%). Muzzin hasn't been leading the league by just a little bit, either; if you look at the last two years, Muzzin's Corsis are 2.5% better than the next guy. Raw Corsi needs to be adjusted for context, and we'll certainly discuss that in this article, but that's an awesome accomplishment.

So the possession numbers are great. But Drew Doughty is the elephant in the room during any discussion of Muzzin. How can we possibly give Muzzin any credit for these eye-popping numbers when he's mostly playing with a future Hall of Famer? That's why I want to spend most of this article arguing Muzzin's results are not a product of Doughty.

Muzzin has bounced around between the first and third pairings the last two years, so he has a fair-sized sample away from Doughty. So one of the first things we can do is look at Muzzin's results without his best friend:


Muzzin-Doughty WOWY, 2012-2014

TOICorsi%
Muzzin With Doughty128860.6%
Muzzin Without Doughty55464.5%
Doughty Without Muzzin104755.1%

Well. That would certainly be a point in Muzzin's favor. If Doughty does much better with Muzzin than without, and less so the other way around, that would suggest, absent of other evidence, that Muzzin is doing much of the play driving on the first pairing. But with or without yous like these scream out for context, so let's look and see if there is any other evidence we're missing.

First, Doughty is at a bit of a disadvantage here because he plays the right side, which means when not with Muzzin he is often stuck with Robyn Regehr (the worst possession player on the Kings). The 489 unfortunate minutes of the Doughty-Regehr pairing make Doughty's "without Muzzin" numbers look worse, but don't explain everything - Doughty-Muzzin is still much better than Doughty-Mitchell (56.6%) or Doughty-Martinez (55.7%).

A second objection might be that Muzzin gets easier minutes than Doughty. This is true, but only to a point. Muzzin and Doughty matched against the same QoC over the season, so nothing to see there.

In terms of zone starts, though, Muzzin had an easier time (+6.0% ZS relative, Doughty -0.9% ZS relative). That explains a little bit of Muzzin's great Corsis, but don't overstate the impact. Unlike, say, Chicago (which gave Patrick Kane a +21.2% ZS relative and Marcus Kruger -46.1%), the Kings don't give players extreme zone starts. The adjustment required to Corsi% is therefore not very big. The overall effect of Muzzin's zone start push is approximately one defensive zone start replaced with an offensive zone start every three games. That makes a difference, but only a small one.

Just for fun, let's break down "Muzzin without Doughty" by partner:


Muzzin Without Doughty, 2012-2014

PartnerTOI with MuzzinCorsi% with MuzzinCorsi% without Muzzin
Greene19260.8%54.7%
Voynov15368.3%53.4%
Drewiske9168.6%54.5%
Ellerby8561.4%50.9%
Martinez2767.8%56.8%

Fantastic results here. No matter who he's paired with, Muzzin has put up tremendous Corsis, and everyone does way better with him. Individually these are pretty small samples, so I don't want the takeaway to be that the Kings should rush to reunite Muzzin-Drewiske. But combined, I think they show that Muzzin is the best play-driving defenseman the Kings have. Doughty has more raw talent and probably the potential to be a better player, but the numbers make a powerful argument that, for now at least, Muzzin is doing the best work of anyone on the blue line.

Negatives

It's worth taking the time to refute a common criticism about Muzzin. The first is that he's careless with the puck and turns it over way too much. To this I'd firstly say who cares, if Muzzin's team still gets the vast majority of shots and goals when he's on the ice? Hockey is about outscoring the opposition, and Muzzin taking risks with the puck clearly helps the Kings in that regard.

To people not convinced by that argument, I might also say that the NHL does track turnovers with the "giveaways" stat. Using this stat puts Muzzin at a disadvantage because the Kings have the puck more with Muzzin on the ice than with any other player, so Muzzin will inevitably have more opportunities to give the puck away (obviously you have to possess the puck before you can turn it over). Even so, Muzzin committed 57 giveaways in 1446 minutes this year, a rate (2.36 giveaways/60) basically the same as Responsible Veteran Willie Mitchell (2.17) and less than Drew Doughty (2.45) and Slava Voynov (2.46). Muzzin doesn't seem to turn over the puck all that much. Although the real lesson here is, as always, that a hyper-focus on turnovers is a terrible way to judge a defenseman.

Muzzin's 24 points in 76 games seems uninspiring. But his 16 5v5 points is actually pretty good (Doughty had 13 in more minutes). Muzzin had a lot of trouble recording points on the power play, which seems pretty likely to regress back to reasonable levels next year. Plus, Muzzin's shooting percentage is due for a rebound. He got 175 pucks on net last season (well over twice as many as Martinez managed); if he does that again in 2014-15, he's likely to score a lot more than 5 goals.

Highlight

Muzzin fakes a pass with his eyebrows, the goalie falls for it, and Muzzin scores!

Roman Emperor Comparable: Claudius

Claudius (ruled 37-54) was the black sheep of the Julio-Claudian imperial family. Born with a limp, a severe stutter, and a twitch, Claudius was considered an idiot, unfit to be seen in public, even by his own mother. Claudius probably didn't like being an object of contempt and pity most of his life, but it had its advantages. While the rest of his crazy family fell victim to treacheries and assassinations, Claudius survived, too harmless for anyone to bother with killing.

By sheer accident, Claudius was the last family member standing, and so found himself one of Rome's more unlikely emperors in 37. On assuming the throne, Claudius proved everyone wrong - despite his disabilities he was actually a very capable man. He ruled well for over a decade and even managed to conquer Britain during that time.

Much like Claudius, Muzzin can look clumsy out there, and I get why people who don't pay attention to stats scoff at the notion of Jake Muzzin, superstar. But as the story of Claudius teaches us, appearances are deceiving.

Going Forward

Muzzin will be Doughty's partner next season, and if Doughty gets his wish, a long time after that. Muzzin hits restricted free agency after 2014-15. His price is only going to go up as he plays more minutes next to Doughty (and likely puts up higher point totals), so the Kings would be advised to lock him up long term sooner rather than later.

Grade

Muzzin had a spectacular season so I will give him an A. I'm guessing many of you will vote B and comment that he commits too many turnovers. This will make me sad.

Poll
Grade Jake Muzzin's season.

  65 votes |Results

Devils in the Details - 8/8/2014: Rafalski to the Hall Edition

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New Jersey Devils & Related Hockey Links for 8/8/14

Your links for today:

Devils Links

Former Devil Brian Rafalski will be inducted into the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame. [Fire and Ice]

Hockey Links

A research firm is calling the Habs Canada's top sports brand. [Puck Daddy]

The NHL and KHL have extended their agreement to honor each other's contracts. [PHT]

Sounds like first overall pick Aaron Ekblad has suffered a concussion. [PHT]

The Sharks are going to host the Kings in an outdoor game at Levi's Stadium. [PHT]

A now-disputed report said that Teemu was being offered $10 million to play in the KHL next season. [PHT]

John Tavares is ready to get back to playing. [PHT]

Feel free to discuss these and any other hockey-related stories in the comments below.


2014 Season Review: Jordan Nolan

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Yes, this is apparently a thing that we're doing, for some reason.


Jordan Nolan Corsi, 2011-14

GPCORSI RELATIVECORSI ONEXPECTED CORSIDCORSI
2011-1226-5.911.5205.0306.490
2012-1344-19.8-1.96812.319-14.287
2013-1464-8.46.8709.482-2.612

Positives

As far as 4th line players go, I suppose there are worse ones out there than Nolan. When looking at his dCorsi this year compared to 2012-13, he definitely managed to improve from those incredibly awful numbers. I certainly wouldn't call his play "good", especially with all the built-in advantages he had due to his usage, but he didn't get killed nearly as badly this time around. Let's give him a nice little golf clap, I guess.

A big problem for 4th line forwards tends to be taking a lot of penalties, and Nolan really isn't any different, as his 1.9 penalties taken/60 ranked second-to-last on the team (minimum 41 games played), ahead of only Kyle Clifford's 2.3. However, unlike Clifford Nolan was able to balance this out a bit by also drawing his fair share of penalties, enough to actually be above water in penalty differential. In penalty differential/60, Nolan actually ranks tied with Kopitar for 3rd on the team with +0.4; compare that to Clifford, who is all the way at the bottom with a -1.1. Good work Jordan!

Also, Andrew mentioned in his Lewis article that the median NHL 4th liner put up 1.04 pts/60 last season. Guess what Nolan's points per 60 minutes were? 1.04. In this regard, Jordan Nolan was basically the baseline 4th liner in the NHL last year. That's certainly better than, say, Trevor Lewis (0.68) and Kyle Clifford (0.67), so way to go Jordan!

Negatives

Well, those possession numbers are clearly quite garbage, yes. Better than the tire fire he was in 2012-13, but still garbage nonetheless. Considering how easy his minutes are- go look at the Kings' player usage chart and try to find Nolan's bubble, it's the tiny one all the way at the bottom (easiest competition) and to the right (easiest zone starts), so it's not hard to miss it- that's pretty unacceptable.

It doesn't get much better for Jordan when you look at his zone entries or scoring chances, although you probably wouldn't expect it to. Nolan carried the puck over the blue line with control just 40.28% of the time, beating out only Kyle Clifford and Dwight King in this regard. Even when he did carry the puck in, the Kings usually failed to generate shots on goal with it, as his 0.56 shots per carry-in only beat out Dwight King.

In scoring chances, Jordan Nolan was especially terrible. When Nolan was on the ice, the Kings' opponents had 58.5% of all scoring chances. As Nick pointed out in his breakdown, that essentially meant every opposition player suddenly played like Anze Kopitar against him. As we've already been over, Nolan faced the easiest competition of any King, so basically we're talking 3rd- and 4th-liners suddenly playing like the great Anze here. That's, uh, really bad. Even the second-worst King on the team, Trevor Lewis, was nowhere close to Nolan's terribleness, as he conceded 54.6% of scoring chances to the opponents.

2000 WWF Superstar Comparable: Hardcore Holly

Hholly3_medium

Hardcore Holly, like Jordan, had already been around for a while, only to find himself surpassed by newer, younger, and more entertaining acts like Chris Jericho, the Radicalz, the Dudleyz, the Hardyz, and others who had started far more recently. Originally given a stupid race car driver gimmick as, I swear to god, Thurman 'Sparky' Plugg (later changed to Bob 'Spark Plugg' Holly, which I guess sounds a little less stupid sure), Holly broke out in 1999 in the WWF's hardcore division, hitting people with random crap to hide the fact that he wasn't very good. By the time 2000 rolled around, Holly had even begun to wear out his welcome in his very limited role. It didn't help that the WWF needlessly shoehorned him into the very fun Jericho-Chyna Intercontiental Title feud at the Royal Rumble, either, but thankfully he would be back to swinging random plunder by WrestleMania (just like Jordan actually started out the playoffs in the lineup ahead of Tanner Pearson but was back in the press box before too long).

Basically, every time Holly was on-screen, you probably thought "I would rather be watching someone else, like, say, his fake cousin Crash, at least that guy's funny". He wasn't totally useless, I guess; he could be amusing sometimes as the straight man to the aforementioned Crash Holly. But calling him even "an okay wrestler" was probably a hell of a stretch, and when you compare him to the rest of the WWF's stacked roster in 2000, he looked almost laughably bad. Sounds like someone we know!

Going Forward

Hopefully he doesn't play much. He only saw the ice in three playoff games for the Kings this year. With Tyler Toffoli &Tanner Pearson now looking like full-time NHLers and a few other kids possibly challenging for roster spots in the upcoming camp, it's easy to see Jordan getting his fill of press box popcorn this coming season. That's probably for the best, as it's tough to argue the optimal Kings lineup involves dressing Jordan.

Grade

You know, I almost wanted to give him a C, because for a 4th liner at least he drew more penalties than he took and scored at the median 4th line rate. That's not too awful. But his possession numbers were bad and his scoring chance numbers were amazing horrendous, so I really have to go with a D. Sorry Jordan, I'm sure you're a swell guy!

Poll
Grade Jordan Nolan's season.

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To Hit or Not to Hit: A Statistic That Misses The Mark

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The concept of the "hit" in the NHL is a misunderstood and misused statistic, which bears only the slightest resemblance to the reality on the ice. Time to dig deep and set the record straight.

While the Prince of Denmark never contemplated the vagaries of NHL statistics in his famous soliloquy, some of those statistics -- seriously contemplated -- are fully capable of driving one to the brink of insanity.  In my case, it may not be a long drive, but the concept of the "hit" in NHL hockey is one of those numbers.  Fully aware of my frustration with this concept, my wife loves nothing more than to lean over to me when the Blue Jackets struggle on the ice, point to the statistics board, and say "At least we are leading in Hits."   It's like fingernails on the blackboard.  Equally troubling is the fan whose cure for every on-ice ill is "Hit Somebody!!"  

So, I come to this debate not as an impartial observer, but as an advocate for change.  We'll examine the statistic in light of what it purports to be, what it actually measures and how good a job it does of reflecting reality of performance.   At the end of the debate, we'll hopefully be able to determine whether the hits statistic is an asset, a liability, or just irrelevant.

A Hit or Miss Statistic?

For me, a valid statistic must do a couple of  things.  First, it must provide an objective measurement of a fact.  To the extent subjectivity creeps into the equation, the validity of the statistic rapidly diminishes, as there is little assurance that common standards are utilized from situation to situation.  Secondly, the statistic must bear some rational relationship to some meaningful aspect of the game.  You could track the television shows that players watch on game days, and it would be an objective assessment of a fact.  Yet, it likely has absolutely nothing to do with what transpires on the ice.  

A big problem withthe entire concept of a "hit" is one of semantics.  The common understanding of a "hit" is physical contact between two opponents, withthe effectiveness of the "hit" directly tied to the intensity of the contact.  However,  the word "hit" is not defined anywhere in the NHL Rule Book.  In reality -- and in common usage -- the "hit" is simply a synonym for the word "check", with some reserving "hit" for a particularly hard check.  There is likely little disagreement on this from the perspective of common understanding.  Unfortunately, that understanding has nothing to do with the statistic.

For a valid "Hit" to be registered on the stat sheet, the player to be credited with the hit must a) intentionally initiate physical contact with the player possessing the puck, and b) the player sustaining the contact must lose possession of the puck as a result of the contact.  If the contact results in a penalty, no hit can be awarded.  The intensity of the contact does not enter into the equation, nor does the loss of possession necessarily involve a turnover.  If the puck is retrieved by a teammate -- or even the player himself --  a hit is still earned.  So, virtually all of those devastating "hits" that make the NHL Top Ten videos shown around the league are not "hits" in the statistical sense, as the puck is usually gone. 

A key to the statistical version of the "hit" is the concept of possession.  For that, we turn to Rule 56.1 in the NHL Rule Book, which covers Interference:

Possession of the Puck: The last player to touch the puck, other than the goalkeeper, shall be considered the player in possession. The player deemed in possession of the puck may be checked legally, provided the check is rendered immediately following his loss of possession.

Here is where we start getting into the meat of the matter.  As written, the NHL only allows a player in possession of the puck to be checked.  While a statistical "hit" necessarily involves a "check", not all "checks" are "hits", because not all "checks" result in a loss of possession.  Strictly interpreted and applied, this means that only puck handlers are fair game for checking, and not the intended recipients of passes or others in the vicinity of the puck.  (For an interesting discussion of the possession requirement in a slightly different context, check out this article.)  As we all know, the NHL "checking" rule is enforced with the frequency that the NBA calls travelling or three second violations.

So the first thing that emerges is that the other team must be in possession of the puck for a valid statistical "hit" to be registered.  It logically follows that the more hits a team amasses, the more their opponent possessed the puck.  This is not a good thing, in most settings, unless you plan to thrive on odd-man rushes to generate all of your goals.  Yet fans and broadcasters alike trumpet the hit statistic as an accomplishment and a demonstration of the "physicality" their club displays.  (For the record, I use the word "physicality" by way of satire here, as it is a term I also loathe.  That, however, is a different article)

So let's apply my two-prong test to the hits statistic and see how it fares.  First, does it objectively measure a fact. In this instance, the "fact" is possession of the puck, and the loss thereof.  As noted above, the concept of "possession" is an amorphous one, particularly when the statistic does not require that possession be obtained by the other team.  The NFL has an analogous statistic for "fumbles caused".  However, in football the loss of possession is relatively easy to determine.  The ball comes out of the player's hands, and hits the ground, or is picked out of the air by the opposition.  When it hits the ground, it does not necessarily result in a loss of possession.  However, the only time a fumble is counted without the ball hitting the ground is when the opposition does gain control.  It's a fairly straightforward statistic.

The problem is that in hockey, the puck is already on the ground, and is "possessed" with a stick.  The puck itself spends relatively little time on the stick, however.  So, at what point is possession lost?  When it is out of range of both stick and arm?  In Ryan Johansen's case, his wingspan would almost never merit a loss of possession finding.  When it finds another stick?  When it hits the boards?  So, the "fact" of possession presents an issue here. That alone suggests that objective measurement is impossible, given that there is no uniform standard for what may constitute a "loss of possession."

A brief look at the application and history of the statistic reveal that there is a lot of subjectivity to the statistic. Peruse the game reports from NHL games, and you will be amazed at the large swings in numbers of hits from arena to arena.  Significantly, there is a significant bias toward the home team when it comes to the number of hits recorded.  Last season, only nine of the thirty teams registered more hits on the road than at home.   Given that hit frequency is directly proportonal to the opponent's possession of the puck, you would expect that precisely the reverse would apply.  In fact, it was the subjective nature of the statistic that led the NHL to stop tracking the number for part of the 2002-2003 season, resuming only after the NHLPA protested that some of its members had incentive clauses tied to the number.

Looking at the second prong of the statistical test, we have to ask ourselves what the hit statistic actually means?  Anyone?  Buehler?   The NHL already has statistics for Giveaways and Takeaways, which govern changes of possession. As we already noted, since not all checks qualify as "hits", the hits number is not necessarily a good proxy for the physical nature of a team's play, particularly since some of the most intense checks do not qualify as hits. So, does the statistic really measure anything material to the game?  It would not appear so  on the surface.  But, to be fair, let's see if we can back into the significance.

If an attribute of a team's play is truly significant, it should show up to one extent or another in actual results.  So, I looked at the last five years of NHL regular season play, to see what correlation -- if any -- existed between teams that were among the league leaders in hits, and those that made the playoffs.  It turns out that teams that ranked in the Top 10  in hits made the playoffs 34% of the time.  The problem is that teams ranking in the Bottom 10 in  hits made the playoffs 35% of the time.  Teams in the Top 10 in hits were significantly more likely to fall in the Bottom 10 in goals per game (38%) than in the top 10 in that category (28%).  For those believing that hits is a valid defensive statistic, the numbers do not provide much support. Only 30% of the teams in the Top 10 in hits were among the Top 10 in goals against per game, while 36% fell in the bottom 10 in that category.  Conversely, teams that fell in the bottom 10 in hits, were the most likely (38%) to be in the Top 10 in goals per game. 

A quick look at teams falling at the bottom of the hits category validates the numbers.  For years, the Red Wings held down the last spot in hits.  Today, the Chicago Blackhawks have claimed the cellar each of the past three years.  Other similarly successful teams can be found lurking near the bottom of the hits category.  The Los Angeles Kings are a notable exception to the rule.  Since 2000, they have never been lower than 12th in the NHL in hits, and have been in the Top 7 each of the past seven years.  In their 26 playoff games en route to the Stanley Cup, the Kings "won" the hits battle 17 times.  Their record in those games?  8 - 9.  In the nine games where they "lost" the hit count, they were 8 - 1.  Questions?

So, in the final analysis, the statistical measure of "hits" does not seem to pass muster.  The statistic itself lacks objective standards and application, and the resulting numbers do not seem to bear any significant correlation to any form of success or failure on the ice.  If it is to be used as a proxy for physical play, then adopt a checking statistic.  While the number would be much higher, the subjectivity would be far less, and there would be little question as to what was actually being measured. 

In a follow-up piece, we'll compare the Blue Jackets with the Los Angeles Kings in terms of physical play.  The two clubs tied for the NHL lead in hits last season, but closer scrutiny shows that there are some meaningful diffrences in approach.  What are the keys to turning physical play into playoff success?  We'll examine that next time.  In the meantime, as the Bard would say -- all's well that ends well.

New York Rangers analysis: Help is on the way for the Blueshirts, so be patient

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The Rangers soon could be getting the high-end talent the team has been so desperately missing through its recent near-misses.

It's difficult to stomach any steps back when it comes to building on previous successes. The Rangers fell only three wins shy of hoisting the Stanley Cup this season, and with largely the same cast of characters, expectations will be quite high entering Alain Vigneault's second season at the helm.

The situation is very reminiscent of 2012.

That season, the Rangers unexpectedly—from a number of standpoints—nearly climbed to hockey's pinnacle. That Rangers team was quite young, with an average age of 26, but that group still managed to rack up the most points in the East, and nearly made it to the Cup Final. It was a season that accelerated the timeframe for a group that wasn't supposed to compete or be a contender for a few seasons.

And that offseason reflected that shift in expectations. The Rangers sacrificed some youth and depth in the form of top-end talent by acquiring Rick Nash. In no way is this an audit of that move, which brought a premier player to the Rangers. It's a trade you make 10 out of 10 times. And Nash has obliged by being rather good.

Since that blockbuster trade, and since the Rangers forged ahead with much of that young nucleus, while incorporating some other key players, they've inched closer to hockey' grandest prize, but haven't snatched it just yet. And again, with the team having come so close, and the two decade gap between when the Rangers last led a ticker-tape parade through New York's streets, every passing season brings with it 82-plus games of anxiety, and those aforementioned steps backwards are not easy to swallow.

But keeping an eye on the big picture is more important, most important in fact. And the Rangers landscape in the coming years is looking quite bright.

The other two major similarities between this past season and 2012 was the light at the end of the tunnel was being blocked by an abundantly better Western Conference team. The Kings lifted the Cup in both of those seasons, and entering both of those series—against the Rangers a few months ago, and against either the Rangers or Devils two years ago—Los Angeles was clearly a few cuts above. Of course, it's more enjoyable, and more beneficial for the team to gain that deep postseason experience, but a Ranger win in either case would have been a major upset.

And neither of those Rangers teams—nor a single one since the 2005 lockout—has truly been good enough to win a championship.

This is where the big picture, and not becoming frustrated with a lack of tangible improvement comes in.

The only way the Rangers can truly build upon what the team accomplished last season is to win the 2015 Stanley Cup. And it's entirely possible; heck, anything is possible. The Eastern Conference isn't filled with powerhouses, and the Rangers could again find themselves in hockey's last two teams standing. But just as was the case this June, should the Rangers go up against the likes of a Chicago, or a Los Angeles, or a few other teams in from the West, they'll be overmatched.

And this is where a measured approach and an patience comes to the forefront.

If you've been following the world junior camps that have been going on this past week, you've heard time and time again about the caliber of Pavel Bucnevich and Anthony Duclair. Brady Skjei is another top-end prospect who's name would be in the conversation if he hadn't aged out of this tournament. And because for some reason it needs to be said, J.T. Miller is only 21 years old. He's only a year older than Skjei, and yes, the potential is there.

This group is the future, but the future isn't this upcoming season.

The Rangers are set up for future success. Aside from that group of youngsters who have yet to become NHL stalwarts, Chris Kreider and Derek Stepan will be entering their primes in two or so years, as will Ryan McDonagh. Henrik Lundqvist should still be playing at a very high level, while Nash's scoring hasn't tailed off yet.

So 2015 could turn into the perfect storm for New York Rangers hockey.

Rangers brass tried to convince Skjei this offseason to turn pro. It's probably no coincidence the Rangers had five sure fire, lineup defensemen through all of this, as if Glen Sather could have pouched Skjei, it would have been a major coup, and Skjei probably could make the NHL jump right now. Duclair has shown he can clearly score in the QMJHL, and plenty of players have made the transition straight from major juniors to the show. Bucnevich will get out of his KHL contract in a year, and odds are Miller will get plenty of chances to carve out a spot on the depth chart this season.

This isn't a plea for the Rangers to punt this season. But the teams on-again, off-again deep postseason runs in the midst of identifying and acquiring organizational depth has been a very peculiar holding pattern. That 2011-12 team over-exceeded, while it was expected to be better in the following years.

Categorizing the expectations for the 2013-14 Rangers is a bit foggier. It was more or less the same team that fizzled out in the second round a year prior to the Bruins, and seemed like a no-doubt postseason club, but not better than the likes of Boston or the Penguins. That was probably the case, and then the team got hot at the right time. And the team virtually stands in the same place this season, if not a few steps back, while the rest of the East is catching up.

And that likely will hurt the Rangers this season when it comes to the expectations from fans. If there is an ETA right now for when this franchise will truly have all of the pieces to not just be "another good team in the mix," 2015-16 seems like an excellent starting point.

There's no reason to go into this season hopeless with regards to the Rangers prospects, but its worth noting their major prospects—in the literal and physical sense—are on the way.

Sunday's Coyotes Tracks - Phoenix's misery

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Phoenix is ranked as a miserable sports city, is that fair?

Coyotes News

Arizona Coyotes Preseason Countdown: 44 Days - Five For Howling
With 44 days until preseason begins, we look at the player the Coyotes recently acquired who will wear the number 44.

Forbes ranks Phoenix as second-most miserable sports city in America - ArizonaSports.com
Forbes ranks Phoenix as second-most miserable sports city in America

Gladiators News

Rededicated Walker signs with Gladiators | Gwinnett Daily Post
Brenden Walker scored the first goal and the last goal of the 2013-14 season for the Gwinnett Gladiators.

News From Around the Hockey World

Spaghetti and Meatballs, Not Apples and Oranges: Why Fancy Statistics and Eye-Tests Should be Considered Harmonious - Silver Seven
Discussing why stats vs. traditional analysis shouldn't be an argument at all.

Puck Daddy's Summer of Disappointment: Ottawa Senators Edition | Puck Daddy - Yahoo Sports
Ottawa's day in the Summer of Disappointment.

Boy finds Montreal Canadiens Cup ring in a river, but is it the real deal? | Puck Daddy - Yahoo Sports
When you go swimming or fishing as a kid in just about any natural body of water, the dream, the thing that would make your day, is finding something really amazing. A massive fish. The beginning of a mystery. Some kind of treasure.

Senators, Methot struggle to find common ground in contract talks | ProHockeyTalk
It looks like the two sides won't agree to an extension in the near future.

Happy 50th Birthday, Brett Hull - St. Louis Game Time
In an evil bid to make everyone who was a fan in the 90s feel ancient, Brett Hull is aging. Here's a look back at the Golden Brett.

Panthers owner ‘didn’t need to see anyone else’ after interviewing Gallant | ProHockeyTalk
He beat out a host of others for the job.

Report: Semin returning to U.S. to rehab surgically repaired wrist | ProHockeyTalk
He was operated on in late May.

Report: Kings prospect Prokhorkin will stay in KHL for 2014-15 | ProHockeyTalk
Los Angeles took him in the fourth round of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.

The Final Howl

Hockey Enthusiasts Illegally Paint Rink In Katy, TX High School Parking Lot - Defending Big D

Will the Panthers' next "goaltender of the future" please stand up?

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With the talented, but frustrating, Jacob Markstrom out of the picture, do the Panthers have Roberto Luongo's heir apparent in the system?

Reunited and it feels so good... On March 4, Florida Panthers GM Dale Tallon made a huge splash, bringing back goaltender Roberto Luongo to solidify a position which was starting to become an real issue; with too many pucks finding the back of the net, Tim Thomas'  injury problems and the contracts of both Thomas and struggling backup Scott Clemmensen set to expire at the end of the season.

Part of the price to re-acquire Luongo from Vancouver was long-time prospect Jacob Markstrom. The 24-year-old Markstrom was selected with the 31st pick in the 2008 Entry Draft and immediately tabbed as the club's "goaltender of the future." After two more seasons with Brynas IF of the Swedish Hockey League, the long, tall Swede made his North American debut with the Rochester Americans in 2010. Markstrom managed to make 43 appearances, posting a meager 11 wins, with Florida over the next four seasons, but despite a few really tantalizing performances here and there, never managed to stick. He has shown himself to be a capable AHL starter, however, if one were looking for a single adjective to describe Markstrom's pro career so far, that adjective would very likely be inconsistent.

With Luongo back in the fold and Markstrom's stalled development now in the lap of the Canucks, the Panthers' picture in goal has changed considerably. Louie may be 35-years-old, but over the last few seasons he has shown that he is still capable of starting upwards of sixty games a season. He has eight years to go on his monster contract, and while there is a decent chance he won't finish it out, at least as a starter, there is every indication, like Martin Brodeur or the recently departed Thomas, that he will be able to remain a relatively high-level number one option as he approaches age forty.

Backing up Luongo this season will be either free-agent signing Al Montoya or Dan Ellis, who was acquired from the Dallas Stars in the deadline-day deal that saw Thomas leave Sunrise. Since Ellis bombed in his short time with the Cats at the end of last season, and Montoya has the longer and more lucrative contract,  he is going to have his work cut out for him. But what about beyond that? Do the Panthers have another captivating "goaltender of the future" prospect like Markstrom in the system? With Luongo likely to hold down the number role for at least the next four or five years, do they even need one right now? Do any of the young netminders on the organizational depth chart have a chance of ever supplanting Louie as the starter, or is the best they can hope for taking over for Montoya as the backup a couple years from now?

Let's talk a brief look at the prospects the Panthers currently have in the goalie pipeline.

Michael Houser: A former OHL Goaltender of the Year and Red Tilson Trophy winner as the league's most outstanding player, Houser earned a contract with the Panthers in 2012 after appearing in the team development camp. The undrafted netminder spent the 2012-13 season with the ECHL's Cincinnati Cyclones, compiling a 17-10-2 regular season record and made 17 postseason appearances as the club advanced to the conference finals. Last season, the 21-year-old saw duty in 28 AHL tilts for the San Antonio Rampage and another 12 with Cincinnati. Houser is in the final year of his ELC and may need to have a big year to stay with the organization. It looks like he will be battling Florida draftee Sam Brittain for the right to take one of the two spots available on the Rampage, with the other likely going to Dan Ellis if the Panthers don't trade or cut the veteran puck-stopper loose before the season starts.

Sam Brittain: The former Denver Pioneer recently signed his ELC and is ready to embark on his first pro season. Whether that is in San Antonio or Cincinnati remains to be seen. The 22-year-old was drafted in the fourth round (92nd overall) of the 2010 Entry Draft. After a very impressive freshman campaign, Brittain only played in 25 games during the next two seasons due to a knee injury and then losing the number one job to Juho Olkinuora. He bounced back this past season to post a 19-14-6 record and stellar 2.22 GAA, leading Denver to an appearance at the NCAA Tournament. Brittain definitely had some ups and downs during his college career, but all the tools are there for him to be a successful pro. It would bode well for his future if he can get significant playing time with the Rampage this season.

Evan Cowley: Like Sam Brittain, Cowley was also taken with the 92nd pick, in the 2013 Entry Draft, and also ended up at the University of Denver, after a stint with the NAHL's Wichita Falls Wildcats. With Brittain firmly ensconced as the Pioneers' starter, the redheaded 19-year-old only saw action in five games as a freshman, but shined when he got the chance, posting a miserly 1.76 GAA. The youngster is currently making a bid to secure a spot on the United States WJC team for year's tournament in Toronto and Montreal, and took part in the Panthers' development camp in July. Look for Cowley to get plenty of playing time with the Pioneers this season, and hopefully make Team USA, as he continues on the road to becoming an NHLer.

Hugo Fagerblom: Despite being in prime position in the second round, the Panthers decided to pass on the top-two rated goaltenders in this year's draft, Thatcher Demko and Mason McDonald, in favor of  Brandon Wheat Kings forward Jayce Hawryluk. The Cats did grab a netminder in round seven, taking a huge, relatively unknown Swede in the Markstrom mold, Hugo Fagerblom, with the 182nd overall pick. The Panthers brought the raw 18-year-old to Coral Springs for a look at the team's annual development camp. Fagerblom, who played last season with Frolunda's U18 squad, is definitely a project, and will need to become a regular in the SHL before he thinks about coming to North America, unless it's play Major Junior.

Sergei Gayduchenko: Since being drafted by the Panthers in the seventh-round of the 2007 Entry Draft, Gayduchenko has spent six seasons toiling in the KHL, mostly as a backup. His best season, from a won-loss perspective, was in 2009-10, when he posted an 11-7 record and .922 save percentage for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. In 2012-13, he went 6-9-2 with a fine 2.40 GAA in 19 games for HC Sibir. Last season, he appeared in just 8 games for Sibir and saw his GAA balloon to 3.42. The 25-year-old recently signed on with HC Donbass, but with the club taking a one-year sabbatical from the KHL due to the unstable situation in the Ukraine, his playing status is currently up in the air. He will be free to sign a one-year contract with another club until Donbass returns to the ice. With Gayduchenko well on his way to becoming a KHL journeyman, and showing no inclination to come to North America, it's unlikely he figures much, if at all, in the Panthers' plans.

Poll
Who is the most worthy of the "goaltender of the future" mantle?

  93 votes |Results

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