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Change ( The Good Kind )

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Look what happens. You take a break, start a new job, and all of the sudden, the Leafs are signing every ex Canuck they can, and every thing written in these dog days is both right and wrong. ( this one I especially liked from our PITB pals... )

Fear not. Change is good.

I mean, it is the theme this year, right ?  With a new boss, another new boss, a new bench boss, new players, new chance ( s ) for the youth, and the last of the malcontent ( hopefully ) superstars that wanted out of town, well, out, change is busting out all over the place.

Where to start ?  Well, there is the aside of the Leafs ( the one time loudest proponents of "Olde Tymey Hawkey" ) hiring an analytics guy under the new leadership of Shanny, and Trevor Linden ditching the mind room, and looking at all the new regime "edge" things that Mike Gillis did ( and he should be commended.  There are teams all over the league that are doing the things he was first open to ) with a more player-ly eye.

The thing is, we could have told them a long time ago around here that David Booth was a good "analytics" signing.  In the end, he was a guy you could not have around at 4.2, but at 1.1 ( while still cashing a check next year from the Canucks for about 400 K more than that ), anything he does in Toronto will get ( hopefully, we know how the COTU puck media gets ) a positive reaction.  The headlines when his first hunting tweet hits social media could be fun too.

As an older fan, I have always welcomed the " baseballification " of hockey , to a point.  There are times when you can see the pressure of one team sending the Corsi Tracker spinning.  The numbers back up the results.  But there were times last year when, writing the away game reviews, I would mention how the Canucks were on the plus side of those numbers. Too often in the Lost Season, it was a period or two, and the other team ended up scoring two goals against the play or some such thing, but what the hell...

That the biggest market in the NHL just embraced analytics, and something that some fans have known about for a while now will now get embraced by the media ( I do look forward to the TSN Special about Mr Dubas, as told by Steve Simmons ) in that biggest media market.

Another thing for us to talk about is never a bad thing, right ?

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Which brings us back to the one time " best team in Canada " out here on the Left Coast.  The downfall of last season made Canuck Nation and our team easy pickings for those that enjoy that sort of thing.  The change that it brought about was inevitable.  The above is something I like to refer to, because it is so simple.  You can look at that drop off on the brown line, and the mountain of excellence that preceded it left no doubt whatsoever who was the best ( at least in the regular season ) team in Canada.

Montreal has claim to that title going into the next season, if only for the fact the green line is the only one going up  ( yeesh, birthplace of hockey ! ), and the strong play in the playoffs that they produced is what counts anyhow.  In the end, no amount of pointing to the mountain is going to matter if the ( albeit, historically, epically steep ) cliff's fall is what we focus on.

We fell. It hurts when you fall from such a height.  While there is always the chance that there will be stumbles and travails going forward, I choose to look at the season to come with more excitement than trepidation.  Why, let's take a look :

- I agree with Daniel Wagner in the PITB article linked above.  I like the Canuck lineup, if Bo Horvat can break into it.  But there should be no pressure on the teenager.  His GM has already said that going back would not be the worst thing, even if all Bo has ( rightly, I love that he wants to be here THIS year ) heard is what Coach Willie has told him.  There is a chance there.  How much of one is the question.  Might be nice to have a teen sensation for a change.  Oh yeah, and the other "#1 Pick Guy" Brendan Gaunce, while probably being AHL bound, is reported to have taken some big steps.

- Westy explored the role of Zack Kassian recently here, and with the deal he signed one of those "show me, and I'll show you the quan" deals, there is no doubt that we will have a motivated player.  It is funny with Kassian.  Coming to this market, he has done reasonably well under the microscope, and his game seems to be growing every year.  He was one of the best players on the team in the second half of the Lost Season, and with the chance to make his mark, and grab Top 6 ice time, it should be fun to watch the SassQuatch.

- New Guy I ; Nick Bonino.  He scored a little more than Ryan Kesler last year ( and yes, I am well aware of who each of them were playing with ), and as the main piece in the deal with the Ducks, there will be comparisons.  Hell, there is probably a segment of our many faceted fanbase who still wont blow out the candles on the KesLord alter.  But they are different players.  I like what I have heard about how smart of a player Bonino is, and how he makes his linemates better.  That seems to be a theme with the new guys at pivot this year.  What about whether he makes folks forget about Fraser Valley Wireless's favorite pitchman ("hey..." ) sooner, later, or not at all ?  That is why they play the games man.  Check his ExtraSkater page. I like the PDO jumping up 10 points in the playoffs the year before last, and the 6 point jump in the playoffs once again this past year. Nice...a guy who "brings it". At least he has THAT in common with the departed 'Lord.

- New Guy II ; Radim Vrbata. His ExtraSkater page tells a few tales too, but the one I will mention here is his ice time usage.  That 49.9 % of his teams' power play time that he was on the ice for last year may just go up, if he can spark the special teams.  Part of the new Third Twin's duties will be to help the Bottom 5 power play get back into the heights it once enjoyed, not too long ago.  He signed here for the chance to play with Daniel and Henrik Sedin, and he will certainly get that opportunity.  The power play may be where he makes his most immediate impact, while developing Wizardous Sedinerie chemistry to a heretofore never before seen Swedish - Czech stratosphere.  How can you not get at least a little bit excited by that ? ;-)

- The one guy that intrigues me the most may just be Linden Vey.  The Los Angeles Kings had no compunctions about trading in the division on that one though, did they ?They wanted the pick that Jim Benning had, and Linden Vey was going to start getting difficult to keep around, for a spot he probably would not see for years.  The business of sport.  For all of that, he definitely looks like he is ready to make the jump to the NHL, after dominating the AHL.  He was the part that made the best line in that league go, and helped Toffoli and Pearson make a jump he was blocked from making.  Now he has his chance to prove that he is an NHLer too.  It is certainly all htere on a platter for him, with a coach he knows, a GM willing to give him every chance to grab meaningful centre minutes in the Canuck lineup.  He has to earn it, of course.  But this is the guy that I want to see in that first preseason shift.

Those are just a few. You like change, do ya ?  OK then...

- I don't know about you, but my money is on Alexandre Burrows rekindling his relationship with Canuck Nation. Fickle bunch that they are, eh Burr'?  It certainly can't get worse !?

- The "other guy" in net from 2010.  Ryan Miller brings a high degree of goaltending that will help Eddie Lack as well.  Young goaltenders benefit from coaching, and Torts' schedule prevented Eddie from ever getting any of that last year.  Problem solved.

- A good old Saskey Boy from Kindersly, Derek Dorestt will facepunch all comers if need be, but if the playoffs just past were any indication ( and he alway has brought it, even in CBJ colours ), he can actually play hockey too.

- Chis Higgins, one of the best in the Lost Season.

- Jannik Hansen needs a bounce back season ( though the once just past was not without merit, to be sure ) .  Just get back to the simple game Honey Badger. Especially on the forecheck, on the third line, if you please Willie... ;-)

- Niklas Jensen.  The flashes of talent from him are tantalizing, and he certainly got chances from Torts a times.

- Shawn Matthias is certainly a great idea as the perfect, big bruising fourth line centre who can play some, but am I the only one that thinks we might see some of the surfeit of centres going forward being utilized on the wing ? Because dude can skate, and hit pretty damn good.

- Willie Desjardins, meet Brad Richardson.  Why yes, he did have his best season in years on a team that was in a historically shitty tailspin, and brought it every night, why do you ask ?

- When you are 6'5", and 228, and show the flashes of NHLness like Tom Sestito has ( not often enough ) teased us with, it is tough to let go. Especially when you are in a division with Hartley and the truculent Flambes.

You have Mike Zalewski, an unknown quantity to the new regime, eager to impress, and Dane Fox, who knows that the first impression is always the best one, and for a scorer like him, if he can rip a few top corner early in the preseason, his impression on the fanbase and management could force him into a spot.  ( both GMMG guys, FWIW )

A restocked system of prospects that may even get us Top 20 with those guys at Hockey Futures, full of stories and promise.  Plus, the chance that Jim Benning still has a bullet or two in the chamber, if need be, or if teams are looking to move for the variety of reasons they always are as the season nears and the final Cap "I's" and "T's" need to be crossed.

That is just the forwards. Next time, a few thoughts on the changes the defense and goaltending has had.  Until then, you earned it, so here...enjoy.  The very best thing about the Eighties...I highly encourage you to just keep clicking the next one along.


Bottom Roster Players, Charts, Shot-Based Metrics, and You

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Strap in for a lot of charts focusing on the Ducks' lower line forwards.

This is going to be a chart-intensive post, so I will let all of that do most of the talking except to point out what I see. It will be long. Take many breaks.

There's a bit of haranguing about how signing (or potentially signing) older forward players is blocking the "youth movement" in Anaheim, so I wanted to look at a few of those young Ducks players. By and large, they are only an average group of players, and any team signing "known quantities" (even with some risk, a la Dany Heatley) is basically doing its job to ensure against that fact. There are a couple exceptional young talents here, and it doesn't seem like they are being blocked at this point.

A quick word on shot-based metrics again. I value them not just as statistical measures of what has occurred but also as a window into what a player is bringing to a team. The aim of hockey is to score the most goals in the game, therefore winning it. Goals are rare. Shooting a lot is less rare and is also the only way to make the rare goal occur, so any player that affects a team's ability to shoot more should be considered "better" at the aim of the game: winning.

There's more to hockey than shooting the puck, obviously. There's a wide variety of skills to consider. A player who doesn't help his team take more shots isn't "bad," per se, and could be providing value in other ways. But to me, the ultimate value a player can provide his team is "offense." This includes defensive-minded players, because they contribute toward offense more than points totals show. Offense isn't just goals and assists alone, because again those are rare events. Offense is shooting the puck, ie "being on offense."

All of that is to say:  the young players I am highlighting are by and large average (one or two above, most below) to this point in their careers as judged by shot-based metrics. What I mean is, regardless of the individual skills or finishing talents in question, none of them really help the Ducks' offense overall or at least consistently enough to be relied upon (yet). This isn't an analysis of why that is. This is more to say that even though we like these guys, they aren't putting the Ducks over the top or anything.

I am using data between the 2011-12 and 2013-14 seasons for all players, whenever possible. Some players don't go as far back, like Etem, or have holes between seasons. I'll try to note that in the text.

Kyle Palmieri

I did a post on Palmieri already, but this is further illumination on this player, in my opinion. Let's start with his forward WOWY (with or without you Corsi) numbers in chart form, minimum of 100 minutes played together. (How to read: blue is Palmieri in this case and player listed on chart together, red is Palmieri alone, green is player listed on chart alone.)

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Here's why Palmieri's numbers can get clouded: his top four is split between the very best (Getzlaf, Perry) or the very worst (Bonino, Beleskey). In fact, his minutes with Bonino and Beleskey have done an awful lot to hurt all three players. I'll get back to this when I get to Beleskey.

His WOWYs with defenders, same minutes.

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While his numbers with forwards suggest murkiness, the numbers with defensemen reaffirm my thought that Palmieri's defensive zone play is really shoddy. Defensemen tend to contribute toward "shots for" more than we might think, and forwards tend to contribute toward preventing "shots against" in the same way. Seeing all the defenders bump up without Palmieri on the ice implies a weakness in that.

How does that look overall, as a trend? Here's a look at his averages between 2011-14.

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This chart is all of the data in each respective field (generation, suppression, etc.) added together with points production to illustrate the player's on ice trend. I like it because it lends itself well to cross-player comparison, as can be seen throughout this post.  [Ed. Note:  For those of you, like me, unfamiliar with this type of chart, I found this example of three different types of players - Corey Perry: good prevention/generation w/ great point production, Justin Williams: Great prevention/generation w/ decent production and Patrick Marleau: Almost perfectly balanced - illustrative and useful. ... and now back to your regularly scheduled Palmieri Analysis. -CK]

I am encouraged that his raw shot suppression numbers aren't wildly out of sync with his shot generation, although I would expect his generation to be much better. His raw Corsi is pretty crummy, but he's also played with some wildly fluctuating possession players and is not elite in that area on his own. Palmieri likely turns a corner as a player if he puts himself in a better position to generate more; with his finishing skill, he could become a solid and dependable depth contributor.

Lastly, here's a trend map of his Corsi relative to teammates against his zone starts relative to teammates.

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As I noted before, his payout for cushy starts isn't high enough (yet) to have earned him more minutes from his coach.

Matt Beleskey

I like Beleskey's "game" (he skates hard and hits people) but have been working out how often I find myself questioning it by his numbers. On the forecheck, he's sensational. His neutral zone tracking appears solid enough, although he tends to either be too aggressive and behind his man or too conservative and well "behind the puck" defensively (prevents transition turnovers). Defensively, he leaves a lot to be desired. But that's pretty typical of a third or fourth line winger.

But he turns play toward offense at a worse clip than nearly anyone on the team. While I previously believed this had to do with who he played with, I am becoming more and more convinced that the problem is Beleskey himself. And that is precisely why stats like this matter: they reveal what we aren't seeing readily or don't want to believe once we see them.

Forward WOWYS, minimum 100 minutes.

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Any player seeing this much time with Parros will have deflated numbers, and we see how much better Beleskey was away from the likes of him and Gordon. The real interesting thing here is his numbers with Palmieri. From Kyle's viewpoint, he's better away from Matt; from Matt's viewpoint, he's better away from Kyle. Two considerations for this: 1. each were primarily with Bonino when together, so when apart they were also apart from him. (And neither player worked with Bonino centering them.) 2. When apart, they were usually jumping up to the team's best players (Getzlaf, Perry, etc.) and not like-fourth line talent. Usually.

His defensemen WOWYs, same minutes.

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Sami Vatanen is so, so, so stupid good. Anyway, same trends as Palmieri really, but more pronounced. It makes sense with this though.

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Consider: Palmieri is younger, plays on the opposite side, has slightly better numbers, and has played with better linemates overall. (Not spending 100 minutes with Parros is definitively better.) Beleskey has only SEVEN fewer points than Palmieri since 2011-12.

Both players need to generate far more shots to be effective, but it isn't like the talent isn't there for either guy. What has hurt both is the line of them paired with Bonino. Looking at it from Bonino's side, it was largely Beleskey who dragged them all down. This is worth exploring in the future, I think. Who were the defensive pairs when this line was out? Who was on the left side with Beleskey? I'd have to do more work to check that out.

But if I had to guess, I'd say Beleskey is the player we have before us. In a limited capacity, in primarily a forechecking role, he can likely still provide some value. But he doesn't add strength to the best when put with them, and that's the key difference between he and Palmieri. Getzlaf and Perry haven't been strong numbers-wise with Beleskey, and his experiment there should end. (Boudreau was using him with the Twins against the Kings before he was hurt, so let's not hold our breath.)

That being said, this should reaffirm how largely average (or below) both have been. Perhaps time away from Bonino (and each other) will improve both players.

Here's Beleskey's possession relative to zone start trend.

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Beleskey is Palmieri but without power play time and fewer P/60. Also: average. Palmieri is younger, however, and has more added value when put with better talent.

Devante Smith-Pelly

Devo's data is from 2011-12 and 2013-14, as he didn't play for the NHL team in 2012-13. That means there's less of it available than Palmieri and Beleskey. "Sample size" is real here because it tends to amplify numbers toward more extremes - the "regression to the mean" thing said about PDO is very true about these types of stats as well. Larger samples are always better.

Because there's less data for Smith-Pelly, I just dropped it all into one chart. It is a bit harder to follow, but that's life. This is a minimum of 60 minutes played.

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Once again, <3 Sami. One thing that pops up with Devo and Etem (in a sec) is how good Steckel makes his wingers. (Steckel is very interesting because he literally makes wingers look sensational and defenders look terrible. His own raw numbers are below-average. I've heard it said that he plays an AHL game and just never translated it up to the NHL. That's likely why teams have signed him to two-way deals for forever. He's a sensational mentor to have but not a very effective NHLer.)

So Steckel and Perreault (who we know is great) aside, Smith-Pelly was more or less a drag on most players. He played well with Cogliano and Palmieri, two guys who play on the right side. If there can be a good connection between him and Palmieri, perhaps we'll see some better numbers from both.

I'm not overly concerned about any of it yet considering he's appeared in less than one season worth of games. Too soon to really judge him as a player, but we can certainly look at what's there to show that his minutes have been largely below average for the Ducks. Both are true things.

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Again, sample size and all that, but hopefully the trend of his suppression being so godawful ceases. One thing Devo said he worked on with the Admirals is playing harder in all three zones, so going forward this should normalize some. We look at his playoff production and see hope, but let's not forget that he was also massively inconsistent during those games. He was negative one game, positive the next two, negative the next two, so on. His scoring of the clutch goals isn't maturity to his game so much as luck, which is important to have in sports. But counting on it to continue is foolish.

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Here's a silver lining to Devo's numbers: while his trend line is still negative, it gets noticeably better the nicer his starts got. There's a bit of optimism in thinking he can succeed in friendlier minutes and the right linemates in the future.

Emerson Etem

Etem has slightly fewer games than Smith-Pelly from which to pull, so everything there applies here. Oh and also Etem played 2012-13 to 2013-14, so that's a little different. This is over 60 minutes together.

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You can see the Steckel effect again and also another curious thing: Cogliano played well with this player. Sort of separately, I looked a little more at Cogliano because he's made an effective pairing with a surprising amount of players, especially other forwards. The only player, so far, that Cogliano didn't make better when they were together is Beleskey, who like I said is probably the drag on possession to begin with.

Also once again, SAMI IS THE BEST.

But small sample size.

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This chart is the reason I actually split out Etem from Smith-Pelly. There's a smaller gap between his suppression and generation numbers that give me a happy thought. That's a much better trend to recover from than Devo's, which is more lopsided. If Etem can learn to play a similar game to Cogliano with his speed, I think there's a lot of positive he can bring.

Again, like with Smith-Pelly, while we aren't judging Etem as a player yet we can say his additions to the roster to this point have been largely useless in terms of consistent offense.

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The second reason I split Devo and Etem. While there's a better suppression trend in Etem, he hasn't rewarded his coaches with better offense relative to zone starts over his teammates. That kills team-wide possession numbers, because those starts need to go to forwards who can generate better when they start closer to the other net.

Let's get off these scrubs and get to some heroes though. I'm tired of negativity.

Patrick Maroon

The big dog. He actually doesn't have a ton of data points. He's basically gotten Etem-esque minutes/games from 2012-13 to 2013-14. His first year was pretty sketchy, but then last year he turned into a totally different player who is amazing and grows great facial hair. (Also, Lindholm ending up in the forwards chart is an authorial oversight so whatever.)

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Perreault and Maroon had just about one of the best all-around pairings I've ever seen for the Ducks, to be honest. Getzlaf and Perry are the only ones I've seen that's similar or better, in fact. It really is a shame the team let Perreault walk, I feel like there was a great match there.

At the same time: look at how good Perry and Maroon played together. LOOK AT IT. Perry makes a lot of people better, namely Getzlaf, so this isn't really a new thing. Adding Maroon to that top line makes them really, really big and good. So if Perreault wasn't qualified because the team wants Pat up top more often, that's ok by me thank you very much.

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Hey look who is better away from Vatanen and also made Vatanen better? It's Pat! One interesting thing to note here, largely on guesswork and usage from my end: the WOWYs with Fowler tell me he's less effective in the shutdown role Boudreau fed Cam last year. So Maroon's not really here to be a checking line guy, which could spell trouble if we see him in that role with Kesler. (It may not, however, because Kesler is also very good.) This is ok if Maroon makes the top line a Superstar Elite Awesome Offense Line though, so who cares.

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Look at that: a depth player who generates more shots than he allows when on the ice. This is terrific. Think about how much better he will be in suppressing shots when his other winger isn't a 40-plus retiree who consistently cheated the zone and ditched his line defensively!

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A proper trend of possession relative to teammates relative to zone starts. Two things influenced this positively that weren't just Pat being great: 1. Selanne was very effective when starting close to the other net in terms of generation. 2. Perreault was extraordinarily effective at generating shot attempts off offensive zone draws, won or lost. On won draws, Maroon was either going straight to the net or to the wall to cycle the puck, so he played his role. On lost draws, and this is the key, Maroon was a hound in preventing a clean breakout and still generating offense for that line.

I bookend this with the same thing I start Smith-Pelly's section with: a small sample shows extremes a lot. So there's still a gamble in Maroon that he's not as good as he was last year. That's all valid and why I don't go gaga over Maroon. Unlike...

Jakob Silfverberg

I included him in here not because his minutes really fit, as he was decidedly playing second line minutes a lot last year. He's here because his games played is very similar to our first two players. HE'S ALSO HERE BECAUSE I LOVE HIM.

I split his WOWYs by team, the Senators in 20-whateverwhocares and the Ducks last season. Let's start with the Senators since most of you know nothing about them and rightfully so because they're assholes. Over 60 minutes here, since it is split by team.

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Here's what you want to take from that chart: Silfverberg was a positive player on a largely positive possession team. He also made a lot of really good players even better. For example, when defensive wunderkind Karlsson was on the ice with Silfverberg, other teams didn't touch the puck. The real data points you want to keep in mind are his numbers with Turris and Zibanejad, two extraordinary centers. Both are better than Silfverberg in raw open play possession, but he didn't really drag either one down in a noticeable way. That's very important.

Now, the Ducks.

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Love love love love love love. (I am singing this, you see. Sing along. Make up your own tune.)

Big difference? The team around Silfverberg wasn't as good at creating offense. And yet Silf is there, standing tall like a possession monster, and I love him.

Silfverberg was at his worst when paired with Koivu, which makes sense because the latter fell off a cliff after his injury. (Fowler and Lovejoy played behind the Koivu line the most, which explains that connection.) The same is true of his play with Cogliano, which was also on the line with Koivu. Here's where I try really hard to stay brief...

I think there was an intentional coaching shift after Koivu was nearly murdered in Columbus [Ed. Note: by his own stick -CK]. The way the team opened the year was hot fire, fast action, and tons of possession and corresponding chances. I believe that injury tamed Boudreau's system because he wanted to protect his players but also because losing the up-until-then very productive (offensively in terms of shot control) Koivu hurt his depth at a key position. The team set up shop defensively much more often, slowing the pace down, blocking more shots but not retrieving pucks as well and sending play up the ice as fast.

There's some logic to this too. In raw percentage terms, the longer a team holds the offensive zone, the lower their chances are of scoring off a proper scoring chance. (Scoring as a random event increases because the puck stays closer to the net.) Remember, the correlation to possession but also to scoring chance tracking is why we like shot-based metrics. That's the real reasoning behind coaches saying "push them to the perimeter." It isn't so much that there's a designed system to do this so much as the natural occurrence of 10 skaters in a small space eventually pushes the puck out to the sides. What high event teams (like Dallas or Ottawa) do is retrieve it quickly and play more of the game off transition. This means less bodies in the zone, which also means the puck can slide through it easier and open up goalies. Low event teams (Los Angeles or New Jersey) dominate the zone with a lot of body movement and perimeter passing and shots from everywhere in the hopes that eventually something happens. One day I'll get back to this topic.

Boudreau has hinted before that he's very aware of "fancystats." Whether he brings them to his staff or the room, I've heard him mention them in a few interviews and quotes. I've also seen him do things that indicates he gets the principles of what it all means. Zone time is good but less important than chance creation. The prevention of chances against is more important than giving up the zone. And his systems off faceoffs is absurdly smart. What he sees in hockey is offense-minded, so it stands to reason that his principles are aligned with shot-based metrics.

Going back to his Washington days, he took a dominant possession team and tamed it trying to play more cautious. Since being here in Anaheim, he's improved the team's underlying numbers but not to a significant degree, and last season suggested it's by intent. The Ducks roared out of the gate and were killing teams with the puck. That Koivu injury started a very consistent plummet in possession, and I think he played it safe by giving up the zone and by locking down the middle (with bodies) as a focus. Go watch the Anaheim-St. Louis game immediately following the Olympic break to see this in action the most.

All of this is to say, I believe Boudreau saw a strong possession player in Silfverberg and intentionally paired him with the struggling Koivu in attempts to keep that line afloat. And privately, now that the older veterans are gone and some young blood and legit second line talent are here, I hope Boudreau opens things back up and lets the Ducks fly the way we saw them start the year (or when trailing in games).

When Jakob was away from Saku, Cam, and ol' Benny Love, he was more or less the same strong player that his career numbers show. He played well with Bonino and Perreault and even brought some respectability to Beleskey's possession game. That takes talent.

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Angels are now singing with me, a heavenly tune. Where Silfverberg goes, shot generation follows.

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Start him closer to the opposing net, more shots will happen. Yay!

If anyone is deserving of a slot alongside Kesler, Silfverberg and Cogliano top the list in my mind. But it wouldn't shock me if Bruce uses Jakob to bring along any younger centers if needed, like oh say my favorite Rickard Rakell. The Ducks should give Silfverberg a ton of money, by the way.

This is getting out of hand but I have one more just for comparison.

Nate Thompson

He's a fourth line center. I have no idea what he'll bring but I'm not extraordinarily hopeful he'll be turning play with any degree of success. Still, depth at center is depth at center, and the organization wants that right now.

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He slowed Martin St. Louis down a lot, but that happens when two weaker possession players get paired up.

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The Hedman and Bergeron pairings intrigue me because Anaheim has some comparable defensemen in terms of playing style. So there's some hope Thompson can at least hold it down in some instances.

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Again, below average but probably not completely awful.

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He's had a lot of unfriendly starts in his career, so there could be some easier explanations for his iffy numbers. When he's given friendlier starts, he does just ok. Again, he's a fourth line center at best.

ALTOGETHER NOW

Last chart. This is everyone's trends together. Why not. Looks pretty.

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Really, only Silfverberg and Maroon (in a small sample) show real quality as depth players to this point. As long as guys like Thompson or Heatley aren't blocking them, there's really no issue in my mind. Thompson provides flexibility at center and Heatley has several 50-goal seasons that none of the Ducks youth have. Is he old? Yup. But 50 NHL goals in one season shows really friggin' good hands, and he's done it more than once. On the cheap, he's a risk worth taking and a slot worth giving up, if he can keep up.

A player like Palmieri has certainly earned a right to play a full season but hasn't showed anything that demands a larger role yet. I feel that, of all the young wingers, he's the closest to turning the corner. If he does, there's no reason he can't slide around third or even top out at second line minutes.

Someone like Beleskey may be nothing better than a utility fourth liner who can jump up and down the roster, especially if he can't carry any offense. He does have pretty respectable points totals for that role. Can he improve? Possibly.

Smith-Pelly and Etem should probably be competing against each other for ice time at this stage. If they both get in, all the better. But nothing suggests that either one or the other sitting out is killing the team, depth-wise. If the playoffs Smith-Pelly is the real deal, he's got the edge in my mind for earning a slot on this roster. If he ends up upgrading what Beleskey is, I'm ok with it.

So all in all, I'm tired of this already, goodbye now!

2014 Season Review: Dwight King

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Of course I am the one writing this review.


Dwight King Corsi, 2011-14

GPCorsi RelativeCorsi OnExpected CorsidCorsi
2011-1227-5.412.9124.5088.404
2012-1347-6.18.14811.546-3.398
2013-14775.518.96314.5944.369

Positives

Dwight King has two cup rings, an additional conference finals appearance, and just one full season in the NHL under his belt, so one clear positive swinging in his favor is that he is a winner. Proven winner. In 10 years he'll provide the veteran leadership and grit some team desperately needs to secure a deep playoff run.

Thankfully, Dwight had himself a pretty nice season so we can come up with some real positives instead of grasping at straws. His raw corsi sat at 58.5%, which was good for 10th in the league. Almost regardless of linemates and deployment, he had a nice enough season right there. Anything more would've been icing on the cake, and he was actually able to provide a substantial amount on top of that.

King's most common linemates this past season were Anze Koptar and Jeff Carter (a shade under 400 minutes with both of them). Surprisingly, both Kopitar and Carter saw their corsi get worse away from King than it was with him. It's a small sample size, but it's very encouraging that King did not turn out to be a burden for the team's best two forwards.

King's scoring chance numbers actually profile him as a very capable fill-in in an offensive role. He had the 3rd-best 5v5 scoring chance share (56.5%) on the team and was involved in 5.5 scoring chances per 60 minutes of play, good for a three-way tie for 6th on the team with Marian Gaborik and Tanner Pearson. I won't argue that his ideal role is in the top two lines (or even the top three), but in the event of injuries he is certainly not going to do any damage.

King experienced a significant uptick in scoring success this season. His 1.44 points/60 at 5v5 tied him with Tanner Pearson for 6th on the team. His goal 0.662 goals/60 also place him 6th on the team. The overall numbers are still positive, even if they're not glowing. They're certainly a significant step forward from his 2013 numbers which were abysmal.

Dwight also has the cutest baby on planet earth. This is his wife's twitter. Go there and marvel at how this man created that baby. This is a huge positive to me. Way to go buddy.

Negatives

I like King overall, but a lack of offensive skill is more than apparent in his game. Though his overall scoring chance numbers are acceptable, he creates just 3.6 chances per 60 minutes, which is 9th on the team. He is behind offensive luminaries like Matt Frattin and Trevor Lewis.

His lack of skill is displayed no more clearly than it is in his zone entry numbers. For one, he doesn't get involved in neutral zone play very well. His 19.39 entries per 60 are good for 12th on the team, which is abysmal. More than that, he simply does not have enough skill or speed to carry the puck into the zone with any regularity. At 6.32 carry-ins/60, he carries the puck into the offensive zone considerably less than any other forward on the team. His 32.61% carry-in success rate is also good for last on the team among forwards.

Though he did see his scoring numbers jump considerably, there remains question as to whether that is a real improvement or simply a matter of shooting luck. King does not have enough of a sample at the NHL level to draw meaningful conclusions from in any direction. By the eye-test he doesn't seem like he'd be an 11% shooter,  but he does now have 1300+ minutes during which he has bested that figure (2011/12 and this season). His on-ice shooting percentage numbers (basically, the success of his teammates while he was on the ice) don't seem too wacky, but he benefited from significant minutes with the team's best forwards this season. As the Kings are now a team with considerably more depth than they were when he joined the top line, it seems reasonable to expect him to A) not see the ice with the team's best players as often and B) for his shooting numbers to drop as a result. Even more than that, he might just simply not be the shooter he was this season.

Highlight

Perhaps nothing better encapsulates his successful season than him pulling off a ridiculous move on one of the league's best defenders to set up Jeff Carter's tap-in goal to the complete shock of everyone on the ice in the world. Jeff Carter's disbelieving stare was one of my favorite moments of the entire regular season.

Going Forward

Dwight King heads into arbitration with an awful lot of leverage for a player of his limited skill set. He's a useful role player for sure, he appears to be a pretty decent defensive player, and I am sure his agent is going to play up with a gritty hearty tough big winner he is. My position on players like King is that they are useful to a team until they draw a real paycheck. Cheap depth players that can actually play without destroying the team's chances to succeed while they are on the ice are more valuable to a team than they are in trade, but those same players don't necessarily deserve gobs of money. Their value lies in how cheap they are more than it lies in their effectiveness.

King's ceiling may already be met, and even if it hasn't, it can't be very far above his head. However, he is due for a pay raise and a significant one would be a detriment to the team. He is a depth player that should only fill in on the top lines in a pinch, even if he won't hurt the team in that role. Should his paycheck remain small, he should remain a King.

Grade

Relative to role and expectations, it's pretty hard to give him anything other than an 'A'. King exceeded my wildest dreams this season, but his bar to clear was mere inches off the ground. Frankly, the grade can be interpreted so many ways that I can see any number of grades. His actual production was probably a 'B'. He was pretty boring to actually watch play the game, which is an 'F'. He didn't murder anyone, which is A+. I'll go ahead and give him an 'A' just because I was so pleasantly surprised by his play.

Poll
What grade would you give Dwight King this season?

  65 votes |Results

Was Ray Shero Xenophobic?

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A look at whether Ray Shero avoided players based on their ethnicity.

I used to subscribe to the "Ray Shero is a Wizard" school of thought. That line of thinking held that Ray Shero was a fabulous GM who rarely made mistakes, and his brilliance was most prominently on display when making trades with other GMs. But about 18 months ago I began to question more of his moves and lose faith in his ability to build a competitive team. As events unfolded this year and more evidence came to light, my opinion on Ray Shero permanently shifted. One thing I didn't think, though, was that Ray Shero was xenophobic. But some have argued he was. I'd like to see if this is true.

There's a great website called Quant Hockey that has a graph of NHL player nationality going back approximately 100 years. It highlights that the NHL was almost entirely Canadian through 1970, and that the league was 90% American and Canadian players through 1990. What's more, even in today's age of tolerance and the free flow of information, roughly 75% of the league is still composed of American and Canadian players. Here's the graph (please click all images to enlarge).

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This provides us a basis for defining xenophobia in hockey: the avoidance of players who aren't Canadian or American. I'll lazily call that group Europeans. The difficulty in measuring xenophobia though is that there isn't an optimal number of Europeans to have on your team; some bad teams have a lot and some good teams have very few.

So to get around this, I'm going to look at the number of Europeans on each team that won the Cup in the last seven seasons (the Behind the Net era). Since rosters change mid-season due to trades and injuries, I'm going to count the number of Europeans on each team's roster during the regular season and the playoffs using the data at Quant Hockey. I'm including players who played in 20 or more regular season games (10 in the lockout-shortened year) and/or 4 or more playoff games for each team in each year.

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The two things that stick out to me are (1) how much of an outlier Detroit is and (2) how few Europeans were on any of these Stanley Cup winning teams. Other than Detroit, only the 2013 Blackhawks had more than five Europeans play in 20 or more games during the regular season, or 4 or more games during the playoffs. Indeed, the Hawks in 2010 and the Bruins in 2011 each only had four European players play four or more games in the playoffs.

The LA Kings were even more American/Canadian-centric. They only had five European skaters meet the games played threshold in either the regular season or the playoffs in their two years combined. That's because they only had two or three European skaters on their team at any one time.

With this in mind, here are the numbers for the Penguins over that same time period.

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Those numbers are right in line with the ones we saw above for each Stanley Cup champion over the last seven years; European skaters generally comprised between ten and twenty percent of the winning roster. In terms of raw numbers, the Stanley Cup winners averaged 5.7 European skaters to play 20 or more games in the regular season and 5.3 European skaters to play four or more games in the playoffs. If you remove Detroit from the equation, you get 4.7 European skaters in the regular season and 4.3 in the playoffs.

The Penguins are very close to that. They averaged 3.6 European skaters in the regular season and 3.7 in the playoffs, which is on the cusp of the group without Detroit. Even including Detroit doesn't change the picture that much. And the most reassuring thing is that the Penguins have had more Europeans during this time than the Kings have had during their two Cup runs. They're good company to be in, and if Ray Shero is xenophobic, so is Dean Lombardi (a conclusion I suspect those who originally made the xenophobic claim don't want to reach).

Of course, the NHL in general might still be xenophobic, but that's entirely different than pinning this all on one man. Ray Shero might not have established European scouts as quickly as he should have, but given that the NHL is still 75% North American, delay in scouting Europeans is natural.

I've come to the opinion that Ray Shero should have been fired after he failed to move on from Fleury after the Philly series. Though he was fired two years too late, he was fired for justifiable reasons--asset management being the biggest one. Xenophobia, on the other hand, was never an issue, unless you believe that the Kings, Bruins, and Hawks suffer from the same problem. I don't think that's the case.

Staff Report Cards : Brandon Bollig

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It's time to take a look at the 2013-14 Lion.

All situations
5 on 5 on-ice
EV
5 on 5
GP
G
A
P
TOI/60
S/60
Sh%
PenD
CF%
CF% rel
GF%
GF% rel
Sh%
Sv%
PDO
ZS%
ZS% rel
EVTOI%
PPTOI%
SHTOI%
QoC TOI%
QoT TOI%
Regular Season82771410.17.86.40%-1250.90%-5.60%48.30%-8.30%7.20%90.90%98.118.30%-46.60%19.70%0.80%4.50%28.30%27.70%
Playoffs150115.850.00%035.40%-14.20%12.50%-40.00%3.40%87.50%90.918.50%-38.90%11.90%0.60%0.00%26.20%28.00%

I don't think anyone or any subject caused more debates in Blackhawks fandom than Brandon Bollig did during the 2013-14 season.  Bollig's roller coaster season went from leading the Western Conference in goals for exactly seven minutes to a three year contract extension to being traded to the Calgary Flames on draft day.

Brandon Bollig spent the summer of 2013 in Chicago working on his overall game because he knew that the one dimensional fighters are a dying breed in today's NHL.  The hard work did pay off and you saw some major improvements to his game.  He finished the season with seven goals which is seven more than he had in 43 career regular season games coming into the year.  Bollig was one of only four Blackhawks to play in all 82 regular season games.  It still blows my mind that Brandon Saad was a healthy scratch more times than Bollig was this past season.  Bollig was an ok fourth liner for a better part of the first half of the season.  His season seemed to take a nose dive after the Olympic break and shortly after he got a three year contract extension on March 3rd.  I don't know if it was the three weeks away from the game or the new found security but there is no arguing that Bollig was not the same player down the stretch.

The playoffs were not kind to Brandon Bollig.  He saw his time on ice average drop from 10:17 in the regular season to just 6:22 in the playoffs.  He was suspended for two games in the Minnesota series for a dirty boarding hit on Keith Ballard.  He also found himself a healthy scratch for the one and only time of the season but was back in the lineup for the first game of the Western Conference Finals versus the Kings.  As the series progressed his playing time decreased. In the final game of the year Bollig had just four shifts for 2:23 of ice time.

Bollig still lacks a real nose for defense even though he was tied with Marcus Kruger for the team lead in defensive zone starts at 50.7%.  It seemed like most of the time he was skating around the ice looking to hit someone and hoping he'd end up in the right place.  He did lead the team with 203 hits, for what its worth.  Was it just me, or did Bollig have a knack to make the majority of hits right by the on ice microphones for maximum effect, as the play was skating the other way?

Most of my issues with Brandon Bollig in the 2013-14 season actually had nothing to do with Bollig himself (well except for some now infamous Tweets), but rather with his usage.  It wasn't his fault he played every game while younger, better players like Brandon Pirri, Jeremy Morin and Ben Smith couldn't find the lineup.  Hell, towards the end of the season Peter Regin was a better option than Bollig.  Joel Quenneville always has a pet goon that he loves to play for a couple of minutes a night. We've seen it with Ben Eager, John Scott and Daniel Carcillo in the past.  As Bollig's level of play diminished I couldn't understand what purpose he served on this team and that a player like Jeremy Morin could not offer more.  The biggest argument for Bollig to play every night was that he was a "deterrent" but that couldn't be further from the truth.  Marcus Kruger and Ben Smith were hit a combined 250 times during the year so Bollig wasn't exactly scaring anybody.  When Antoine Roussel was having his way with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane was it Bollig who stood up for his team? Nope, it was Andrew Shaw.  Most of Bollig's fights were of the staged slap fight variety that we saw him have with the likes of Ryan Reeves and Chris Neil. So if his job was to protect his teammates he didn't do it very well.

If I were to grade Brandon Bollig by comparing him to the rest of the team it will be a very low grade. But, when I grade him based on the expectations I had for him going into the season he marks much better.  I give Bollig a C+.

Why Ice Girls are Important

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Time to educate you idiots

This has gone on long enough. Stop. Stop the tweeting. Stop the blogging. I will end this debacle. If you somehow have missed it, the San Jose Sharks have set off the worst attack on women since, well, ever. They took away their employees' rights to access to birth control, made ticket prices for women more expensive, women have to attend the game in their underwear, and if some guy wants to hook up with a female during the intermission they have to comply.

Actually, none of that is true and the Sharks are hiring Ice Girls.

Since it is the Sharks however, things didn't go the way they were supposed to, and now they look like a bunch of fucking idiots. (again!) It seems to me the poor innocent Ice Girls are being viciously scapegoated by the out of control, cave dwelling, deranged fan-base. The Sharks were well on their way to completing their off-season project of turning their joke of a franchise around with the signings of John Scott, Mike Brown, and a sock full of semen. But instead they failed to trade underachieving phenoms, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. Obviously, their fans were not happy with this lack of activity, so when the Sharks made the innocent announcement they were hiring Ice Girls the masses latched onto this bit of news, and said the move was completely idiotic, which was totally irrational.

Thankfully, one fan kept a level head throughout the storm and wrote why Ice Girls are great or something. It was really, really long and I didn't actually read it. But the naysayers threw the sensible one in front of a figurative train like they were some unwanted baby being thrown in front of a literal train. So, okay, I know you Sharks fans are upset that your team only half completed its turnaround. But you have all forgotten the benefits Ice Girls bring to communities. Allow me to enlighten you.

THEY WILL SAVE THE SHARKS

The Sharks are a team Vancouvering Canucking along right now. They are incapable of winning, and refuse to commit to the necessary rebuild. Their TV contract is terrible, the fans are committing mass suicides, and the arena is stilled called the SAP Center. The rumors are that the team may possibly relocate. Ice Girls are literally the only thing stopping the Sharks from running to Seattle (where they already love alliteration and teal jerseys). There are plenty of passionate fans that could be in attendance to see a combined ninety seconds of scantily clad women clean ice. Yet the Sharks have been hesitant at taping those reserves because they only want pocket protector wearing virgins who are terrified of sex going to games. But the fandom of real fans can save the franchise from moving to an actual city and out of a suburb.

APPEARANCES ARE EVERYTHING

Would you take a team that features a guy named Freddy wearing sweats cleaning your ice and a player who is a grown man-child named Patrick with out of control eyebrows? Or would you want a woman named Cheri who's half naked cleaning ice suggestively, while you have a player who was a Mon-Star from Space Jam named John Scott gets ready to murder someone? You already know the answer.

Plus, if you are a sick kid dying from something, getting visited by an ice girl is way better than Sharkie.

WINNING!

The Kings got Ice Girls and won two Stanley Cups. Science.

IT'S FUN TO PISS OFF NERDS

Sure, some may say that the idea of Ice Girls is sexist, but they're just unattractive and jealous. They may try and "fight the good fight", but how can you hate pretty young ladies? These are the type of people that go to Hooters for the food.

IT GIVES GOALIES SOMETHING TO LOOK AT

Specifically, for Craig Anderson.

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I KNEW ONE GIRL WHO TRIED OUT FOR THE KINGS' ICE GIRL CREW BACK WHEN I ATTENDED NORTHRIDGE, AND SHE WAS REALLY COOL AND HOT AND I HOPE SHE IS READING THIS SO SHE WILL BE FLATTERED AND GO OUT WITH ME

Pretty self explanatory, really

HUMOR!

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And she still made it look good.

Wilderness Walk: Walk Symphony, Opus II

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A continuation of yesterday's musical theme.

As some of you know, I am an (in real life) a music and band director in a small town in Wisconsin. Yesterday's walk piqued my interest, to say the least. Today will feature some great music, in multiple styles. I'll try not to get too music-nerd-ish... but no promises.

By the by- that picture above (again, not me- it's Leonard Bernstein) has a number of GREAT photos.

It's not a huge news day with regards to the Wild, but there are some fun stories here... so enjoy! 2 months till hockey... the countdown can't go fast enough!

Wild News

Dumba Hopes To Stay In One Place This Season - Minnesota Wild | Features

Becoming Wild Teaser - Nino's Summer Video | Minnesota Wild

From the Frozen Pond (Minnesota Hockey News)

Top Goalies Training In Blaine This Weekend | Minnesota Hockey

On Tap (Draft News)

Beyond Tomorrow: McDavid, Eichel head Class of 2015 - Hockey's Future

Off the Trail

NHL - 2014 Stanley Cup finals: New York Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist ticked at crease-crashing goal - ESPN

NHL Offseason Training: So much for Summer

Make NHL Overtime 6 on 6? | The Hockey Writers

NHL general managers love overpaying for so-called 'winners' | SBNation.com

Why do NHL teams give goalies long, stupid contracts? | SBNation.com

The Kings provide the blueprint for building a salary cap era Stanley Cup champion - SBNation.com

Maple Leafs hiring Kyle Dubas an assault on old boys network | Puck Daddy - Yahoo Sports

Rangers avoid arbitration with Derick Brassard, agree to five-year, $25 million deal | Puck Daddy - Yahoo Sports

Hitting The Post: Dreams of 2018 | Hitting the Post

Canadiens' Subban wants to 'be a lifer' in Montreal; contract talks being kept intentionally quiet | theScore

Jeff Carter's trophy collection might be the most impressive in sports

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This is Jeff Carter's career to date. He is 29 years old.

The list:

- 2003 World Under-18 Hockey Championship with Canada (second from right)
- 2005 World Junior Hockey Championship with Canada (far left)
- 2005 AHL Calder Cup with Philadelphia Phantoms (second from left)
- 2012 Stanley Cup with Los Angeles Kings (center)
- 2014 Olympic Gold with Canada (far right)

Not included are his 2014 Stanley Cup ring, which he's yet to receive, and his silver medal from the 2004 World Junior Hockey Championships. His name will be etched on the Cup again, too, of course.

As impressive as Carter's collection is, though, Kings teammate and good friend Mike Richards can give him a run for his money. Richards has won all of the above accolades aside from the U18 gold, but can add the 2003 Memorial Cup to his trophy case. Other players with similarly impressive résumés include, well ... any member of the Triple Gold Club.


Staff Report Cards: Andrew Shaw

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Nobody makes me bleed my own blood.

All situations
5 on 5 on-ice
EV
5 on 5
GP
G
A
P
TOI/60
S/60
Sh%
PenD
CF%
CF% rel
GF%
GF% rel
Sh%
Sv%
PDO
ZS%
ZS% rel
EVTOI%
PPTOI%
SHTOI%
QoC TOI%
QoT TOI%
Regular Season8020193915.47.113.40%156.90%1.90%58.90%5.00%9.40%91.60%101.168.60%16.90%25.00%50.90%5.30%27.70%28.30%
Playoffs1226815.25.910.00%055.00%8.00%64.70%19.50%13.10%91.00%104.166.30%17.40%26.60%40.20%0.10%27.90%29.60%

Kind of nuts that Andrew Shaw just completed his first full 82-game season with the Blackhawks. Seems like the passed over twice, fifth rounder has been around for a lot longer than that. Shaw has grown into one of the most revered Blackhawks as he blends together old and new school hockey. Stat freaks love his possession metrics and his attitude and style embody the scrappy white kid archetype. While he does have his bouts of stupid, Shaw is an effective depth forward.


Regular Season

20 goal scorer is not a phrase you think would be attached to Shaw, but he played at that pace for two seasons before hitting that mark this year. To put that in perspective, his Goals For % was a smidge behind Toews for top of the squad. Shaw continued to be an asset on the power play where he potted 5 goals from, what one would assume, was a combined distance of about 6 feet. His ability to go to the dirty areas, play in front of the net, and be that pest player earned him his job. It’s one of those situations where Keep It Simple Stupid has paid off.
However, that edge game comes with its downfalls and he is prone to stupid penalties. He finished the year with the second most PIMs behind Brandon Bollig. But his energy also drove a lot of the play during those midseason doldrums when some guys want to check out. No one can ever accuse Shaw of not being engaged, I guess aside from his girlfriend.


Playoffs

Shaw’s playoffs started out a bit bumpy as he had some trouble dealing with the Blues depth. He matched up a lot with Schwartz and Sobotka. While he wasn’t getting crushed, he wasn’t being that X factor that the Blackhawks need from him. It wouldn’t be until game 4 when Shaw and fellow third liner Bryan Bickell would each pot a goal while in front of the net.


After taking a hit from Clayton Stoner, Shaw missed the rest of the Wild series and the first two contests with the Kings. He returned for game 3 in LA. But the story for Shaw was games 5,6,7 where he stepped up to center Patrick Kane and Brandon Saad. Shaw played admirably, picking up four assists as the threesome possessed the ever-loving shit out of the Kings. A lot of it was due to Saad turning into an absolute terrifying hockeyman, but Shaw filled the pivot in a way that no one else had done. He also ended up the playoff team leader in CF% at 55.0%, tied with Bryan Bickell.


Future Considerations

With a new 2 year $2 million deal, Shaw is a damn bargain and should be poised to bumslay for the foreseeable future. He will be an RFA afterwards, and it's difficult to say if he is a long term guy. Next year, I think it’s a little more blurry than Brad Richards getting the automatic nod at 2C. While that is easily his most useful position, Q has a tendency to default to what he trusts most. Early in the year, I could see Shaw logging time with Kane and Saad. The Blackhawks are much better suited with Shaw on the 3rd line, preferably at a wing, but beggars can’t be choosers. You’d love to see him hook up with whatever guru took Marcus Kruger from a 46% to a 56% faceoff man over a summer. There is no reason to think that Shaw won’t play his same game that has brought to the Blackhawks since 11-12.


Shaw gets a B on the season.

Jake Gardiner Re-signs With Toronto Maple Leafs, Dallas Stars' Brenden Dillon Waits

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The Gardiner contract re-affirms the market for young defensemen.

Dallas Stars defenseman Brenden Dillon is still floating in restricted free agency limbo. Little information about the negotiations is available outside of references to the situation taking some time to reach a resolution. In the interim, one of Dillon's peers has signed.

Jake Gardiner re-signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs yesterday. The two parties agreed to a five year contract worth 20.25 million dollars. The 24 year old defenseman has 65 points in 167 games and is very worthy of the commitment. We can add his contract to this list I threw together in the middle of last season:

FirstLastYearsCap Hit
DrewDoughty87,000,000
ErikKarlsson76,500,000
AlexPietrangelo76,500,000
OliverEkman-Larsson65,500,000
ZachBogosian75,142,857
AlexEdler65,000,000
RyanMcDonagh64,700,000
JackJohnson74,357,143
Marc-EduardVlasic54,250,000
KevinShattenkirk44,250,000
SlavaVoynov64,166,667
NiklasHjalmarsson43,500,000
CamFowler54,000,000
RomanJosi74,000,000
VictorHedman54,000,000
JohnCarlson63,966,667
TravisHamonic73,857,143
ErikJohnson43,750,000
JaredCowen43100000
JaredSpurgeon32,666,667
Average5.754,540,357.2

This is the list of the young defensemen making money at the time, and what do you know? Gardiner fits right in the middle. The Gardiner extension only strengthens the case for Dillon to get a decent contract.

Unless, of course, you think Gardiner is significantly more valuable than Dillon. He isn't, and I'll show you why.

The main argument in Gardiner's favor is offensive production. If we only look at last season, we can see a pretty easy comparison. Both played 80 games. Gardiner recorded 31 points to Dillon's 17. It seems pretty obvious that Gardiner is a significantly better offensive player, but consider where the points came from.

Dillon had ZERO powerplay points. Gardiner had 11. For every 60 minutes of ice time, Dillon only saw about six seconds on the powerplay. Gardiner got a respectable 2:15. This isn't to say that powerplay production isn't a skill to some degree, but the significant increase in opportunities should impact the point totals. When you take the powerplay scoring away, Gardiner only had four more points.

And it isn't like Dillon didn't get special teams time. He was a significant contributor on the penalty kill. He took about 2:20 per 60 minutes compared to about 30 seconds for Gardiner. Dillon was easily the second most effective penalty killer last season for the Stars behind Jordie Benn. What he did on the penalty kill doesn't show up in point totals the way Gardiner's powerplay production did.

A quick glance at the fanciest of fancy stats further drives the point home. These two aren't the same player, but they are both very good.

NameOZ%RankQualCompRankCorsi
Dillon47.910.875150.9
Gardiner43.76-0.617546.4

The terrible Leafs were hesitant to rely on Gardiner for anything defensively. That certainly could have been an error by the Randy Carlyle Truculence Think Tank, but the reality is that the two are on polar opposites of the usage spectrum. The Stars relied heavily upon Dillon as a defensive player while the Leafs used Gardiner in a predominantly offensive role. Despite this, they were similarly productive at even strength.

Why is Gardiner worth this contract, but Dillon isn't? The only reason is the point total and that argument doesn't hold up. I suppose you could make the argument that Gardiner is signing away a few free agent years and that certainly should be noted. But as we've seen, younger defensemen are getting long term deals across the league. Dillon has every right to expect to be paid like his peers.

And this, friends, is why Dillon isn't under contract. Dillon has legitimate comparables that suggest he is worth a long term deal. The Stars have restricted free agent rights they appear to be sticking to in a time when teams are increasingly locking their young players up long term.

The Stars are currently benefiting from two such deals in Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. The best teams in the league have been built around such team friendly deals in recent years. The Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings are two prime examples. If the Stars want to continue to build in that mold, it would behoove them to lock Dillon up. The chances of a long term deal for Dillon similar to the one Gardiner received backfiring at all are slim. As he ages, the deal would look even better as the salary cap continues to rise.

The Stars can play hardball with Dillon due to their defensive surplus, but no rational person believes they would stick anyone from the AHL in the lineup in place of Dillon after acquiring Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky. The Stars are trying to win now. Winning now includes Dillon. He and the Stars both know this, but I just can't comprehend a scenario where he signs a contract for a smaller cap hit than Trevor Daley.

Have you ever looked at a situation and said "that doesn't make sense"? I do this often. When I do, I tend to try to understand what doesn't make sense. In this case it seems so obvious that Dillon should get paid that you can even just look at the fact that he gets 20 minutes a night on a quality team and derive a level of value for him.  The question becomes this: does it benefit the Stars to drag their feet?

It might, but at the very least it doesn't hurt them to wait. The price for Dillon isn't going to go up, and the longer the Stars wait maybe, just maybe, they can pull some extra value out of Sergei Gonchar in a trade.

Ultimately though, Dillon is going to get signed. It's taking some time, but fear not. The Stars know they have a good player and they've shown that they mean to be taken seriously this year. That gets much more difficult without Dillon.


Dwight King Signs Three-Year, $5.85 Million Contract

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THREE MORE YEARS OF KILLER KING JOKES

The Los Angeles Kings tend to get deals done when arbitration is looming. This year, the Kings only had to deal with one restricted free agent approaching arbitration. And as threatening as Dwight King is, you just knew LA was going to try to avoid battling him over terms. This morning, it was confirmed by Elliotte Friedman:

A few hours later, Jon Rosen brought us the financial terms:

LA was at a bit of a crossroads with King. A one-year deal, or a trip to arbitration, would have signaled an eventual desire to move on from King and look for other bottom six options. A three-year deal? That's entirely different. The only players signed longer are the so-called "core" players (Brown, Richards, Carter, Gaborik, Doughty, Voynov, Quick), plus Matt Greene. It's clear that LA believes in King as a third-line left wing, and even if he doesn't score 15 goals next season (hint: he probably won't), he fits the Kings' style perfectly and is a benefit to the team's possession abilities.

King's value is higher than it has ever been right now, so a raise was inevitable. LA managed to avoid going above the salary cap by giving King the stability of a three-year deal, which will take him to Unrestricted Free Agent status That's big; regardless of which borderline players the Kings keep and which ones the Kings send to Manchester, LA will be a couple hundred thousand dollars clear. Via Cap Geek, here's a potential look:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
Possible Opening Night 23-Man Roster
FORWARDS
Marian Gaborik ($4.875m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Dustin Brown ($5.875m)
Tanner Pearson ($0.736m) / Jeff Carter ($5.273m) / Tyler Toffoli ($0.717m)
Dwight King ($1.950m) / Jarret Stoll ($3.250m) / Justin Williams ($3.650m)
Kyle Clifford ($1.075m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Trevor Lewis ($1.525m)
Jordan Nolan ($0.700m)
DEFENSEMEN
Drew Doughty ($7.000m) / Slava Voynov ($4.167m)
Robyn Regehr ($3.000m) / Matt Greene ($2.500m)
Alec Martinez ($1.100m) / Jake Muzzin ($1.000m)
Jeff Schultz ($0.850m) / Brayden McNabb ($0.650m)
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Quick ($5.800m)
Martin Jones ($0.550m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$50,000
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,841,894; BONUSES: $342,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $158,106

What do you think of the new deal? Let's argue about it in the comments!

Poll
What do you think of Dwight King's new three-year, $5.85 million contract?

  122 votes |Results

2014 Season Review: Anze Kopitar

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Anze Kopitar Corsi, 2008-2014

GPCorsi RelativeCorsi OnExpected CorsidCorsi
2007-08825.5-6.666-2.615-4.051
2008-098212.38.8355.193.645
2009-108211.28.6794.5524.127
2010-11758.39.9033.1145.979
2011-128213.819.41910.49.019
2012-134718.424.61214.30310.309
2013-148215.424.37813.88910.489

(dCorsi numbers from @Mimicohero)

Positives

Kopitar plays spectacular two-way hockey and is an enormous reason why the Kings are the league's best team at controlling at the puck. He finished 2nd among all NHL forwards in raw Corsi and 20th in Corsi relative (it's probably more difficult to post a high Corsi relative on a good puck possession team). Every Kings forward who played at least 50 minutes with Kopitar posted better possession numbers with him than without him, usually by a big margin. Kopitar accomplished this despite receiving slightly negative zone starts (-3.47% ZS rel) and playing the toughest competition on the team.

Kopitar's strong Corsi numbers come in almost equal part from shot generation and shot suppression. Kopitar was on the ice for the 6th highest rate of Corsis for among all NHLers and the 15th lowest rate of Corsis against. In other words, he excels at both offense and defense. He was also the best King at controlled entries.

Kopitar was productive at even strength, leading the Kings with 1.95 5v5 pts/60. The Kings shot a rather average 8.05% with Kopitar on the ice at even strength - but then again, Kopitar's career on-ice 5v5 sh% is just 8.25%. It may be that Kopitar does not have the ability to drive on-ice shooting percentage as much as other centers like Toews, Sedin, or Getzlaf. Still, the sheer volume of shots generated makes him an effective offensive player. Kopitar had a rather fortunate individual shooting percentage, so expect his goal total to drop a bit next year, but that should be made up for by a rise in assists.

Kopitar was highly effective on the power play. He logged the second most 5v4 time on the Kings (behind Drew Doughty). The power play was average at Fenwick generation overall (11th in the NHL), but the real story is that they were great with Kopitar on the ice at 5v4 (80.94 Fenwicks/60, which would be 4th this year) and terrible without him (61.27 Fenwicks/60, which would be 27th). Single-year special teams samples are inevitable tiny and subject to lots of random variation, but Kopitar did have a similar (albeit less dramatic) impact in 2012-13.

Negatives

The most common criticism of Kopitar is probably that he doesn't shoot enough. But I'm not sure this is a real problem. At even strength Kopitar put up 7.18 shots/60, a slightly above average rate among NHL forwards and 7th among Kings forwards. It is a little unfortunate that Kopitar generates shots at a lower rate than, say, Trevor Lewis. But that shot rate is typical for a playmaking center, not far off from Toews (7.52), Crosby (7.96), Datsyuk (7.19) or Getzlaf (7.26). And Kopitar's linemates put up huge shot totals. Carter spending 400 5v5 minutes with Kopitar this year is a huge reason why Carter's shot rate rebounded to elite levels.

Kopitar obviously has a much better wrist shot than, say, Dustin Brown or Justin Williams, so I understand why people want Kopitar to shoot more even if it means his linemates shoot less. But as shown above, his shot rate isn't that low. His current approach is working well, in that the Kings get the vast majority of shots and goals when he's on the ice. I'm not sure a change is called for.

The other complaint is that Kopitar has a tendency to lapse into prolonged scoring slumps. First, the frequency of these slumps is very much overstated. Second, all elite scorers are inevitably streaky - that's the nature of probability. Third, as an elite playmaker and defensive forward, Kopitar helps his team even when he doesn't score, more than just about anybody else in the NHL can. This line of criticism is misguided.

So yeah, I couldn't find any real negatives about Kopitar after all. Oh well.

Highlight

What a ridiculous shot. Unfortunately for the Sharks, it wouldn't even make the top three of "most crushing Kopitar goals against San Jose this year."

Roman Emperor Comparable: Trajan

I previously claimed that Augustus was the best Roman emperor, but many actual Romans would have preferred the emperor Trajan (ruled 98-117), whose military achievements left contemporaries in awe. Unfortunately Trajan's reign is not very well documented, but he seems to have been considerate to his subjects - allowing freedom of expression and refusing to persecute religious minorities, for example. As a military commander he led the last great expansion of the Roman Empire, annexing the vast new provinces of Dacia (106), Armenia (114), and Mesopotamia (116). His Eastern conquests proved ungovernable, and shortly after Trajan died in 117 his successor Hadrian withdrew to Rome's traditional Eastern border.

Trajan, born in Spain, was the first emperor from the empire's provinces. At the time of his accession, many conservative Italians refused to believe a provincial could possibly be up to the task of ruling the empire. But his glorious triumphs shattered these doubts. His reputation was such that emperors after him were sworn in with the ceremonial phrase felicior Augusto melior Traiano ("may he be luckier than Augustus and better than Trajan.")

Kopitar has also battled stigma stemming from his place of birth. He fell to 11th overall in large part because many NHL executives did not think Slovenia was a legitimate source of NHL talent. Like Trajan, Kopitar proved the doubters so, so wrong.

Going Forward

Kopitar will be LA's first line center for two more years at a bargain cap hit of $6.8 million. He will then get awfully expensive.

Grade

Kopitar gets an A for being one of the very best players in the NHL. You guys gave him a B last year. Don't… don't do that again.

Poll
Grade Anze Kopitar's season.

  116 votes |Results

Summer Game Nights: DAY-JAR-DINS!

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Habs Eyes On The Prize Summer Game sNight continues with a viewing of Game 2 of the 1993 Stanley Cup Finals. Montreal Canadiens VS Los Angeles Kings.

Welcome back to Summer Game Nights! The mob has spoken and we're going to be watching Game 2 of the 1993 Cup Finals. Yes the infamous game in which Marty McSorley deplorably uses an illegal stick and gets called out for it at the worst possible time for his team. A lot of other awesome stuff happened too, so tune in and join in on the conversation by leaving comments here or tweeting us at @EOTPGameNight.

Tune in at 7:00PM EST for one of the greatest games every played, and the last time the ghosts of the old Forum shaped the destiny of the NHL.

Patrick Roy vs Wayne Gretzky, I mean come on, what else do you need to know?


Sabres Links: Pegula bids $1.3 billion, Golisano still a player, Subban and Habs $3 million apart

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Yesterday we knew Pegula had made an enormous bid, now we know that he is one of three bidders and his initial bid is higher than the Toronto groups. In more hockey related news, Subban and Montreal are still trying to come to put together a long-term deal.

Sabres Links

  • Terry Pegula is one of three bidders for the Bills, with the other two being Jon Bon Jovi's Toronto led group and Donald Trump. Although he hasn't submitted a bid, former Sabres owner Tom Golisano may still enter last minute [Buffalo News]
  • If reports of Pegula's bid are true, the Toronto group cannot match it with Bon Jovi staying as the majority owner according to John Kryk [Kryk Slants]

Around The League

Anatomy of an Overtime Goal: Game 7 (WCF), Alec Martinez

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A fortuitous overtime goal set the Kings up for their second Cup in three years. Two months later, a look back.

The concluding game of the Western Conference Finals brought an end to one of the most entertaining playoff series in recent memory. Two months later, it seems that the prevailing memory of that Game 7 is of two heavyweights exchanging punches and going back and forth until an overtime goal finally settled things. It's easy to forget how odd Game 7 was in comparison to the prior six, though; the sheer number of crazy bounces in this one made it both highly unpredictable and highly nerve-wracking.

But after Jonathan Toews, Justin Williams, Patrick Sharp, and Tyler Toffoli all got the benefit of strange deflections, there was one more twist. That's not to say that Alec Martinez's goal was purely due to a weird bounce, though; we can start earlier and see how the Los Angeles Kings were able to set up their overtime winner. It starts with Matt Greene picking up the puck at his own goal line and passing ahead to Justin Williams.

The replays didn't go back far enough to focus on the move Williams pulls off here. It's a good one, though...

Amart_jw_large

... and it allows Williams to gain some room in the neutral zone.

Amart1_medium

Nick Leddy is now facing Williams, and rather than try to hip check Williams before he can get to the blue line, he backs off and tries to block him off once he gets into the offensive zone. Williams flips the puck in deep before he makes contact with Leddy.

Amart2_medium

It's not exactly a bad play by Leddy, but it creates two problems. The first: Jarret Stoll is able to stay onside without slowing down, and he's able to catch up with a flat-footed Marcus Kruger. The second: rather than going to the outside, Williams gets inside position, and a surprised Leddy drops his stick. When the puck gets to the boards, Stoll gets there as Kruger does, and the puck is loose.

Amart2_1_medium

Williams has gotten past Leddy, and he grabs the puck while Leddy goes back for his stick. The Chicago Blackhawks aren't in huge trouble, but Williams now has the freedom to move around the net and choose his play.

Amart4_medium

With all five Chicago players surrounding Corey Crawford, Williams chooses the safe play and feeds Alec Martinez, who you can juuuuust barely see in the above frame. The Chicago defenders haven't really seen him either.

Amart5_medium

Now, everyone turns their attention to Martinez. The defense has had enough time to get themselves into decent position, and Leddy is now sitting behind Tyler Toffoli in the slot. The responsibility of blocking the shot falls to Ben Smith, and given that he (aside from Kruger) was Chicago's top shot-blocking forward this season, Martinez has to think about the shot. He does take a moment, stickhandling once before flipping a wrist shot to the net.

Amart6_medium

Martinez's shot has enough elevation to get past Smith, and it flutters toward Crawford. The Kings' traffic isn't great, but both Toffoli and Stoll (right next to Crawford) attempt to get their sticks on the puck. It turned out that neither of them needed to, because Leddy's arm ended up providing the key deflection. It took a nice play from Williams and a good forecheck to set up the Martinez shot, but sometimes, it's just a bounce that makes the difference.

"KINGS WIN THE GAAAAAAME!"


2014 Season Review: Trevor Lewis

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Trevor Lewis Corsi, 2010-2014

GPCorsi RelativeCorsi OnExpected CorsidCorsi
2010-1172-6-0.970.307-0.661
2011-1272-7.65.178.158-2.812
2012-1348-6.58.0110.383-2.412
2013-1473-13.45.2911.914-5.272

(dCorsi numbers from @Mimicohero)

Positives

Lewis was a useful penalty killer this year. His 136 5v4 minutes were third among Kings forwards. In those minutes he allowed low rates of shots against relative to his team. He made a similar impact in 2011-12 and 2012-13; this is a real strength of his game, something he's done well at year after year. His speed and energy seem particularly useful in disrupting opposing entries.

Lewis had a +18 penalty differential this year, the best of any King. He's unlikely to get close to that again next year, but he has consistently been positive in this area over his career. That's very neat for a bottom six forward, and contrasts favorably with teammates like Kyle Clifford (-15 last year).

Negatives

Lewis was really, really bad at offense last year. The median NHL fourth liner puts up 1.04 pts/60 at 5v5. 371 NHL forwards played at least 400 5v5 minutes last year; Trevor Lewis' .61 pts/60 ranked 362nd among these. That's terrible. He's at .86 pts/60 for his career, an incredibly low rate that's in the same territory as goons like Jody Shelley (.77), Patrick Kaleta (.97), and Todd Fedoruk (.88).

His big problem is an abysmal on-ice shooting percentage. Over the last 4 years, here are the 10 lowest forwards by 5v5 on-ice sh% (league average is a little under 8 percent):


10 Lowest On-Ice Sh%s, 2010-2014

TOI5v5 On-Ice Sh%
Rod Pelley11304.13%
Matt Ellis11254.37%
George Parros11414.46%
Tom Wandell15614.61%
Trevor Lewis28304.86%
Tim Jackman19434.93%
Ryan Carter23484.93%
David Steckel18095.05%
Patrick Kaleta14815.08%
Scott Nichol12665.15%

Yikes. That is not good company. If you set the minimum TOI to 2000 minutes instead of 1000, Trevor Lewis is dead last in the NHL over the last four years. One recurring theme of hockey analytics is that on-ice percentages are subject to enormous random variation over small samples, but Trevor Lewis is past that point. While there is probably still some bad luck involved, and his percentages will likely regress to the mean a bit, he is clearly way below average in this respect.

In addition to not scoring at all, Lewis also struggled greatly at puck possession. It's a bit harder to post a good Corsi relative on a team like the Kings but a -5.0% is very poor. That's the worst figure of any Kings forward. This isn't a deployment thing; his zone starts and quality of competition were average relative to the team. Lewis does suffer from spending very little time with top forwards, which is why dCorsi likes him a little bit more than Corsi relative, although neither likes him very much. He did have some success in 143 minutes with Mike Richards this year (56.2% Corsi) but struggled mightily in 201 minutes with Stoll (49.6% Corsi). Overall, most Kings forwards tended to do better without him than with him.

Lewis' zone entries numbers are a mixed bag. His 23.23 entries/60 is good (3rd among Kings forwards, showing an involved player) but his 42.48% carry-in rate is very low, although it is better than fellow fourth liners Clifford (33.85%) and Nolan (40.28%). Lewis is probably not a great passer or receiver of passes, but he has the speed to be decent at entries; perhaps he should attempt to carry the puck in more.

Highlight

This fantastic video courtesy of @thxbud. Also, this gif of Trevor Lewis reacting to the end of his goalless streak is the best thing in the history of ever.

Roman Emperor Comparable: Macrinus

Macrinus (ruled 217-218) was a lawyer and administrator who worked for, and eventually murdered, the emperor Caracalla. Macrinus didn't have much of a choice about this; Caracalla was a brutal monster and probably intended to execute Macrinus soon, so Macrinus got to him first and spared the world of a tyrant. Claiming the throne on Caracalla's death, Macrinus was left to clean up his predecessor's mess. The task proved too much.

Caracalla had provoked wars in Parthia and along the Danube, which were not at all resolved at his death. Macrinus got out of these entanglements by bribing Rome's enemies to go away. That was just the start of the problems; Caracalla had raised soldier pay to ludicrous heights, bankrupting the empire in the process (since Caracalla had justly earned the hatred of the entire civilian population, he was forced to do this in order to secure his own rule). Macrinus tried to scale back soldier pay so the finances would work, but the optics of paying the soldiers less while handing out cash to foreigners proved unworkable. The legions mutinied and deposed Macrinus after about a year.

Macrinus' decisions were basically well-intentioned, so you feel a bit sorry that everything blew up in his face. Ultimately, his political instincts were just not good enough. I have similar thoughts about Trevor Lewis; I like the guy, he probably tries hard, I'd love to see him succeed, but this isn't heading in a good direction.

Going Forward

Lewis will turn 28 in the middle of next season. He is past the point of his career when we can reasonably expect a lot of growth. He is signed for two more years at $1.525 million, so he'll be a regular on the bottom six of some good Kings teams. But I don't think he will be much of the reason those teams are good.

Grade

Lewis' penalty killing and penalty drawing are both nice, but his results at even strength this season were just terrible. In both possession and scoring, he basically posted the 5v5 on-ice results of a goon. I can't give that anything better than a D.

Poll
Grade Trevor Lewis' Season.

  50 votes |Results

Busy July has Florida Panthers primed for regular season

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Cats add much-needed veteran help, while holding on to a lot their own.

It's been a busy thirty-plus days for the Florida Panthers and general manager Dale Tallon. Tallon has done a lot, if not all, of the heavy lifting necessary to have the Cats' roster ready for training camp, as the team looks to climb out of the NHL cellar and hopefully challenge for a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs this season.

The Panthers began their remake with a bang, forgoing all possible trade offers to select Barrie Colts defenseman Aaron Ekblad with the first overall pick at the Entry Draft in Philadelphia on June 27. The next day, the Cats added forwards Jayce Hawryluk, Juho Lammikko, Joe Wegwerth, and Miguel Fidler, as well as towering Swedish goaltender Hugo Fagerblom in the final round. Only Ekblad is expected to make an immediate impact with the team, while the others will need to marinate longer, some much longer, before they are ready to challenge for a spot on the big club.

Before the calendar flipped from June to July, Tallon made what had to be a tough decision, buying out the final year of captain Ed Jovanovski's contract. The move freed up an additional $4.125 million of cap space, as the club geared up for the league's annual free agent frenzy.

On July 1, the Panthers hit the free-agent market hard, adding a whopping $60.4 million in future payroll. The biggest signing from a dollars standpoint was center Dave Bolland's polarizing 5-year, $27.5 million deal. The best hockey move, in my opinion, was the addition of Jussi Jokinen, who was signed to a more appropriate 4-year, $16 million contract. Jokinen should figure prominently in the team's top-six next season and be one of the Cats' leading scorers. The Panthers also added veteran forwards Derek MacKenzie and two-time Cup winner Shawn Thornton to bolster the fourth line. 37-year-old Willie Mitchell was inked for two years to provide a much-needed veteran presence on the blue line. Mitchell may be getting up there in age, but there is still tread on those tires, as he was good enough to contribute on both of the Los Angeles Kings' Stanley Cup winning teams over the past three seasons. Goaltender Al Montoya was also signed, giving the Cats another option in net behind Roberto Luongo. Montoya will battle Dan Ellis, who came over at the trade deadline in the Tim Thomas trade and struggled mightily, for the right to back up Brother Louie.

Th next task facing Tallon was to lock up the club's long list of talented young restricted free-agents. The veteran GM went through the seven-man list like a buzz saw, re-upping Erik Gudbranson, Dylan Olsen, and Brandon Pirri as well as probable minor-leaguers Ryan Martindale and Garrett Wilson, in short order. Days later, despite some expecting this one to be a bit of a tough nut to crack, Dmitry Kulikov was back in the fold. Jimmy Hayes was the only RFA to elect arbitration, but Tallon got him re-signed right before the two sides went to court. Mission accomplished.

The last piece of the offseason puzzle for the Panthers will likely be inking Ekblad to his entry-level contract, if he indeed looks ready for NHL duty during training camp. The Cats do have just over $5.5 million of cap space if they want to make any more signings or trades. There have been rumors that Tallon would be willing to shed a prospect or two for more scoring help, so keep an eye on that as the summer drags on. For now, the roster looks not only set, but considerably deeper and more difficult to play against, with a solid mixture of veterans and up-and-coming youth. And let's not forget, in addition to the NHL roster reshaping and a few additional signings geared towards the AHL Rampage, the Panthers also added new head Gerard Gallant and assistants Mark Morris and Mike Kelly. Whew!, that's a lot of work over the last month or so. Dale, you've done a man's job sir.

Poll
The Panthers' offseason moves have you?

  128 votes |Results

Another Kings Stadium Series Game?

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According to Ticketmaster, the Kings might be playing their second Stadium Series game in two years this February.

According to Puck Daddy, Ticketmaster.com possibly spilled the beans on an upcoming game between the Kings and the San Jose Sharks this February. Although a game between the two is scheduled to take place on February 21, 2015 at 7pm (10pm EST) on both NBCSN and Hockey Night in Canada, the game may not be taking place at SAP Center in San Jose like the schedule says.

Yesterday, Ticketmaster was selling tickets to a 2015 Coors Light NHL Stadium Series game between the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks on February 21, 2015 in Santa Clara, California at the sparkling new Levi's Stadium. Levi's Stadium is the new home to the NFL's San Francisco 49ers and debuted last night in an MLS match between the San Jose Earthquakes and Seattle Sounders.

The page was up for about three hours according to the Puck Daddy report, but there is other evidence that the Ticketmaster error may be accidentally revealing a legitimate event. Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area reported back on June 2 that the Sharks are "expected to host an outdoor game in the Bay Area next season" and lists Levi's Stadium as one of two options for the event.

Although the NHL had four Stadium Series games last season - one of which included the Kings in a 3-0 loss to the Ducks at Dodgers Stadium - the NHL has only announced one outdoor game for the 2014-15 season: the Winter Classic between the Washington Capitals and Chicago Blackhawks in Washington, DC. If there is an unannounced upcoming Stadium Series event, this seems very likely to be part of it. The Kings make sense as an opponent for the Sharks in an outdoor game as the NHL clearly loves the rivalry - all five games between the teams in the upcoming season were already scheduled to be aired nationally in the United States.

Perhaps in an unintended preview last night, there was a Hertl t-shirt front and center during the NBCSN broadcast of the MLS game at Levi's Stadium last night. Let's hope to see it filled with lots of Kings jerseys in six months.

Change at assistant coach; J.T. Miller's role; Marc Staal's contract talks

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Today's New York Rangers notes.

The calendar flipped to a new month, meaning we're closer(!) to some actual hockey. While it didn't make the notes, Rangers goalie prospect and 2014 second round draft pick Brandon Halverson is at Lake Placid with USA Hockey for their evaluation camp. Halverson was the winning goalie in Team USA's 2-1 win Sunday in a game over Finland, stopping all eight shots he saw in just over 30 minutes of work. Probably the only physical hockey related thing to keep your eye on right now. Here are your morning notes.

While the Rangers have been putting most of their efforts toward re-upping its group of restricted free agents. And while Marc Staal is also on the to-do list when it comes to new a contract, those talks have been delayed. [NY Post]

While Alain Vigneault expected to get his full staff back for the upcoming season, Dan Lacriox was poached by the Canadiens, and will be headed to Montreal next season. [Blueshirts Blog] [Ranger Rants]

And with that vacancy created by Lacriox leaving, the Rangers are expecting to hire Darryl Williams. [Blueshirt Banter]

There comes a time in a young player's career when he needs professional reps to continue to develop. For J.T. Miller, that time is now. [Blueshirt Banter]

New York native and Los Angeles Kings captain Dustin Brown was delivered a package with a special message from a FedEx worker. So Brown took to Twitter to respond. [NY Post]

Monday Open Bar - Joel Hodgson's Sick Flow

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It's a Monday in the offseason, which means not a whole lot of anything is going on. So click a few things and watch 10 minutes of Joel Hodgson staggering through the early days of MST3K with some awesome hair.

Who's Dave Roush? Anyone know? Is he one of ours?

  • I ask, because he's the one who did Puck Daddy's Summer of Disappointment post for the Blues, which went up yesterday. I guess he did okay, but give this to someone like J-Mill and I think we would've had a winner. [Puck Daddy]
  • Someone went around adding this link to a shit-ton of SBN hockey blogs, and we happen to be one of them. NHL Trade Value Rankings. Piggybacking off Bill Simmons, basically. [SLGT FanPosts]
  • Good work, TicketBastard. They gave an unintentional spoiler alert on the supposed outdoor game between the Kings and Sharks in the Bay Area. [Puck Daddy]
  • So it appears Stephane Quintal's tenure as NHL Department of Player Safety head is truly interim. Reports have surfaced that former Maple Leafs assistant GM Claude Loiselle--ironically, relieved of said duties by . . . Brendan Shanahan!--will be brought on to run the DoPS. Interesting. [CBS Sports Eye on Hockey]
  • Only 64 more worthless preseason games until the NFL's regular season begins! [SB Nation]
  • TEENAGER LOGIC: "We broke into a dude's house! Let's make pot brownies!" "Yeah! Good idea!" [Y! / AP]
  • Fucking NCAA, man. Fuck them all. [Deadspin]
  • VIDEO: The earliest, EARLIEST days of Mystery Science Theater 3000 featured a much younger Joel Hodgson, who at the time couldn't act his way out of a wet paper sack, and crude-looking forms of his robot pals. And some sick flow from Joel! Check it out:

Hey Joel, the 80's called. They want their hair back. Oh wait.

Anyway, if you want to see more MST3K clips (FULL SHOWS, EVEN!), go here.

Send me links, videos and other shit:

And pretty much every Monday for the rest of the offseason will be an open bar. Unless, y'know, something interesting happens.

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