Hitting free agency after being amnestied, Brad Richards inked with a contender in Chicago.

Brad Richards' Rangers tenure came to an end based on a horrid contract. While Richards was still a productive player for New York, scoring 20 goals last season, he was slated to make $24 million over the next three years, with another six years total on his deal, a number Glen Sather and New York couldn't afford sitting to close to the cap ceiling.

So after hitting free agency following a buyout, the Blackhawks have come to terms with the veteran center, who can still be a difference-maker in the NHL.

1 year, $2 mil for Brad Richards to Chicago.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 1, 2014

Chicago continued the trend of teams bulking up at the center position, as the Blackhawks were already strong down the middle with Jonathan Toews as their man in the middle. It's not clear where Richards will slot in—he finished his time in New York on the Rangers second line, before getting demoted to the fourth during the Stanley Cup Final.

The Blackhawks learned how important center depth is when they were eliminated by the Kings in the 2014 Western Conference Final. With Los Angeles rolling out Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, and Jarret Stoll, many teams have attempted to follow suit and stack their rosters at the center position. Anaheim added Ryan Kesler to compliment Ryan Getzlaf. The Stars similarly acquired Jason Spezza to play behind Tyler Seguin.

37 year-old two-time Stanley Cup champion inks two-year deal with Cats

In what is likely the last move by the Panthers on this first day of the 2014 free agent signing period, the team inked UFA defenseman Willie Mitchell to a two-year deal worth $8.5 million ($4.25M per year). Mitchell played more than 20 minutes per game for the league champion Los Angeles Kings last season, after spending 2012-13 recovering from injury. He is 6'3" and 210 lbs, shoots left handed, and makes the front of the net a very unpleasant place for opposing forwards.

Mitchell is in no way an offensively-gifted blueliner, but he was an important part of the Kings Cup run just weeks ago. Drafted in 1996, he's logged 795 NHL games, as well as 89 playoff appearances. He is not a fast skater, but uses his size and experience well. Most importantly for the Panthers, Mitchell brings a pair of Stanley Cup wins and the attendant experience earned with them to help in educating a very young Panthers backend.

• Some thoughts from the Kings camp on Florida's newest defenseman
• Career statisticsvia HockeyDB.com
• For the advanced statistics crowd via ExtraSkater.com

Finally, Roberto Luongo apparently was a big proponent of this signing:

Coming around on Mitchell deal. 2 Cups, good mentor for youth. Evidently Luongo's 1st choice given history, per team source. #FlaPanthers

— Donny Rivette (@LitterBoxCats) July 1, 2014

While Mitchell turned 37 in April, even the pundits at TSN, not normally the biggest fans of the Cats' free agent moves, allowed that Mitchell will eat minutes and train the youngsters well. Nothing spectacular here, but very solid.

Just what did the Tampa Bay Lightning get by signing Anton Stralman and Brian Boyle? Mike Murphy from Blueshirt Banter gives you an idea.


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[Editor's Note:  Mike Murphy is a regular contributor at SB Nation's New York Rangers blog, Blueshirt Banter.  While I requested a quote or two about Anton Stralman, he gave us this full article instead. Thanks, Digger!. -- JF]

Anton Stralman

If I had to sum up Anton Stralman and his style of play in a single word, I would use the word "smart". Stralman, as many of you already know, is a fancy stats and possession numbers darling. He excels playing against tough competition and dominates against poor competition. It's hard to believe that before signing with the Rangers as a free agent in November of 2011 Stralman didn't receive a contract from the Devils after participating in their training camp that season. Think about that for a second. He went from not being good enough for the Devils in 2011, a team that lost to the Kings in the Stanley Cup Final, to playing big minutes on the second defensive pair of the Rangers in 2014, a team that lost to the Kings in the Stanley Cup Final. That's a curious career path for a guy that has just landed on a Tampa team that is headed in the right direction.

In the three seasons that Stralman has been a Ranger, he has gone from a "solid pick mid-season pick up" to a guy who absolutely solidified the Rangers blue line. You won't find Stralman's real value on your standard stat sheet. He doesn't pick up many points despite making good decisions with the puck. His real value is revealed after a close inspection of his fancy stats, coming to realize how infrequent his mistakes are, and when you consider the fact that he's a right-handed defenseman that has been undervalued and underused throughout his career. Perhaps Stralman benefited from the Rangers system and from playing alongside some noteworthy d-men. Or, perhaps, Stralman was one of the guys that made the Rangers' defense what it has been the past few seasons and made his defensive partners look better than they actually were (psst, it's the latter).

Stralman is everything you could want in a defenseman; he's a smooth skater, he has had no serious injury issues, he's competent with the puck, he can take the body, he can get the puck to the net when given the opportunity (although he really shouldn't be considered a power play guy), and he's still just 27 years old. You guys signed Stralman to play his prime years in Tampa after he just picked up boatloads of playoff experience and you got him for the same price as the soon to be 38 year-old player the Rangers signed to replace him (although the Rangers did sign Dan Boyle to a shorter term). I think it is pretty safe to say you made Glen Sather look very silly. Well, you had some help with your peculiar little "thing" about income tax... but we'll try not to hold that against you. There's a chance that the Anton Stralman signing could be the best signing of this offseason, especially when you look at the kind of money that guys like Matt Niskanen, Brooks Orpik, and Deryk Engelland got. Only time will tell right now, but in regards to defensemen, the two best signings on July 1^st, in my opinion, were the Stralman and Christian Ehrhoff signings.

Soon enough you'll come to appreciate Stralman in the way that Rangers have come to appreciate him. Not for the things that he does amazingly well, but for the very few things he does poorly. Perhaps the pressure will be on the Swedish blueliner now that he finally has that big contract to play up to, but I doubt Stralman will crack under pressure. Stralman is calm, smart, and solid. And we're going to miss him in New York. Big time.

Brian Boyle

Right off the bat you shouldn't expect Brian Boyle to score 20 goals again (it was the flukiest fluke season ever), and don't expect him to win fights just because he's the size of a small redwood. What you should expect out of Brian Boyle is a superb role player in your bottom six that won't take any shifts off and will give his team a chance to win every night by eating up defensive zone faceoffs and killing penalties with aplomb. A quick glance at his zone start stats will tell you that Boyle is a guy to use when you need the puck out of your zone or a faceoff to be won. Boyle is an above average faceoff man. Last season he was second only to faceoff wizard Dominic Moore on the Rangers in regards to faceoff winning percentage.

Although he won't win many of the fights he is in (which is not a big deal because fights don't win hockey games), Boyle is a very physical player. He's going to take the body. A lot. You should get used to it. Early in his career and in his first season with the Rangers his skating was a big issue that severely limited his role and use with the team. Boyle, in the blue-collar spirit that he seems to embody, worked on that deficit in his game and has become the Boyle you guys knew as a New York Ranger; a big guy that moves well for his size and hits everything and anything in his path. Boyle will block shots, defend his teammates, chip in about 8-10 goals, forecheck like frisky cat, and will give his team a chance to win every night.

There was some talk about him really wanting a top-nine role with whatever team he signed with so it should be interesting to see how Tampa Bay uses Boyle, but he will (and should) never be a guy you look to for offense. He's a defensive specialist who isn't blessed with very good hands. But you shouldn't let his lack of puck luck and goal scoring take away from his real value. Boyle is an exceptionally good role player that will add real depth to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

One of my close associates, Dwight King who will remain unnamed, gained access to the Kings' player discussions over the last several years and shared it with me. Let's take a look!

Recently you may have read that the Houston Astros had their internal trade discussions leaked to an anonymous hacker. Well, I have good news everyone! I was able to gain access to the internal discussions of our very own Los Angeles Kings. Boy, this stuff is really valuable insight into the inner-workings of a finely-tuned hockey machine.

One of the first things Dean Lombardi did as GM of the Kings was direct the 2006 NHL entry draft. Below we have an exchange between then director of amateur scouting Al Murray and his new boss about this critical moment in the team's history:

APR 30, 2006

DL: Alright Al, gimme the rundown here. This is a big moment for our franchise. I've just been given what seems like an insurmountable task. I have to clean up the complete disaster left behind by Dave Taylor and all I've got is, fuckin, Mike Cammalleri and some Slovakian center guy. This is crap. We need to fix this. Do we know any offensive talents that will be available with our first pick?

AM: Well, actually, my suggestion is gonna not be offense at all. I think this usually goes pretty well, historically speaking, so let's take a goalie first, okay? I'm a big believe in Jonathan Bernier. He's great. As for our second pick, okay, a forward would be good. I agree. Our cupboards are pretty bare, though I think this Petr Kanko guy is really good. He had like 60 points this year. THat's pretty good. Anyway, I'm a huge beleiver in Trevor Lewis. Not one forward in the draft has hands like him.

DL: What about Claude Giroux? My old team, the Flyers, seemed to really like him. TSN has him ranked behind Lewis but he seems excellent.

AM: No. Hands of stone. Pass on him. Trevor Lewis is your guy. This guy's gonna pile up points in the NHL.

Petr Kanko had 27 points that year. Claude Giroux was taken five picks after Trevor Lewis. Al Murray was fired the following January.

Things didn't get interesting for the Kings until 2008. This was the year they drafted a pair of defenders in the first round. Below I'll attach a conversation between Lombardi, new director of amateur scouting Michael Futa, and new assistant GM Ron Hextall.

JUN 12, 2008

DL: Alright. Here we are again. We have the second pick in the draft. This is a huge moment for us. We need an impact player. Pretty clear Steven Stamkos is going first, and it looks like a bunch of defensemen are the next most talented players. What are we looking at?

RH: 3 words. COLTON  TUBERT. TAKE. THAT GUY.

DL: Really? He has like 5 points in his junior career

RH: COLTON

MF: no

RH: TUBERT

DL: Are you even spelling that right? It feels wrong

RH: TUBERT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DL: okay shut up fine jesus christ we'll take him with our second pick

MF: Okay then. Anyway. I really like Drew Doughty. I think he's our guy. He loves the Kings, he's super talented, amazing instincts on the ice.

RH: i like my ASS hahahaha

DL: Alright. Doughty and Teubert.

A productive conversation.

The 2009/10 season was boring too. Not on the ice -- the team was fun there. Off the ice. Boring. No cool trades. Freddy Modin, are you joking? What the hell. The best quote about that deadline was from Ron Hextall: "i think jeff haplern puts us over the top. get him. were golden." Good call Ron. You were so close.

The 2010 draft was also boring. Michael Futa advocated for Derek Forbort, whom Lombardi ended up selecting. Surprisingly, Ron Hextall was all about Vladimir Tarasenko. Though it's possible that he just liked saying the name Vladimir Tarasenko, as these emails are just littered with him spelling out that name and talking about how fun it is to say.

After an unfortunate end to the 2011 season, in which the Kings were inexplicably incapable of erasing a 3-1 series deficit against the Sharks, things got interesting. Dean Lombardi and Paul Holmgren had the following exchange heading toward summer:

May 27th, 2011 from thearchitect@lakings.com:

Hey Paul, this is your old friend Dean. How you been?! Long time no talk. Anyway, hey listen... I just was thinking about how it really seems like Mike Richards is holding your team back. Get back to me soon? Thanks!

June 2nd, 2011 from holmboy69@flyera.com:

Fuck you.

June 3rd, 2011 from holmboy69@flyera.com:

Sorry that was for Ed Snider

June 4th, 2011 from holmboy69@flyera.com:

Fuck what were you talkign about. Oh. Yeah. I agree. Gimme. Uh. A young player and. A young player I think. Yeah. DO that. Two young players. WHo you got/

June 19th 2011 from thearchitect@lakings.com

[REDACTED: 50 page explanation for why this is a great deal] How do Schenn and Simmonds sound to you?

After a rough go of things to start the 2011/12 season, Dean Lombardi was forced to fire then head coach Terry Murray.

DEC 21, 2011

DL: Alright Terry. You're a great man. I hate to do this to you. Especially - for some reason - over IM, but you're fired.

TM: Okay.

DL: That... That's it?

This may surprise you, but I have no record of computer interaction between Darryl Sutter and Dean Lombardi. Lombardi mentioned something about carrier pigeons and smoke signals in an exchange with special assistant Jack Ferreira, but we'll leave that be.

A few months after firing Murray, the Kings were still searching for offense, so Lombardi and Hextall reached out to Columbus general manager Scott Howson.

FEB 22, 2012

DL: Hey Scott, you around?

SH: Hell yeah. Lets do some fucking TRADES

RH: YEAH!!!!!!!

DL: Uh. Okay. We really need some goal-scoring.

SH: hang on. i have just the guy. you're gonna loaeve him. JEFF CARTER

DL: Yeah. That's what we were gonna suggest.

SH: we really need some fucking DEFENSE. somehow JAMES GODDAMN WISNINSKI DIDNT SAVE OUR ASSES. FUCK.

DL: Well we have some defensive depth

SH: I want Jack Johnson. NOW.

[Dean Lombardi and Ron Hextall enter a private conversation]

DL: IS HE SERIOUS?

RH: lmao i dont even know whats happening. i didnt know we could trade singers or albums or whatever. whose jeff carter? is his old stuff good?

[private conversation ends]

DL: Okay. Jack Johnson and a 1st sound good?

SH: HAHAHAHA SUCKER!

Somehow Scott Howson stuck around for almost a full year after this trade.

The Kings went on to win the cup, and were poised for another deep run in 2013. However, the front office felt as if they needed another defenseman to put them over the top:

MAR 28, 2013

DL: Okay Ron, we really need another defenseman here. Who ya got?

RH: DERIAN HATCHER

DL: I think he might be dead.

RH: SHIT

DL: Hang on, lemme get my binoculars and see if Darryl has any input

[Dean looks down at Darryl on the bench, who heads over to the boards and breathes on the glass. He then draws "Robyn Regehr" into his breath]

DL: Any thoughts on Robyn Regehr, Ron?

RH:

RH:

RH:

[Ron Hextall left to go play with his hot wheels]

The Kings wound up trading two second-round picks for Robyn Regehr, a nearly catastrophic move. This was the last time the Kings relied on Darryl Sutter or Ron Hextall for their input. Hextall left for Philadelphia shortly after the end of the Kings' 2013 season. A few days later, Rob Blake was named to be Hextall's replacement. After a quiet off-season, the Kings once again found themselves in search of offense heading into the 2014 trade deadline. In a Rust Cohle, "time is a flat circle" moment, they turned to Columbus again:

MAR 5, 2014

DL: Hey Jarmo, you've done a great job making the Blue Jackets into a legitimate threat. I think we can piece together a mutually beneficial deal here.

JK: LETS DO SOME FUCKING TRADES!!!!!!!!!

DL: We really need some offense and Marian Gaborik is a free agent to be, is there a fit here?

JK: Lmao...Marian? Marian Gaborik? YOU WANT MARIAN GABORIK? Well you're gonna pay a STEEP PRICE FOR HIM, I tell you that much. Jeez. Who do you think I am, Scott Howson? I am definitely not Scott Howson, I tell you that much. Jeez. GEEZ.

DL: Fair enough, fair enough. We're willing to part with a few pieces, I think. We have some good young forwards.

[Dean Lombardi enters "Jarmo Kekalainen" into Google and finds out that it translates to "Scott Howson" in Finnish]

DL: Especially Matt Frattin.

J"SH"K: FUCK YEAH!!!!!!!!!! HOSED YOU AGAIN ASSHOLE!!!

Well there you have it. That's how the magic happens.

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Ducks pick up a veteran goalie to support their rookie tandem.

The Ducks goalie tandem of Frederik Andersen and John Gibson are going have a combined 42 regular season and playoff games between them. The next goalie in the chain is Igor Bobkov, who has never started a game in the NHL. So, the Ducks went out and got a veteran goalie in the form of Jason LaBarbera.

LaBarbera is a bit of a journeyman. He's stopped pucks for the Rangers, Kings, Coyotes and Oilers before coming to ply his trade in Anaheim. Last year in Edmonton, he played in 7 games posting a 3.28 GAA AND .870 SV%. The majority of his games came for the Rockford Icehogs in the AHL where he recorded a 2.94 GAA and .901 SV%. NHL.com didn't have his AHL numbers after 06-07; the AHL numbers in this article are from hockeydb.com

Per Bob Murray's comments from just over a week ago at the Ducks' open house, we should expect to see Gibson and Andersen in the NHL unless someone has a serious step back or an injury.  And so it would appear that the Norfolk Admirals will be working with a tandem of Bobkov and LaBarbera or vice versa.

The cap space. It's gone.

The Dallas Stars added Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky, Anders Lindback, and Patrick Eaves on day one of the July roster movement bonanza. The salary cap situation is quite a bit different this morning. Let's reset and see where we are. We'll start with the forwards.

What I did was use capgeek's armchair GM to pull up the forwards who could potentially be on the roster. I figure it's going to take nine million or so to sign the Stars four main restricted free agents. Maybe Roussel gets less. Maybe Eakin gets more. Maybe both get less and you add more to Brenden Dillon (who we will get to momentarily). No matter what permutation you use the cap number itself isn't going to change much.

There are 17 guys for the 14 roster spots (12 regulars and two scratches).

You may notice that I left the second line left wing spot open. We really don't know who is going to slot in there yet. The most painless solution is to pencil Curtis McKenzie or Brett Ritchie in up there. McKenzie would make more sense. Spezza is a right shot. McKenzie is a natural left winger who shoots left. Ritchie is a right winger who shoots right. The easiest fit is McKenzie.

The Stars could slot Erik Cole there, but given that he only dressed for three of the Stars playoff games and played an average of ten minutes in each I think it's safe to say that isn't going to happen.

If Rich Peverley is going to play he could fit in there too. The same righty/righty issue would be present as with Ritchie though. And I don't know that the Stars can bank on him playing. You hope he does, but you can't count on it. Not with the other moves suggesting a pretty clear "we're trying to win get out of our way" message.

So, that leaves you with two other options keeping in mind that yesterday was only the first day of free agency, and that Nill and his staff have had quite a good deal of time to formulate their plan for the off-season. You either trade for another top six winger or sign one of the available ones.

God only knows the trade market at this point. There are however a few capable free agents still on the board. Radim Vrbata is the most capable goal scoring winger left on the market. Coming off an ugly 7.6 shooting percentage that saw his goal total drop to 20 I think there is a good bet that he could be had for a reasonable salary.

Dustin Penner is another guy who could make a lot of sense. He struggled something fierce after being traded to the Capitals, but prior to the trade he had 32 points in 49 games. Outside of a couple rough years with the Kings he's been a very productive NHLer. He also loves pancakes.

The defense and goaltending are what they are. The only guy missing from the chart is Cameron Gaunce because you can only put so many guys on the charts.

According to Mike Heika the Stars appear to be done with the defense outside of "subtracting Sergei Gonchar".

The Stars interest is in keeping leverage in any situation. They have no reason to divulge any plans whatsoever. The message with the forward acquisitions was "we are good enough to win now...let's go". I'm now supposed to believe that the Stars are comfortable with Alex Goligoski, Trevor Daley, Brenden Dillon, Jordie Benn, and some mixture of three of the rest as the 2015 defensive corps?

You can sell me a lot of things, but this is a tough one.

The writing is on the wall with Gonchar. The Stars at the moment have ten defensemen for the seven slots after Gonchar is removed from consideration. Dillon, Daley, Goligoski, and Benn are locks for the roster unless an unforeseen trade materializes.  Patrick Nemeth would appear to be the leading candidate for one of the two regular spots remaining.

What about Kevin Connauton? He got into 36 games, but Lindy Ruff didn't even remotely trust him. He turned 24 in March and still will need to pass through waivers to go to Austin. He seems like a good bet to be the 7th guy again, but the idea that they would give Connauton a regular role after how little trust Ruff had in him seems questionable at best.

That leaves one open regular spot for Jamie Oleksiak, Jyrki Jokipakka, Cameron Gaunce, and John Klingberg. Gaunce has an uphill battle at this point even without any acquisitions. Oleksiak is the biggest name of the group, but a pretty good argument could be made that of those four he's third in terms of NHL-readiness.

The Stars defense corps needs someone who can competently man a powerplay point. They don't have a right handed defenseman at all currently on the roster. I think what I'm trying to say is that John Klingberg looks to be the leading candidate for the last defensive spot by a landslide. It isn't out of the question that they view Klingberg high enough that Nill's statements about the defense are true.

They may make no more acquisitions, but I would bet heavily on Gonchar being gone at the bare minimum.

If you move Gonchar while retaining 2,500,000 of his cap hit this is essentially the roster you have to work with:

That roster is a no doubt playoff team. It's also just a hair under the salary cap. If the Stars can assume less of the Gonchar money the number grows. If the figures I used for the restricted free agents come in lower the number grows. But the overall point here is that at the moment the cap space is gone for all intents and purposes.

With that being said it isn't hard to see where the Stars could create more. The Stars could still look to move Cole who should have some value. There are a lot of bad teams in the league and his contract really isn't heinous. That could be a maximum of 4,500,000 in extra space that wouldn't really hurt the on ice product.

If Peverley is unable to play the Stars could conceivably create an extra three million in space by putting him on long term IR on the first day after rosters have to be set, but that isn't going to help them now.

Waivers are going to be a big player for the Stars. I kept Scott Glennie and Colton Sceviour on the roster because both players will have to clear waivers to be demoted. Do the Stars want to risk either player at this juncture? Maybe, but it's hard to imagine after they kept Connauton up all last year.

Travis Morin, everyone's favorite reigning AHL MVP, is going to have to pass through again. There simply isn't a spot for him. Does he get claimed? I think there's a chance he does, but it's no guarantee.

On defense, Gaunce will need to pass through waivers again. After this coming season Oleksiak will be waiver eligible. The Stars need Oleksiak to keep progresing steadily so he can earn NHL playing time soon. He's very young, but his time in the AHL is running out. If you're looking for possible trade pieces right now is probably the height of his prospect-y value.

Overall this looks quite a bit nicer than it did in June though, eh? The Stars look to be pretty much done unless they are able to move Gonchar and/or Cole. It definitely shouldn't be ruled out. If they are done it's still a hell of an improvement on just two years ago.

I'm still going to keep my fingers crossed.

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Yesterday was nuts. What's in store today?

The most surprising news from yesterday was probably that Mikhail Grabovksi didn't get picked up by anyone. Seriously? Any team looking for solid center depth can't spare a few million for him? (The team that claimed that they couldn't fit him under cap is the same one that signed Brooks Orpik to a bad contract.)

Kings News

LAKings.com

Kings sign Adam Cracknell and David Van der GulikThe Kings actually did sign two players yesterday! Both are fringe NHLers, though... both have played less than a full season's worth of NHL games over the last 4-5 years.

2014 NHL Free Agency and Trade Tracker Keep up with all the moves every day, all day until training camp opens in September.

LA Kings Insider

KINGS HIRE MIKE STOTHERS TO COACH MANCHESTER With the departure of Mark Morris, the Manchester Monarchs need a new bench boss and have hired the Moose Jaw coach to take over the development of all future prospects.

Mayors Manor

Kings 2014 Development Camp Preview Mostly just a list of who's coming and a few who are probably not going to be at camp.

In Other News

Grantland

Recapping the NHL Draft A snarky look at a few things that transpired over the weekend in Philadelphia.

NHL.com

First day of free agency sees West get even more wild Corey Masisak takes a look at some of the key free agent signings from yesterday, though he still pegs the Kings and Blackhawks to be the top contenders in the conference.

Ottawa Sun

Philadelphia Flyers star Claude Giroux arrested in Ottawa He may have been inebriated and allegedly harassed a police officer. The Puck Daddy version can be found here.

BuffaloSabres.com

RICK JEANNERET STATEMENT In the wake of the news of the Sabres' broadcaster's cancer diagnosis, the team released a statement asking for privacy and to keep him and his family in everyone's thoughts/prayers.

Deadspin

All 16 Of Tim Howard's Saves, In One VideoPer Niesy's request, I'm adding some World Cup news. The USMNT goalkeeper was amazing in the heartbreaking loss to Belgium.

Wall Street Journal

Meme Manufacturing: China Taking Orders for Suarez Bite Bottle Openers This is actually kinda funny.

How does a forward's usage affect his on-ice shooting and save percentage at even strength?

I was having a conversation on twitter with Jesse Marshall (a must follow) about Brandon Sutter, and we were discussing whether Sutter is legitimately great at defense due to his high year-to-year on-ice save percentage. At even strength over the last three years, Brandon Sutter put up an on-ice save percentage of 94.4%, 93.7%, and 93.1%. Those are all really high, so one could plausibly see this and think that Brandon Sutter possesses elite defensive skill.

But if that were so, why is he paid so little? Why are his possession numbers so bad? Why does the eye test make him look so bad? More importantly, why isn't every team lining up to snap him up from us? In addition to these questions, we should always be skeptical of goal-based stats (even over big samples) because it takes such a long time for the signal to separate from the noise.

I got to thinking that part of this might be driven by ice time and competition. Let's first talk about shooting percentage. The forwards who play a lot of minutes are generally really good, and we would expect them to have a higher on-ice shooting percentage because of that. Conversely, we'd expect forwards who don't see a lot of ice time to have a lower on-ice shooting percentage because they're not as talented with the puck. To figure out if this is true, I pulled all the forwards from extra skater who played 62 or more games this year and popped their ice time and on-ice shooting percentage into a scatterplot (please click all images to enlarge them).

There's definitely something there. An R-squared of 0.2 or more is a moderately positive relationship, but I'm inclined to give it more effect here because we can't control for as many things in hockey. So my takeaway is that there's substantial evidence for the claim that players with more ice time generally have higher on-ice shooting percentages.

Now onto save percentage. If top six players only played against other top six players, we'd expect all of them to have a (relatively) low on-ice save percentage. And if bottom six players only faced bottom six guys, they'd all have high on-ice save percentages. The graph below contains the data.

Nothing there. The R-squared is practically zero, which suggests that ice time is not correlated at all with on-ice save percentage. This also makes intuitive sense, since coaches do not exclusively use top six players against top six players and bottom six players against bottom six players. The upshot is that we don't see a league-wide relationship between time on ice and save percentage.

Nevertheless, I wanted to break things down on an individual level. Over the last three years, Brandon Sutter averaged a time on ice QoC% of 28.2% and an on-ice save percentage of 93.7%. That QoC is really low; if you break down the QoC among forwards this year into quintiles, Sutter's QoC puts him in the bottom 20%. Guys who see competition that easy are, by definition, skating against guys who don't see much ice time. We know from above that guys who don't play a lot have a low on-ice shooting percentage, so perhaps at the extreme, guys with very easy competition have high on-ice save percentages.

To figure this out, I went through all of the forwards who played at least half the games in each of the last three seasons and recorded each one who (a) had a time on ice QoC% of 28.2% or below each year (Brandon Sutter's three-year average), and (b) had an on-ice save percentage of 93.7% or higher each year (again, Sutter's three-year average). The list of guys who did this all three years and two of the three years is below.

You'll notice how aggressively unimpressive this group is--there are some real duds there in Ryan Jones, Mike Rupp, and Aaron Volpatti. I also don't even know who Brian Flynn is. And keep in mind, there were equally low-quality hockey players who didn't make the cut because their on-ice save percentage was a tad off. The list would thus be bigger and even more bland if we broadened our parameters just a bit.

But look at those three names who did it all three years. John Mitchell is a decent guy who has bounced around from the Leafs to the Rangers and now to the Avalanche, all on short deals that paid little money. Trevor Lewis has been with the Kings' organization his whole career but has been relegated to short contracts in six figures. And Shawn Thornton is an awful hockey player who assaults people on the ice (note that while we're on the topic of useless enforcers, Sutter's "defensive prowess" is shared by Colton Orr and Cody McLeod, two face-punchers who should not be in this league).

The point? Sutter isn't a unique defensive asset. When you actually look at players who routinely see the light competition he's faced the last three years, a chunk of them have high on-ice save percentages over one, two, or three years. GMs don't invest much term or money into these guys, and both stat heads and casual fans recognize that these players are not very good. If we thought their high on-ice save percentage was a product of innate talent, then GMs would be sitting on a pool of seemingly elite shutdown players who are underpaid and vastly undervalued.

I don't think that's true. When you get into the bottom 20% of players in terms of quality of competition, things change. Their opponents get little ice time because they're offensively challenged, which we see at the left end of the first graph above. The fact that their goals against numbers are good isn't because of their talent but rather their deployment. So if most players can provide "good defense" against weak competition, the key is to get guys who are cheap possession-drivers. Sutter is neither, which means Jim Rutherford needs to find a way to trade Sutter before October 9th.

We've played a full season using hybrid icing in the NHL, and for the most part it has been a success, but is it the final answer?

The 2013-14 NHL Season has been over for 3 weeks now, we've seen the draft come and go, and free agency kicked off with a bang but has sputtered out pretty quickly. Last season was quite the success when you consider the NHL played a full 82-game season and brought with it some dramatic series in the Playoffs. The Wild's game 7 OT win in Denver, the Kings going down 0-3 in their opening series against the Sharks and then turning the tables to win that series in 7 games, and a very emotional ride off into the sunset moment for living legend Teemu Selanne after the Ducks elimination from the 2nd round.

The season also brought with it some rules changes, 1 in particular that would dramatically change how the game was called, Hybrid Icing.

We have now played a full season in the NHL with the Hybrid Icing rule in effect. The rule was changed from the race to the puck fashion we have been used to since it's inception in September 1937, to a race to the faceoff dot judgement call version we saw this season. The reason for this change is obvious, even more obvious if your name is Kurtis Foster.

The rule was changed to mitigate injuries like Foster's. When you have to skaters racing full speed ahead at a wall to touch up an impending icing call, these sorts of injuries are bound to happen. The Hybrid Icing rule has worked. Players no longer racing into the end-boards, we do not see these massive collisions behind the goal-line and injuries like Foster's or concussions seem to have all but eliminated from these icing situation.

But is it perfect?

Not by any means. The hybrid icing rule has done exactly what it was supposed to do, but it still needs work. It's still a race, and it's still a call based on the judgement of the on-ice officials. Rules in any sport are rarely perfect. Balls and strikes in baseball is largely a judgement call, travelling in basketball is virtually non-existent these days, and just ask any NFL coach if he feels the ref gets every coaches challenge call correct.

The issue with judgement calls is the human element. In a game as fast as hockey, the on-ice officials are not always in a position where they can accurately judge who has reached the faceoff dot first. How do we remove the burden of judgement from the officials? Maybe it is time the league takes a stab at a full no-touch or automatic icing.

No-touch icing eliminates all doubt from the situation. As soon as the puck crosses the goal line outside of the goal crease, the play is whistled dead. NHL fans seemed cautious about installing the hybrid icing rule. The way it is setup invites calls to be missed, and although it hasn't cost anyone a game yet, given enough time we will see a blown call lead to game changing goal.

Hybrid icing didn't kill the sport, and we shouldn't expect installing a no-touch icing rule would either. European professional leagues use no-touch icing, the IIHF uses no-touch icing, and so do a few lower-tiered North American leagues like the ECHL*, CHL and SPHL. It may take a dramatic missed call before the NHL considers adjusting the rule again, and maybe it never happens. With hybrid icing you get the best of both worlds but sacrifice getting it right every time. I for one, would rather the officials get it right than worry about a judgement call on a race costing valuable regular-season points or even a playoff game.

*UPDATE: The ECHL has adopted hybrid icing for the start of the 2014-15 season.

There has been much haranguing of the Clayton Stoner signing. While the numbers aren't great, for argument's sake some context is necessary.

You've seen the reactions.

Fans that sang the praises of Anaheim's General Manager of the Year-winning Bob Murray for acquiring Ryan Kesler from Vancouver immediately reverted to criticism.

Wails that the Ducks have signed an 'anchor defenseman' that is surely "Bryan Allen 2.0". Complaints about Corsis, frustrations over Fenwicks, and in general incredulity at the acquisition of defenseman Clayton Stoner.

When the signing was announced on the first day of free agency, a cursory glance at the traditional statistics appears wholly unimpressive. The advanced metrics are more unkind, painting the picture of a player who is generally on ice for more shots against than the team average and compares even less favorably than Allen. While all of these individual numbers taken in a vacuum are true, they weren't compiled in one.

One of the beauties of the sport of hockey is the reliance every player has on their teammates to be a successful unit on the ice. Therein lies the paradox of trying to measure a player based solely on individual metrics- they tell you what the player did, but not the context in which he did it. That in mind, let's examine how Stoner earned those numbers within the Minnesota Wild.

Since Stoner became a fixture in the Wild lineup in 2010-11, Minnesota have finished dead last in shots on goal in three of the four seasons with the only deviation coming in 12-13 when they finished 17th (also the only season in which the team had a positive shot differential). As you'd expect, the team Corsi numbers follow in kind. Though people point to Stoner's multiple seasons with a negative Relative Corsi For (amount of the team's shot attempts while the player is on the ice as opposed off it) percentage (CFr%), it happened on a team that on balance allowed a significant percentage more shots and attempts against.

The comparison to his fellow defenseman over the stretch provides some context. In 11-12 Stoner's 1.1% CFr% was second best amongst Minnesota defenders who appeared in more than half the team's games. Though his -2.8% was worst in the same sample in 12-13, his improvement to -1.3% slotted him fourth overall in that sample ahead of Nate Prosser, Greg Zanon, and wunderkid Jonas Brodin last season. When you look at the team as a whole, Minnesota has only had 11 total playerswith greater than 50% Corsi For numbers that've played at least half the season over the last three years. Stoner is not a top pairing defenseman, evidenced by averaging the team's least ice time per 60 minutes two of the last three seasons, but he's hardly been the worst relative Corsi defender on the Wild.

Another angle to consider is the quality of the players he generally skated with. His most regular defense partners over the last three years have been Zanon, Tom Gilbert, Jared Spurgeon, and Keith Ballard. With these partners he was perpetually one of the Wild defenseman who started in the defensive zone at a higher relative percentage to offensive zone starts than either the most, or near most on the team over that timeframe. It's easy to see why getting the greatest percentage of his starts in the defensive zone with a fellow non-offensive minded defenseman that his Corsi numbers wouldn't look that great. Add to it that the forwards he played most with were the likes of Dany Heatley, Kyle Brodziak, and Nino Niederreiter. This past season nobody on the Wild saw a relative lower quality of teammate measured by percentage of ice time than Stoner, and he's been consistently on the minus side of this while facing opposition that's on relative slightly better.

It's important to note that the darlings of the advanced stats community and Stanley Cup champion Kings had four defenseman (Alec Martinez, Willie Mitchell, Slava Voynov, and Robyn Regehr) who were negative CFr% players this season. Voynov, Mitchell, and Jeff Schultz were all negative CFr% players in the playoffs. Granted in each case the players in question had a positive Corsi For percentage, but that's where you tie in the Kings shoot the puck a lot. CFr% taken in a vacuum does a disservice to the mentioned Kings defensemen, and completely ignores the style of game the team plays.

Keep in mind none of this is to say that Murray and the Ducks picked up a Norris caliber defenseman, and it would be foolish to expect the team to acquire a top pair defender through free agency. Fans can argue the need for physical defenseman has diminished, but it hasn't gone away completely (see: Regehr, Schultz) either. As evidenced by last season, it's also important to have several NHL-caliber defensemen in case of injuries.

Signing Clayton Stoner is not a 'sexy' move. But before you can label it a failure, you have to see how he performs with his new teammates in a new system in Anaheim. Games aren't played on paper, and though the ultimate champs were kings of the Corsi, they didn't meet the team out of the East with the same statistical pedigree.

While it may not have the inspirational quality of the Kesler acquisition, for argument's sake the signing of Stoner isn't quite the sky falling like some fans seem to think.

LA's captain enjoyed another controversy-free season

dCorsi Chart (from @MimicoHero)

Positives

Brown was an effective two-way player.  He posted good possession numbers on Kopitar's wing (59.4%) and also did quite well with Jarret Stoll on the third line (57.7%). One of the huge benefits of the Gaborik trade was that it allowed Brown (and later Justin Williams) to reinforce what had been a lackluster bottom six. Brown generated 9.35 shots/60, the third highest rate on the team and the third best mark of Brown's career (trailing only 2008-09 and 2012-13).

Brown's 37 penalties drawn and +11 penalty differential were both first on the Kings. As impressive as those numbers are, they're not what Brown has produced in the past, and I suspect referees are starting to give him less benefit of the doubt. Brown drew an ungodly 60 penalties for a +35 differential two years ago - to put that in context, the NHL leader this season in penalty differential (Matt Duchene) was just +24. For the record, I don't think it's all diving. Plenty of players take every opportunity to dive, and none of them come close to matching Brown's penalty-drawing track record over the past several years. His utter shamelessness is of course part of it, but his agitation, speed, and willingness to try fancy stickhandling moves are all factors. Anyway, he continued to help the Kings out by drawing 13 penalties while taking only 7 in the playoffs. He's very good at this.

Brown's zone entries numbers show an involved and effective neutral zone player. His 50% carry-in rate exceeds the team average of 44% and compares well to fellow wingers Carter (48%), Toffoli (48%), and Williams (46%). Brown did have a relatively high number of failed entries (23%) - probably a consequence of frequently trying to stickhandle into the zone rather than dump the puck in.

After receiving his first suspension in 2012-13, Brown did not get into trouble with the Department of Player Safety this year. He also avoided ruining the rookie season of any of the NHL's bright young stars, which is always a plus.

Negatives

Well, Brown didn't really score. Which is awfully concerning, considering that his mammoth contract extension doesn't actually start until next year. Some of the scoring decline is attributable to a decrease in ice time, especially on the power play, as the team around him improves. But if we look at just his 5v5 points/60, we can correct for that. It's not a pretty picture. (For context, 2.07 pts/60 is a median first liner, 1.72 a median second liner, 1.46 a median third liner.)

That looks bad. But the good news is this is probably a shooting luck blip. As I mentioned above, the underlying numbers are strong; the shot rate is still high and his lines are controlling play. But Brown shot a much lower percentage than he usually does (6.6%), and his linemates shot a much lower percentage than they usually do (5.9%), and when those things combine it looks pretty ugly.

I wouldn't bet on Brown quite returning to his scoring prime, given what we know about forward aging, but a reasonable bounceback to a decent second line scoring level seems likely. See this article for more on Brown's scoring.

A Highlight

Lundqvist's confidence never recovered after this goal. He conceded the cup-winning goal to Martinez just two days later. Not a coincidence.

Roman Emperor Comparable: Caracalla

It's debatable which of Rome's many terrible emperors did the most long-term damage to empire, but I have little doubt that Caracalla (ruled 209-217) was the worst human being ever to occupy the throne. Caracalla murdered his brother in front of their own mother to gain sole rulership over the empire. He then used that power to terrorize his people. His penchant for traveling the empire spreading cruelty led the 18th century historian Edward Gibbon to call him "the common enemy of mankind." In one famous incident the citizens of Alexandria put on a play satirizing the Caracalla's brutality, and the emperor responded by ordering his soldiers to slaughter the city's inhabitants. In another underhanded move Caracalla offered to marry the king of Parthia's daughter, only to have the unsuspecting Parthian wedding party massacred upon arrival.

Anyway, this all sounds like the kind of stuffDustin Brownwould do. The Alexandrians know your pain, Tomas Hertl.

Looking Forward

Brown's contract means he's going to be in LA for some time. His scoring is likely to recover from his recent slump so I'm not worried about the next one or two years. Beyond that, though, this contract is probably going to start looking bad and LA would do well to move it (ideally after his shooting luck rebounds a bit) should the opportunity arise.

Grade

I'll give him a B, which is probably higher than most. But I like his underlying numbers and I don't want to penalize him too much for what was basically bad luck. If his lines keep putting up extremely low shooting percentages in the future I'll start to worry; as it is, this was probably just an unfortunate blip for a pretty decent player.

WHICH KINGS CARRIED THE PUCK IN? Who dumped it? Robyn Regehr is a dump.

If you've read Jewels from the Crown all season, then you'll have an idea of what this post will be about. If you have not then this is a great primer. You can get a better feel for what lies ahead in my older posts on the subject like this or this.

The general idea of zone entries goes as follows: carrying the puck in is good and dumping the puck in is less than ideal. Carry-ins definitively produce more shots on goal than their chip-and-chase counterparts. As a team, the Kings produced 0.68 shots per carry-in compared to 0.35 shots per dump-in. That's obviously a significant difference.

With that knowledge, it's kind of distressing to find that the Kings carry the puck in at a significantly below average rate. The league average for carry-ins is around 50%, and the Kings sit at a paltry 44% for the season.

Which individual players really excelled in this regard? Kings forwards were led by Marian Gaborik, who controlled the puck on 73% of his entries. It was a tiny sample, but it's still a stunning figure. He was followed by Linden Vey (66%), Anze Kopitar (65%), Mike Richards (53%), Dustin Brown (50%) and Tanner Pearson (50%). The rest of the Kings forwards sit below 50%. Even 50% for forwards is moderately misleading. That's the league average, but I'd wager league average for forwards is probably a bit higher, given that they're more often the ones with skill and the ones leading the rush. In all honesty, probably the only above average puck carriers in the forward group are Kopitar and Gaborik.

It's somewhat surprising to me that players like Jeff Carter and Justin Williams sit below 50%. Jeff Carter is so fast that it seems like he would be able to back off the defense to create space at the blue line with relative ease. However, he controlled the puck on just 48% of his zone entries. On the other hand, Justin Williams is such a smart and skilled player that he seems like he would excel at this type of thing, but it seems that his skills sit more in puck recovery than anything. With that said, we'll have more on him later.

On the defensive side of the puck, Drew Doughty blows away the competition. This should surprise no one. Among players with a sizable sample, he's actually second on the team in controlled entry success at 60%. He had more carry-ins (146) than Robyn Regehr or Willie Mitchell had zone entries altogether (121 and 128, respectively).

Doughty also had a pretty surprising lack of failed carry-ins. Defensemen generally speaking suffer fewer failed entries than forwards, but it's still shocking that he fails so infrequently given how often he handles the puck. Just 15.1% of his carry-in attempts failed. This is a better figure than every single Kings forward. Not only is he exceptionally talented, but he picks his spots well and displays incredible hockey sense.

As far as the other puck-movers go, Jake Muzzin leads the way. He and Slava Voynov actually had identical 34% success rates, but Muzzin had just slightly more impact by entering the zone more often. Muzzin had 3.28 carry-ins per 60 minutes, while Voynov sat at 2.57. Alec Martinez trails the puck-movers with a paltry 20% carry-in rate.

The defensive defensemen are too depressing to even discuss really, but I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that Matt Greene had just 3 carry-ins this season. All season. 3. In 475.4 5v5 minutes. He had 3. How does that even happen? It seems like by accident you should have more than that. He did not. Amazing.

Pure success rate isn't all we're interested in though. I determined that Jake Muzzin had more impact than Slava Voynov by pointing out that he involves himself in the play slightly more often. Which other players have big impact on the game, even if it isn't displayed in pure percentages? This is where Justin Williams makes his mark.

'Stick' is a neutral zone machine, plain and simple. The guy just does not stop gaining the offensive blue line. He probably is still doing it right now. His 494 total entries (27.2 entries/60) lead the team by a mile. Though his controlled entry success rate sits at just 46%, he gains the blue line so often that he still wound up second on the team in total carry-ins with 227 (Kopitar had 277 to lead the way).

Dustin Brown was also excellent at getting involved in the play, as Andrew described in Brown's season review. His 26.3 entries/60 and 13.16 carry-ins/60 are both good for second on the team. I cannot stress enough that I still believe Brown is a very useful player that had a tough luck season. He is still a play-driving forward; nearly everything in his statistical profile suggests this. His contract will still probably turn out to be a disappointment, but he has some useful years ahead of him still.

At the other end of the spectrum is the dearly departed Linden Vey. Though Vey's percentages are good, he simply did not involve himself in the action that often. His 15.5 entries/60 rank dead last among Kings forwards. Though 66% of his entries came with control, he generated just 10.19 carry-ins/60, good for 8th on the team. That's not bad for a depth forward, and he certainly will grow into this league, but he has some work to do before Vancouver can anoint him their second-line center and then run him out of town.

At the team level, the Kings were rather successful compared to their opponents. Though the Kings themselves did not carry the puck into the zone that often (again, 44%), they only let their opposition control the puck on 39% of their entries. They also generated more entries, more shots per entry, more shots per dump-in, and more shots per carry-in. Perhaps the Kings were not an ideal neutral zone team given their propensity for dumping the puck in, but they were still better than their opponents nearly every night of the season. The only team that showed any ability to contend with them in this regard was Chicago, and, well, we got the cup suckers. Eat it.

Below I'll attach a sortable table so you can see just how infrequently Dwight King carried the puck in or if you want to imagine what life would be like if Matt Greene had legs. Enjoy!

Tonight we discuss the disappointing season of Kris Versteeg.

I remember driving home from the Blackhawks 5-4 shootout win over the Coyotes, on November 14th, when I heard the news that Kris Versteeg was coming back to Chicago.  Stan Bowman had to give up both Jimmy Hayes and Dylan Olsen, two youngsters without a spot in Chicago, in order to get Dale Tallon to pay half of Versteeg's $4.4 million dollar salary. I am not going to lie to you; I was giddy as all hell when I heard about the trade.  I loved Kris Versteeg in 2009 & 2010, and I was excited that I could dust off my old 32 red sweater with the 2010 Stanley Cup Final patch.  But, little did I know that was going to be the most excitement Versteeg would whip up during his season with the Blackhawks.

Versteeg's first game back, a 7-2 beating in Nashville, should have been an ominous sign.  Rumor had it that the team was out celebrating his return the night before and the results on the ice sure looked like it.  Versteeg picked up four points in his first four games back and finished with 29 (10 G, 19) in his 63 games in Chicago.  That isn't awful production for a bottom six player and not far below his career average of 0.58 points per game.  His possession numbers were not terrible either.  He finished the regular season with a 54.6 CF% which was the 10th best on the team.  The team's save percentage was 93% when Versteeg was on the ice, which was the highest of any Blackhawk.  He had a 69% point share, meaning he had a point in 69% of the goals scored when he was on the ice, the 5th best on the team.  He was often criticized for his defense, but he was eight among the forwards with 24 takeaways.

Again, those are nice numbers for a bottom six forward but when you consider the four players he spent the most time on ice with were Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad, Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith you'd expect to see better numbers across the board.  You can sugar coat the numbers all you want but the bottom line is Kris Versteeg was bad, real bad.  He was given plenty of time to play on the second line and got nearly two minutes a night on the power play but could not produce at a consistent rate.

I loved the Kris Versteeg who wore 32, but the Kris Versteeg who wore 23 was hot garbage.  The bad decision making we were used to seeing out of the young Versteeg was still part of his game.  Back in 2010, he had the speed to make up for those mistakes but less than a year removed from major knee surgery, the speed just wasn't there.  He passed when he should of shot and shot when he should have passed.  He tried to skate through multiple defenders only to turnover the puck.  Too many of the same mental mistakes are inexcusable.  Joel Quenneville grew weary of the bad play during the playoffs and benched him once against the Wild and again against the Kings.  Even when he was in the lineup his playing time was dramatically decreased.  He skated less than 10 minutes in a third of the games he played in, including just 3:44 in the season ending loss to Los Angeles.

Many people want Stan Bowman to ease the salary cap strain by sending Versteeg packing this summer.  Unfortunately, I don't see much of a market for the 28 year old winger.  The best the Hawks can hope for is that a full summer of rehab can get Versteeg somewhat back to the player we traded away in the summer of 2010.  If he can be productive next season I could see Bowman moving him within the season.  Hopefully he will more productive not only for the team's sake but so he can also no longer lead the NHL in making fans break the 4th Commandment.

Final Grade : D

Did we miss something?

I get the feeling that we didn't get to see enough of Derek Dorsett in a Rangers jersey. Dorsett, who was one of the pieces the Rangers acquired in the deal that sent Gaborik to Columbus, was the victim of a salary dump trade that unceremoniously ended his brief tenure in New York. In a lot of ways, I feel like we didn't get to see the best of Dorsett. Dorsett was a fan and locker room favorite in Columbus because of the way he played. A lot of us, including me, felt like Dorsett could've been the next Brandon Prust, but that was not to be. Dorsett was rarely used on the penalty kill and he never was used in a role that allowed him to apply much pressure in the offensive zone. Dorsett will perhaps best be remembered for temporarily losing his roster spot to Daniel Carcillo and for struggling with injury issues as a Ranger. Without further random speculation about what might have been, let's take a look at his final season in New York.

Summary of Dorsett's Year

Back in November I wrote a piece about Dorsett's role on the team and what he brought to the Rangers' bottom six. I remarked then how nice it was to have a guy who drew more penalties than he took on the fourth line and how he could be the first Ranger since Chris Simon to eclipse 200 PIM. In 51 regular season games with the Rangers Dorsett had 4 goals and 4 assists to go along with 128 PIM. Those 128 PIM were the most on the team by a wide margin despite the fact that Dorsett played just a little over half the season in 2013-14. At the end of the regular season Dorsett had taken more penalties than he had drawn (that didn't work out the way we all hoped) and he received a team-leading 10 fighting majors. The Rangers needed a tough guy in the lineup and Dorsett was happy to be the guy that stuck up for teammates. He dropped the gloves even when he was fighting out of his weight class (he almost always was). He was the Rangers wrecking ball and, for the most part, he played his role quite well.

Despite all of his shortcomings, Derek Dorsett gave the Rangers exactly what they needed on their fourth line. He was an excellent forechecker, he defended his teammates, and he hit everything that that wasn't a Ranger when he was on the ice. If he had stayed healthy and buried another couple of goals in the regular season or in the playoffs I am sure we all would have been a great deal more upset about the Dorsett salary dump trade. But, the fact of the matter is, he didn't score very often and he certainly didn't stay healthy...

Injured and Out of the Lineup

Back in 2013, Dorsett started his career as a Ranger in the press box (he was injured when the Rangers acquired him). It's a good thing that we got used to seeing him in a suit early on because that became a bit of a theme for him over his two seasons and postseasons in New York. He played his first game as a Ranger in the 2013 NHL Playoffs after being acquired on deadline day. In the 2013-14 season, his first (and last) full season with the Rangers, Dorsett suffered a serious injury that knocked him out of the lineup for nearly two months. In early January "Dorse" broke his fibula blocking a shot against the Penguins. Dorsett was doing everything he could do to contribute to the Rangers and stay in the lineup, and by giving that 110% effort he ended up with a broken leg. A broken leg that immediately knocked him out of the lineup and caused the Rangers to acquire more competition for his role with the team. Hockey can be pretty cruel sometimes, huh? The Rangers wasted no time and made a trade to acquire Dan Carcillo from the Los Angeles Kings less than 24 hours after Dorsett broke his leg, and from that moment on Dorsett fought not only for his ice time for the rest of the season and the 2014 Playoffs, he also fought to hold onto his roster spot.

Dorsett was in direct competition with J.T. Miller and Dan Carcillo for a roster spot from the moment he returned from his injury in March. Dorsett ended up playing 23 postseason games with the Rangers in 2014 and was a healthy scratch in two postseason games. Dorsett had 1 assist and 29 PIM for the Rangers in their most important postseason in twenty years. It was better than he did in the 2013 Playoffs but, on paper, it just wasn't enough.

Traded Away and Replaced... Again

Even with the Brad Richards buyout the Rangers needed to get rid of some salary to bring back their key RFAs and to have some money to play with in free agency. Derek Dorsett ended up being the guy that the Rangers parted ways with to create some cap space. Derek Dorsett and his $1.633 million cap hit went to Vancouver and the Rangers received a draft pick in return for their resident wrecking ball. The Rangers used the money they freed up in the Dorsett deal to bring in Tanner Glass, of all people, for three years at $1.45 million. Glass is almost certainly going to be used in the same role that Dorsett was used in; as the twelfth forward on a team that gives its third line a lot of ice time. So, the Rangers ended up saving $183,000 to make a noteworthy downgrade on their fourth line that they'll be stuck with for three seasons. I don't think that it will take long for Rangers fans to start missing Derek Dorsett and what he brought to the team when we see him contributing on Vancouver's bottom six... or when we get our first look at Tanner Glass in a Rangers jersey. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong. Don't count your Glasses before they hatch.

It's strange to see Dorsett come and go after playing just 75 games with the Rangers over two seasons. Just how much will the Rangers miss him when we see what Glass brings, or rather doesn't bring, to the fourth line? It's hard to get worried about replacing a guy on the fourth line but Dorsett was a guy that was used in a lot of roles in Columbus and was once able to put up 12 goals in a season (Tanner Glass has 18 goals in his entire career). I still think that we didn't get to see enough of Dorsett. I feel like he could have been a big part of the team's character and bottom six for a long time. I wish him all the best in Vancouver and for the rest of his career in the NHL. Go get ‘em Dorse.

While the Rangers have been fairly inactive this offseason, it could just be a sign that organization has truly undergone a philosophical change.

The New York Rangers, organizationally, have been a work in progress for quite some time. The team has always been buyers, but for most of the last two decades, has been bad at evaluating and developing young talent.

The free agents signings (and missteps) piled up—Wade Redden, Scott Gomez, and Chris Drury to name a few. Other players to walk through the revolving door included Bryan McCabe, Derek Morris, and Alex Frolov. At the very least, these were attempts at improving the Rangers. In pointing the finger at management, no one could accuse the Rangers' brass of twiddling its thumbs near the cap floor.

But change was still in order.

So the team recalculated its approach, and took a more measured look at things. Jeff Gorton deserves a lot of credit in this remodeling, as does Glen Sather. They've worked in tandem to create organizational depth, while filling in the remaining holes through trading surplus talent, or taking advantage of the team's ability to spend.

The latter part of that strategy brought aboard the likes of Marian Gaborik (who was flipped for depth) and Rick Nash, while the former collected Martin St. Louis.

All of this means evaluating the Rangers current offseason moves (or lack thereof) is twofold. New York has tried its hand at buying winning rosters, and failed in those attempts. Everything the team hasn't done since free agency began speaks more to Sather and co.'s growth, and the lessons they've learned on the job.

Benoit Pouliot and Anton Stralman, two players who made their money through strong performances in New York, were allowed to walk this offseason. There's an argument to be made for retaining Stralman, while what's undeniable is the Rangers got great return on their investment at the price they were paying. The two players made a combined $3.1 million last year, a number they'll each both exceed now annually.

The key now for the Rangers is to resume the cycle, and bring new players into the fold who can perform the job at a cheaper rate.

It's very much like how sectors of our workforce are built, especially in times of economic recession. With companies are working with limited money (say, something like a salary cap), when employees' value become too high to retain, they're let go, only to be replaced by young, cheap laborers.

The Rangers seemed to have learned their lesson. The risk-reward in giving Pouliot $1.3 million last offseason was very evident. Mats Zuccarello was a player plucked away from the Swedish Elite League, who will only now make a cap impact. Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin, Ryan McDonagh, Marc Staal, and Dan Girardi are all homegrown. Some of them have begun to ink those big-money extensions, but it was always house money on the table.

With how close the Rangers came to winning a Cup this season, it's easy to say Sather should go for the jugular; that he should finagle a trade for Joe Thornton, or that he should have shed cap space to go after Paul Stastny.

There's also more at play than what's on the surface, and the dream scenarios one can plug into CapGeek. There's the likes of J.T. Miller, Jesper Fast, Danny Kristo, Oscar Lindberg, and, in the near future, Anthony Duclair and Brady Skjei. Bringing other players into the fold only mortgages their futures, which, by the accounts of those in charge of evaluating talent for the organization, are bright. They won't all pan out, but should any of them not, they'll be a much cheaper mistake than an ill-advised splash in free agency.

What's clearest at this point is the Rangers have undergone a transformation of sorts. Sure, Dan Boyle can be considered a marquee move on the market. But not only does he constitute the team's only major transaction, but that stockpiled young talent was immediately addressed as soon as roster spots opened up. He also fills an immense need as a true power play quarterback for a team who has had power play struggles since Brian Leech was traded. That wasn't the case in the past for the franchise, which seems to be growing deeper by the year.

It's also difficult to feel content with little to no activity. Free agent signings are exciting. They mark change. Change is good when you don't accomplish your ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup. But there's a (literal) price that comes with rash decision making and overreacting to how the season ended. Improvements can certainly be made to this Rangers' team, but if they can't be made at the right value, they're not worth entertaining.

That might have been the biggest lesson the Rangers' brass needed to learn from the dark days. Now it seems like it's a lesson learned.

dCorsi Chart (from @Mimicohero)

(Be careful about the 2011-12 number. I'm not sure if dCorsi can properly account for an in-season team change.)

Positives

Jeff Carter was a very good possession player in 2013-14. He spent about 40 percent of his time on Kopitar's wing and did well (59.6 Corsi%). His results away from Kopitar don't seem exceptional (54.8%), but are actually quite good because when not with Kopitar, Carter was often with LA's weaker possession forwards (a lot of time with Mike Richards, very little with Justin Williams). Carter played at least 50 5v5 minutes with 8 forwards not named Kopitar; 6 of those 8 had better possession numbers with Carter than without him.

Carter scored .897 goals/60 at 5v5,  63rd in the league and 2nd on the Kings. He managed that despite shooting just 7.82% at 5v5, short of his career average (9.83%.) Carter was productive even with mediocre shooting luck because he attempted 5v5 shots at the 7th highest rate in the league. Check out his shot rate by year (from Hockey Analysis):

It's encouraging that his shot rates have jumped back up to elite levels after two years of decline.

Carter's zone entries (tabulated by our very own Nick Chapin; read his excellent summary here) have some positives. His 22.17 entries/60 is fairly high and shows an active player in the neutral zone. His entries were also of particularly high quality, as his .79 shots per carry in ranks 3rd among Kings forwards. That's more evidence of his excellent shot generation abilities.

I would have given Carter the Conn Smythe. He was the driving force behind the tremendous postseason success of the 70s line. Carter, Toffoli, and Pearson combined to post the best possession numbers on the team and were extremely productive even with relatively normal puck luck.

Negatives

Not a ton to worry about here. Carter didn't replicate his insane goalscoring of 2012-13, but he was never going to (he shot over 16% at 5v5 that year). I actually think his 2013-14 is more promising than his 2012-13, given the uptick in shot rate. More goals should come next year.

Carter only controlled 48.27% of his entries. That's 7th among Kings forwards, so not a terrible number. But it's below the league average of 50% and seems low for such a fast and skilled player. Only one skilled forward on the Kings (Dustin Brown) had a higher percentage of controlled entry attempts fail than Carter, who was unsuccessful 21.6% of the time. That means Carter was probably more willing than most to take risks and attempt controlled entries while under pressure. It's strange that a player as talented as Carter, playing fairly aggressively, had a pretty average carry-in %. Maybe Carter was unlucky, or just didn't do a great job of picking his spots this year.

I should clarify that a high failed entry % is not necessarily a bad thing in a skilled forward. Current research suggests turning the puck over while attempting a carry-in produces results only slightly worse than dumping the puck in. Since controlled entries are very beneficial if successful and not that harmful if failed, players should try for them aggressively. If a skilled player's failed entry % is really low, that player is likely playing too conservatively and could help his team out by attempting riskier entries, even though many of them will fail. So I don't mind that Carter is taking risks.

Highlight

Hilarious. The Bob Miller call on this one is incredible, by the way.

Roman Emperor Comparable: Augustus

Augustus (ruled 27 BC-14 AD) was the first Roman Emperor and, by the reckoning of most modern historians, the best one. Coming into power after decades of chaotic civil war, Augustus firmly established a system of one-man rule that would last half a millennium. He paved the way for the Pax Romana, a 200 year period during which Roman citizens enjoyed, for the most part, peace, good governance, and rising prosperity. He sponsored the poets Virgil and Horace, whose works are usually regarded as the very best of Roman literature. Near the end of his life Augustus boasted that he had found Rome a city of brick and left it a city of marble, and he had a point.

Likewise, Jeff Carter's arrival in Los Angeles marked the beginning of a golden age. In the 44 years before he arrived, the Kings made it past the second round once. With Carter, they are three for three. Carter is obviously not the sole driving force behind all this, but he is a major reason why right now is the best time to be a Kings fan there has ever been.

It's worth noting that Augustus' achievements did not come without cost. His rise to power was a brutal process, during which he ruthlessly executed many political opponents. Jeff Carter has a similar story, as he only arrived in LA after leaving the Columbus Blue Jackets franchise a smoldering ruin. But as with Augustus, the end results have been so dazzling that no one worries much about the less appealing backstory.

Going Forward

Carter is aging excellently so far. He's been a major bargain at a $5.27 million cap hit and probably will be for several years to come. Carter shifted from wing to center late last year, but no one is really sure where he'll start off 2014-15. Like most people who are not Blackhawks fans, I'd love to see the Pearson-Carter-Toffoli line continue.

Grade

An easy A for me.  Carter had a very good regular season and was even better in the playoffs. Disagree? Then get the fuck out make your case in the comments.

With Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane breaking the $10 million salary barrier, we can't help but notice a looming contract in the distance...

Yesterday, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews signed matching eight-year deals to stay with the Chicago Blackhawks long-term. That was a big deal as is, but even more noteworthy was their salary: $10.5 million. This makes them the first players to exceed a $10 million cap hit since the salary cap was put in place after the 2004-05 lockout.

With the cap rising to $69 million this season and (eventually) past the $70 million mark, player salaries are only going to rise. Kane and Toews won't be the last ten-million-dollar players.

Which brings us to Anze Kopitar.

With seven of the Los Angeles Kings' key players locked up through at least 2019, Dean Lombardi is largely going to be able to avoid giving his core players the kind of massive deal that Kane and Toews got. There's one exception, though, and it's Kopitar. Kopitar's contract is up in the summer of 2016, and you can bet that as soon as July of 2015 hits, Lombardi will be looking to lock Kopitar up. (Recall that Dustin Brown was re-signed on July 18, 2013, even with a year still remaining on his deal.)

Kopitar was arguably the Kings' MVP this season, and after leading the Kings in scoring in six straight seasons (and in both the 2012 and 2014 championship runs), he's finally begun to earn respect from the rest of the NHL. We'll wait until his 2014 season review to fully praise him, but needless to say, he's going to be the highest-paid player on the Kings when he's re-signed. And he'll deserve it.

The question, though: will Kopitar join Kane and Toews in breaking the $10 million barrier? Arguments for a $10 million deal include his obvious excellence at both ends of the ice, his key role on two Stanley Cup squads, and the lack of other LA contracts with a huge cap hit. Arguments against include Lombardi's emphasis on term over salary, his potential willingness to take a hometown discount, and his lack of league-wide individual accolades. Again, the question is not whether he deserves a $10 million deal, but whether he'll actually get it.

Fire away with your thoughts in the comments.

The White Walker in the red sweater.

In the beer soaked aftermath of the 2013 Stanley Cup victory, the front office decided to try and squeeze one more year of life out of Michal Handzus, re-signing the vet for 1 year, $1 million. The idea being he could be an insurance policy at the bottom of the roster if every other plan down the middle went belly up.

Regular Season

Of course, that theory went out the window when Brandon Pirri got hurt in training camp and didn't make the squad. Handzus shot up the depth chart, opening the year with Hossa and Sharp on his wings. Even upon Pirri’s quick return, Handzus remained the centerman of 2L. It became fairly obvious, fairly quickly, that he couldn't handle the assignment. After a December where Patrick Kane was named 1st Star of the Month by the NHL, and with roughly half the season under their belts, Kane had yet to score with Handzus on the ice at 5s. That is almost as mind boggling as people disliking the Toews/Kane extensions. For the duration of the season the tandem scored three times when on the ice at even strength together. Handzus was second among forwards (Saad) in time logged with Kane, so this is not a small sample size. A lot of this isn’t on him as he can only skate the shifts he’s asked to. This review should be about a guy that was a 4th liner/penalty killer/healthy scratch and not someone playing pivot for one of the most dynamic set of hands in the league. But we go by the facts and this chart from Jen is as damning as it gets. Handzus did good things. He was a critical part of solidifying the penalty kill after the turn of the calendar. He inspired the Handzus Ailments twitter account.

Playoffs

As the postseason rolled around, Handzus was relegated to the PK and the odd shift here and there. While he spent most of the time looking like an old man chasing a turtle, he did provide a highlight reel gamewinner against the Kings. The problems became more evident as the postseason wore on and he couldn’t do what he is purportedly good at. He was over 50% at the dot for only 8 of 19 contests. His lack of wheels made him a defensive liability and he continued to be a possession blackhole. For all his blocked shot prowess on the kill, a lot due to scrambling from being too slow to stay in position, his shorthanded TOI% waned in each series as the opponents got better. When the PK dried up against the Kings, so did any remaining iota of usefulness Handzus had in a Hawks sweater.

Future Considerations

Following the exit in the Western Conference Final, the Blackhawks noted that they would not be re-signing Handzus. The old warhorse will be forced to ply his trade elsewhere assuming anyone wants to take a flier on a 37 year old that can’t move anymore. However, teams do some crazy things like give John Scott money or trade for Brandon Bollig. Zus will probably catch on somewhere that "needs a winning influence from a veteran" or something. He can still add a bit to an NHL team that needs someone to occasionally win a draw and absorb pucks meatbagging on a second unit penalty kill. Don’t be surprised if an eastern conference team signs him to a pittance in the coming weeks. Happy trails, old buddy.

Tough to grade a guy that was asked to do things he had no business doing, but those are the breaks. Handzus gets a D.

He ended his season perfectly, but what happened before the final play?

dCorsi Table

(stats via Behind the Net and @mimicohero)

Positives

Fact:  Kyle Clifford is a fourth-liner. Fact: the fourth line was better with him than it was without him. Check out his stats with and without his five most frequent linemates:

(stats via Hockey Analysis)

The trend? The low-offense, bottom six forwards saw improved possession numbers with Clifford, though higher-end guys such as Mike Richards and Tyler Toffoli were held back quite a bit. Though he was a healthy scratch from time to time, he outplayed Nolan, Fraser, and Dan Carcillo to earn his spot for the playoffs. And aside from Nolan, he's the only King who fought more than twice; if LA sees a need to keep a fighter around, you could do worse than Clifford.

As as much as anyone, Clifford gets points for finishing strong. His best game of the season just might have been Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals, and he was rewarded with a secondary assist on the most famous goal in Los Angeles Kings' history.

He also stole the show during the Stanley Cup celebrations, thanks to his baby (who is somehow more adorable in person).

Dad of the year Kyle Clifford: pic.twitter.com/qEvuZ7VGeX

— Seth Rorabaugh (@emptynetters) June 16, 2014

Negatives

Clifford was going to have a difficult time matching his goal-scoring productivity from last season (second on the team in goals/60 minutes!), but when his 5v5 shooting percentage plummeted from 13.2% to 4.1%, it led to a grand total of... three goals. However, even if Clifford had been shooting at the same rate this season, he would have dropped off due to worse possession numbers. As shown by the table at the top of this page, Clifford's performance this year was much more like 2012 (when he was up-and-down and scratched during the playoffs) then 2013.

Game Five of the Stanley Cup Final showed another reason why Clifford can be maddening. He was excellent throughout, even creating scoring chances to go with his aggressive forechecking and energy, but he took a boarding penalty in the second overtime session which nearly put all of his efforts to waste. Clifford's -13 penalty differential was second-worst among forwards in the regular season, behind only Jarret Stoll, and it was markedly worse than last season's -4 in 48 games.

In last year's evaluation, we noted that Clifford's performance in 2013 indicated that he might be capable of a fill-in role in the Kings' top six. That ship has sailed. A lot of that is due to the arrival of Marian Gaborik and the emergence of Tanner Pearson. As shown in the WOWY table above, though, Clifford didn't do himself any favors in limited shifts with the Kings' top players.

Highlight

Clifford forechecks hard, forces a turnover, and goes to the net. We get to see all of the reasons why Clifford can be a perfect fourth-line forward in about ten seconds.

(Clifford joins Colin Fraser in the "Scored the Kings' first goal of the Stanley Cup Final" club, too.)

Looking Forward

Here we are again, talking about Kyle Clifford's ceiling. Clifford is 23 years old, and every bit of criticism he gets may be countered with that fact. But after taking a big step forward last season, Clifford was at best stagnant in his progress this season. Clifford survived a whirlwind of trade rumors (Clifford for Sam Gagner?!) and should be able to hold off Jordan Nolan and Adam Cracknell for the fourth line left wing spot. Unlike last year, though, there's basically zero chance of him jumping Gaborik, Pearson, or Dwight King long-term.

Grade

Kind of a difficult one to call. Clifford outperformed most of the rotating crew of players that took up the Kings' fourth line during the regular season, but he lagged well behind the rest of the Kings' forwards. Should we punish him for that, considering how good the Kings' forward corps is?

Eh, he gets a C. Assisting on the Stanley Cup-winning goal earns you the benefit of the doubt.

Johnny Oduya quietly played one of the toughest seasons of any NHL defenseman this season. Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville used Oduya and his defense partner, Niklas Hjalmarsson, as the shutdown pairing. While many still think of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook as the number 1 defense pairing for Chicago, that label is a bit misleading. While Keith and Seabrook did face some tough competition, they were used in ways to optimize their offensive prowess. They had the benefit of more optimal zone starts (i.e. less defensive zone starts) and significant time on the ice with the first line of Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp.

Oduya and Hjalmarsson took the heavier burden in terms of defensive zone starts (-9.5% and -10.2% ZS% Relative to their teammates). The pairing also faced the toughest competition of the defensemen on the team. Oduya faced 29.7% QoC (Quality of Competition) which was good for 6^th in the league among defensemen who appeared in at least 62 games. Hjalmarsson ranked 5^th at 29.8%. The only other defensemen facing tougher QoC were Dion Phaneuf (TOR), Carl Gunnarsson (TOR since traded to STL), Zdeno Chara (BOS) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (PHX).

In facing the tough task of playing against the opponent's top lines and starting out of the defensive zone more often, one would expect that Oduya's possession numbers would not be very impressive. To the contrary, they were impressive. Oduya ranked 14^th in the league in Corsi Against Per 20 (CA20) among defensemen playing at least 200 minutes at 5v5 Score Close. For a little context, 8 of the players ahead of him played for the New Jersey Devils, who are a very low event hockey team. When we look at Oduya's numbers from a Fenwick perspective, we find he ranked 10^th in the league in Fenwick Against Per 20 (FA20) with the players ahead of him split between the Devils, LA Kings and Blackhawks.

Oduya and Hjalmarsson pulled off some of the toughest zone starts relative to their teammates of the defensemen in the league facing the toughest competition. The really impressive thing about that is that they have suppressed their opponents' shots very well. Only Andy Greene of the Devils has shown better shot suppression among this group of defensemen in comparable relative zone starts. Drew Doughty of the LA Kings is the only other defensemen in the same category of shot suppression but with less difficult zone starts relative to his teammates.

In terms of his teammates, Oduya's usage is evident from the two graphs above. Seabrook and Keith are involved more heavily in generating shots. Leddy is stuck in the middle of his two regular partners on defense. Leddy, Rozsival and Brookbank had the most offensive and neutral zone start percentages combined and played against easier competition than the other defensive pairings. Oduya moved the puck out of the defensive zone well despite he and Hjalmarsson being on the lower end of generating shots for the team.

The graph above shows Oduya's numbers for Goals Against per 20 (blue line) and the Goals Against per 20 for his team when he is not on the ice (red line). The first few seasons are with the Devils, then in February of 2010 Oduya went to the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets and finally in February of 2012, landed in Chicago. This season, the GA20 rate was significantly lower when Oduya was on the ice as opposed to the team rate.

This graph is set up the same way as the last, but shows Fenwick Against per 20 (FA20) for Oduya (blue line) and the team rate of FA20 when he is not on the ice (red line). Again, Oduya's FA20 rate was better than the team rate suggesting he and Hjalmarsson did a better job of suppressing their opponent's shots (Fenwick = SOG + missed shots).

Oduya is not a big goal producer, but his Points Per 60 (P/60) rate has stayed fairly consistent since coming to Chicago.

This season, Oduya also logged heavy minutes on the Penalty Kill for the Blackhawks. The team used Oduya and Hjalmarsson for the heavier zone starts, although on the PK, that is a very relative term. Seabrook and Keith had a little bit more favorable zone starts in order to spur possession to move into the opponent's zone.

The graph above shows the player's Fenwick For Percentage Relative to his teammates along with the player's defensive zone start percentage while on the Penalty Kill. The correlation between the two metrics is quite strong, so it is expected that Oduya would not be driving shots the other way while holding down the heavier penalty killing responsibilities.

Despite the heavy zone starts on the PK, Oduya had the best FA20 rate of the penalty killers, meaning the lowest shots against (unblocked) rate.

Throughout the season, Oduya was asked to play a very difficult and unglamorous role for the Blackhawks. Essentially, he had to do a lot of the dirty work without getting all of the glory that comes to the high scoring defensemen like Seabrook and Norris Trophy Winner Keith. His reliability and consistency against the toughest competition allowed the Blackhawks to maximize the offensive talents of the other defensemen and execute the game plan that brought them within one goal of another Stanley Cup Final appearance.

OVERALL GRADE: A

*data used herein was collected from:

www.extraskater.com

stats.HockeyAnalysis.com

www.nhl.com