Quantcast
Channel: SB Nation - Los Angeles Kings
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 2313

Alec Martinez Extension Might Be a Mistake

$
0
0

Alec Martinez isn't a top-four defenseman & didn't take a hometown discount. What was Dean Lombardi thinking?

For some Kings fans, hearts were a-jazz hands on Wednesday, as popular defenseman Alec Martinez inked a six-year, $24 million dollar contract extension.

The 27-year-old was seen by some as "the quintessential break-the-bank unrestricted free agent" this summer. So good deal, right? According to our JftC poll, most of you liked it.

I am trying to break your heart.

Martinez Is Not a Top-Four Defenseman...Yet

Adam Proteau called the agreement "the going rate for second-pair defensemen these days," comparing it to Jake Muzzin's recent re-up. Muzzin, of course, was an impending RFA, not UFA.

Jason Lewis wrote that Martinez is "one of your better 4-6 defensemen in the league" in his otherwise solid reaction piece.

In Los Angeles, however, there's a real difference between a #4, second-pairing defender and a #5-6. Let's glance at the team's defensive ATOI since Martinez's rookie season:

2010-11 ATOI2011-12 ATOI

2012-13  ATOI

2013-14 ATOI
Drew Doughty25:38Drew Doughty24:53Drew Doughty26:23Drew Doughty25:42
Jack Johnson23:11Jack Johnson22:30Slava Voynov22:18Slava Voynov22:17
Willie Mitchell21:48Willie Mitchell22:13Rob Scuderi21:47Willie Mitchell20:19
Rob Scuderi20:17Rob Scuderi20:36Robyn Regehr21:16Jake Muzzin19:01
Matt Greene16:58Slava Voynov18:32Jake Muzzin17:53Robyn Regehr18:57
Alec Martinez15:16Matt Greene16:40Alec Martinez16:01Alec Martinez15:40
Alec Martinez14:43

And consider how sheltered his minutes were from 2010-14:

2010-11 5v5 DZFO %2011-12 5v5 DZFO %2012-13 5v5 DZFO %2013-14 5v5 DZFO %
WILLIE MITCHELL34.37MATT GREENE33.51ROB SCUDERI33.25ROBYN REGEHR30.71
JACK JOHNSON32.61WILLIE MITCHELL32.46ROBYN REGEHR33.01WILLIE MITCHELL30.54
MATT GREENE31.24DREW DOUGHTY30.3SLAVA VOYNOV32.17SLAVA VOYNOV29.49
ROB SCUDERI31.18ROB SCUDERI30.24DREW DOUGHTY28.56DREW DOUGHTY29.4
DREW DOUGHTY30.69SLAVA VOYNOV28.94KEATON ELLERBY26.58ALEC MARTINEZ28.07
DAVIS DREWISKE30.32ALEC MARTINEZ28.23JAKE MUZZIN25.77MATT GREENE27.54
ALEC MARTINEZ29.66ALEC MARTINEZ22.29JAKE MUZZIN27.1

Does this look like a solid #4? Or more like a #5-6?

Sure, past deployment doesn't necessarily indicate one's true value or potentialI don't live in a world where Ellerby or Regehr are superior blueliners to Martinez.

So fast forward to this campaign. It's well documented how Martinez has shouldered more responsibility because of Voynov's suspension:

2014-15 ATOI2014-15 5v5 DZFO %
Drew Doughty28:43Robyn Regehr38.26
Slava Voynov23:11Slava Voynov37.86
Jake Muzzin23:08Alec Martinez37.76
Alec Martinez19:45Matt Greene31.48
Robyn Regehr19:21Drew Doughty30.93
Matt Greene16:51Jake Muzzin28.13
Brayden McNabb16:41Brayden McNabb28.07
Jamie McBain11:55Jamie McBain25.33

His ATOI has jumped four minutes, while facing the current defensive unit's second-toughest zone starts. And A-Mart, in admittedly very few games, has not reacted well to his higher-leverage duties.

Courtesy of @MimicoHero

Chart courtesy of @MimicoHero.

Alarmingly, his 5v5 Fenwick Against has blown up like his bank account:

5v5 FF605v5 FA605v5 FF%
2014-1546.6148.9248.8
2013-1442.7833.3156.2
2012-1343.929.6659.7
2011-1247.0429.4361.5
2010-1143.5234.2256

As Eric pointed out, it's not just a Regehr thing.

So until proven otherwise, Martinez is a excellent #5-6 defenseman, who was given a long-term, top-four payout.

Martinez Did Not Take a Hometown Discount

Let's begin by putting some of the better defensemen from the 2014 and 2015 UFA classes side by side:

2014UFA Age2013-14 ATOIYearsCap Hit2015UFA Age2014-15 ATOI
Matt Niskanen2721:1775.75Francois Beauchemin3522:43
Brooks Orpik3321:1155.5Marc Staal2822:30
Dan Boyle3721:1624.5Johnny Boychuk3122:09
Anton Stralman2719:2454.5Paul Martin3422:03
Kyle Quincey2820:4824.25Christian Ehrhoff3221:56
Willie Mitchell3720:1924.25Marc Methot3021:45 (2013-14)
Andrej Meszaros2818:5414.125Zbynek Michalek3221:05
Christian Ehrhoff3123:5414Johnny Oduya3320:37
Mark Fayne2718:1843.625Mike Green2919:56
Tom Gilbert3121:2022.8Andrej Meszaros2919:11

2014's defensive group was better and younger than 2015's. But eyeing some of the going rates from last summer, who is most like Martinez? Among younger players, he's nowhere as established as Niskanen or Stralman.

So that leaves Fayne, a less-used, historically decent play-driver, as an acceptable comp for Martinez, even though the defensemen own differing skillsets. Yet, the Edmonton deal, which was already considered by some to be an overpayment, was two years shorter than LA's.

So while it's possible that Martinez would've received a significantly richer offersheet this summer, I doubt it, especially with the uncertainty surrounding next year's salary cap. Dean Lombardi paid about market value on both cap hit and term.

I repeat, he showered a good #5-6 guy with top-four dollars, which is a very UFA thing to do.

Looking Forward

So what was Lombardi thinking?

Again, this summer's UFA blueline crop is no peach. Yes, A-Mart seems to be a great fit in a tight locker room.

I think this was a "hope contract." On one hand, Martinez is 27 years old, so maybe we've already seen most of his upside. On the other hand, as my cohorts have argued in the past, maybe someone so "ridiculously good" in sheltered minutes just needs more time and trust to show his stuff. Obviously, I'm dubious.

And while early returns from Martinez this year seem to support my case, it's hard to argue with Lombardi's judgment...of talent, that is.

Addendum: And since you've made a substantial investment in Martinez, why not utilize said investment properly? Check the productivity of LA's most-used 5v4 defensemen since 2010 (Johnson's totals include his time in Columbus in 2011-12):

2010-15 5v45v4 TOI5v4 G/605v4 A/605v4 P/60
Alec Martinez384:411.402.343.74
Slava Voynov476:100.632.903.53
Jack Johnson604:370.302.682.98
Drew Doughty1065:160.841.692.53
Jake Muzzin354:420.681.692.37
2014-15 PP ATOI
Drew Doughty3:44
Jake Muzzin2:57
Slava Voynov2:43
Alec Martinez1:55
Jamie McBain1:52

All 2014-15 stats as of 12/4/14. Stats courtesy of Hockey AnalysisHockey ReferenceNHL.comPuckalytics, Sporting Charts, and War on Ice.


Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 2313

Trending Articles